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CAL

California 31 at Northwestern 24

NU
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:23 · Cole Leininger punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense−36.7Pregame prior+7.9Score differential−20.1Garbage-time factor−7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:15: James Langford 20 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +7.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:05: Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Langford KICK) — CAL win probability +13.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:31: Justin Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +13.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:06: Jayme Taylor pass complete to Trevor Siemian for 17 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +22.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:18: Jack Mitchell 24 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +9.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:42CAL 4th & 1 at NU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:44NU 4th & 1 at CAL 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−0.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:37NU 4th & 27 at NU 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−2.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:15CAL 4th & 2 at NU 2, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−9.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:47NU 4th & 2 at CAL 47, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:12CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 18, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−2.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:05NU 4th & 4 at NU 46, down 17
    Close callPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:51NU 4th & 3 at NU 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:06CAL 4th & 3 at NU 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−2.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−4.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:00NU 4th & 6 at NU 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:23CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 37, up 24
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:32NU 4th & 1 at CAL 14, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−1.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−6.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:54CAL 4th & 20 at NU 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−3.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−2.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:04NU 4th & 3 at CAL 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−2.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:33CAL 4th & 4 at NU 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.7%−1.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:18NU 4th & 4 at CAL 8, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.6%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−6.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:14CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:42CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:03CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:26NU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:07CAL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:05CAL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:31NU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:06NU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
21 plays · 79 yds · 6:1828% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
72.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 7 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
71.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
71.7%
Luke Rubenzer run for 11 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
71.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 8 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+1
71.4%
Luke Rubenzer run for 1 yd to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
71.4%
Jared Goff run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
71.3%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
71.2%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Daniel LascoSimilar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+13
71.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 13 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
71.0%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+7
70.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 7 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
70.8%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+1
70.7%
Luke Rubenzer run for 1 yd to the Nwest 13Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+7
70.8%
Luke Rubenzer run for 7 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
70.5%
Daniel Lasco run for 2 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
70.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Kenny LawlerSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
70.6%
Luke Rubenzer run for 3 yds to the Nwest 1Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 1 yd for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:4670% → 69%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
69.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 12 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
69.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 7 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
69.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+16
69.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 16 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
69.8%
Trevor Siemian run for 5 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+5
69.8%
Solomon Vault run for 5 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
69.7%
Trevor Siemian run for 4 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+4
69.9%
Warren Long run for 4 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+1
69.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 1 yd to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
68.9%
Warren Long run for no gain to the Cal 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:2734% → 43%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-7
66.4%
Jared Goff sacked by Chi Chi Ariguzo for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 16Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 17
OWN 16
+16
66.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 16 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+1
65.4%
Luke Rubenzer run for 1 yd to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
65.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
65.0%
Luke Rubenzer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+40
65.0%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 40 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
62.9%
Jared Goff pass complete to Tre Watson for 1 yd to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+8
62.6%
Luke Rubenzer run for 8 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+9
62.6%
Luke Rubenzer pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 9 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
62.0%
Luke Rubenzer run for 4 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
57.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 7 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 1:2359% → 57%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
58.9%
Miles Shuler run for no gain to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-17
58.7%
Trevor Siemian sacked by TEAM for a loss of 17 yards to the Nwest 5 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Trevor Siemian) to the Nwest 5Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 27
OWN 5
0
57.7%
Treyvon Green run for no gain to the Nwest 5Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 27
OWN 5
+9
57.0%
Chris Gradone punt for 33 yds , Chris Harper returns for 9 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0545% → 40%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
55.4%
Vic Enwere run for 4 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+7
55.0%
Vic Enwere run for 7 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
54.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 12 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
54.1%
Jared Goff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
53.9%
Luke Rubenzer run for 2 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
52.9%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Nwest 2Similar
Q2 11:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
60.2%
James Langford 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4054% → 52%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
53.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Solomon Vault for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
52.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
52.3%
Trevor Siemian pass intercepted Griffin Piatt return for no gain to the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:5841% → 42%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
59.1%
Daniel Lasco run for 9 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
58.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
58.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Daniel LascoSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
58.1%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Matt RockettSimilar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
57.6%
Luke Rubenzer pass intercepted Ibraheim Campbell return for no gain to the Nwest 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 2:4651% → 55%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
51.0%
Treyvon Green run for 9 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+3
50.9%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
50.7%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
50.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 9 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+6
50.8%
Treyvon Green run for 6 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
50.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 5 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
50.7%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+54
55.4%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 54 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
54.3%
Jared Goff pass complete to Trevor Davis for 76 yds for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:0446% → 42%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
45.8%
Treyvon Green run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+6
44.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 6 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
45.4%
Trevor Siemian run for 7 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
45.6%
Treyvon Green run for 2 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
45.0%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+6
44.2%
Trevor Siemian run for 6 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+8
42.0%
Chris Gradone punt for 40 yds , Trevor Davis returns for 8 yds to the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2157% → 66%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
42.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+2
36.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
33.5%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
34.0%
Cole Leininger punt for 42 yds, downed at the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0239% → 39%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
38.7%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
37.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+6
36.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 6 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
39.2%
Chris Gradone punt for 32 yds, downed at the Cal 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
31.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0934% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.0%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
32.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Treyvon Green for 4 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
33.2%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
32.3%
Chris Gradone punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:2571% → 91%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
28.8%
Chris Harper run for 4 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
28.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
27.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+4
26.4%
Daniel Lasco run for 4 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
25.5%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+15
27.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 15 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
23.9%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
23.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris HarperSimilar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+10
24.0%
Jared Goff run for 10 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
22.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the Nwest 1Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Langford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:5712% → 11%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
11.7%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
11.6%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
11.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
11.4%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
10.9%
Chris Gradone punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Chris Harper at the Cal 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2891% → 93%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
9.0%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+10
8.8%
Luke Rubenzer pass complete to Trevor Davis for 10 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+2
8.4%
Luke Rubenzer run for 2 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
7.5%
Cole Leininger punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:419% → 22%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
9.0%
Treyvon Green run for 4 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+12
8.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Pierre Youngblood-Ary for 12 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
9.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 22 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
9.6%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Treyvon GreenSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
9.5%
Solomon Vault run for 9 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
9.2%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
9.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
8.6%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
8.7%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Cal 14Similar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+3
8.2%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
8.3%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
22.2%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
13.4%
Jared Goff pass intercepted Collin Ellis return for 7 yds to the Cal 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20TD
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
35.6%
Jayme Taylor pass complete to Trevor Siemian for 17 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:5169% → 71%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
30.8%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+16
30.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Maurice Harris for 16 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
29.4%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
29.3%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+10
27.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Bryce Treggs for 10 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
26.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Chris HarperSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+17
26.4%
Jared Goff pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 17 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
25.4%
Tre Watson run for no gain to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
25.8%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 1 yd to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 9
OPP 34
-6
25.4%
Jared Goff sacked by Dean Lowry for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 15
OPP 40
-5
28.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Delay of Game (Jared Goff) to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 20
OPP 45
0
28.7%
Cole Leininger punt for 28 yds, downed at the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:4125% → 20%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
25.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 13 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
25.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 5 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
25.0%
Treyvon Green run for 1 yd to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+16
22.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 16 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
25.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 5 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
26.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+2
22.4%
Treyvon Green run for 2 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
19.6%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1783% → 82%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
16.7%
Jared Goff pass complete to Chris Harper for 17 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
15.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
15.6%
Jared Goff pass complete to Darius Powe for 5 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
15.3%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Trevor DavisSimilar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
17.6%
Luke Rubenzer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:0317% → 26%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
17.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Austin Carr for 3 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+23
17.4%
Trevor Siemian run for 8 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Barton) to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
19.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
19.2%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+12
18.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 12 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
21.4%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
20.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (9 Yards) to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
20.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+5
19.1%
Solomon Vault run for 5 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
19.0%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
18.8%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-1
17.1%
Treyvon Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 8Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+24
26.1%
Jack Mitchell 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5884% → 83%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.6%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Darius PoweSimilar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
15.7%
Jared Goff pass incomplete to Bryce TreggsSimilar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.5%
Jared Goff pass complete to Daniel Lasco for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+23
16.8%
Cole Leininger punt for 38 yds, downed at the NORTHWSTRN 33 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26INT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3226% → 17%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
26.4%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
25.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 8 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
28.3%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
28.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 2 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+8
27.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 8 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
29.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 4 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-11
28.4%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Jalen Jefferson for a loss of 11 yards to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 17
OPP 38
0
17.4%
Trevor Siemian pass intercepted Jalen Jefferson return for no gain to the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27END OF GAME
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:3390% → 95%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
9.9%
Daniel Lasco run for no gain to the Cal 15Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+10
6.2%
Jared Goff pass complete to Kenny Lawler for 10 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.9%
Daniel Lasco run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
5.7%
Luke Rubenzer run for 8 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
5.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 32
-5
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:06
Jayme Taylor pass complete to Trevor Siemian for 17 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+22.2
TD · Q3 2:31
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+13.9
TD · Q3 9:05
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Langford KICK)
-13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com