Try the model
NEB

Nebraska 24 at Wisconsin 59

WIS
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Camp Randall Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.1WIS 57.7%Rafael Gaglianone 26 Yd Field GoalAWAY 10 - HOME 3 · Q1 6:10
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:10 · Rafael Gaglianone 26 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Home team on offense−1.3Score differential−0.4Pregame prior+9.2Garbage-time factor−0.8Blowout margin−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:21: Melvin Gordon 62 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +6.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:21: Corey Clement 17 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +12.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:31: Sam Arneson 5 Yd pass from Joel Stave (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +7.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:06: Melvin Gordon 1 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +9.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:46: Melvin Gordon 6 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +8.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:24NEB 4th & 8 at WIS 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:20WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:10WIS 4th & 8 at NEB 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:29NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:17NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:09NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:57NEB 4th & 11 at NEB 25, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06NEB 4th & 26 at NEB 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:07WIS 4th & 12 at WIS 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−2.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:27NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:09NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:16NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:58WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 23, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:09NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 29, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:21NEB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:12NEB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:21WIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:21WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:31WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:06WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:46WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:00WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:00WIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:34WIS Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:54NEB Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3961% → 61%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
60.8%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 23Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+6
60.8%
Kenzel Doe run for 6 yds to the Wisc 29 Kenzel Doe fumbled, forced by Zaire Anderson, recovered by Neb Zaire AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2FG
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3739% → 39%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
60.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 8 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+4
60.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the Wisc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
60.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
60.6%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the Wisc 15Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
60.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
60.6%
Drew Brown 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5261% → 60%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
60.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
60.3%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
60.2%
Bart Houston punt for 18 yds, downed at the Wisc 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:5940% → 42%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
60.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (Alex Lewis) to the Wisc 48Similar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+10
60.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 10 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+13
60.0%
Ameer Abdullah run for 13 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
59.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Wisc 20Similar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+4
59.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for 4 yds to the Wisc 16Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+4
59.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 4 yds to the Wisc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
58.0%
Kenny Bell 12 Yd pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Drew Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5FG
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:0559% → 58%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+42
58.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 42 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
58.9%
Tanner McEvoy run for 19 yds to the Neb 9 Tanner McEvoy fumbled, forced by Corey Cooper, recovered by Wisc Melvin Gordon for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
58.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for no gain to the Neb 9Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
58.5%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Neb 9Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
57.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 1 yd to the Neb 8Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
57.7%
Rafael Gaglianone 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2643% → 43%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
57.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-1
56.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 29Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
56.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
56.8%
Sam Foltz punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:1857% → 56%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
56.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the Wisc 24Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+7
56.2%
Tanner McEvoy run for 7 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 2
OWN 31
-1
56.0%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 30 Melvin Gordon fumbled, forced by Trevor Roach, recovered by Neb Zaire AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8TD
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:4746% → 54%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
54.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
53.9%
Ameer Abdullah run for 7 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
53.6%
Ameer Abdullah run for 4 yds to the Wisc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
53.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
52.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for no gain to the Wisc 10Similar
Q1 0:09
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+3
52.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the Wisc 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
52.2%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the Wisc 5Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
45.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. 5 Yd Run (Drew Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:3748% → 53%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
47.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
47.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+11
46.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jordan Fredrick for 11 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
53.2%
Melvin Gordon 62 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5148% → 47%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
51.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
51.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
52.7%
Sam Foltz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:2852% → 52%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
52.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 8 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
52.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
52.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Kenzel Doe for 3 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+16
52.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 16 yds to the Neb 41 Melvin Gordon fumbled, forced by Nate Gerry, recovered by Neb Trevor RoachSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:3252% → 54%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
48.5%
Ameer Abdullah run for 7 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
48.2%
Imani Cross run for 4 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
47.6%
Imani Cross run for 3 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
46.1%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Wisc 44 Terrell Newby fumbled, forced by Warren Herring, recovered by Wisc Joe SchobertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13TD
2 plays · 56 yds · 0:2951% → 63%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+39
50.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 39 yds to the Neb 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
63.1%
Corey Clement 17 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0443% → 41%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
57.0%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (Jake Cotton) to the Neb 17Similar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+8
57.2%
Ameer Abdullah run for 8 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
56.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
57.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete, broken up by Joe SchobertSimilar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
58.6%
Sam Foltz punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2860% → 71%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
60.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 44 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
63.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 9 yds to the Neb 22Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+13
63.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Kenzel Doe for 13 yds to the Neb 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.4%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Derek WattSimilar
Q2 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
63.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Neb 5Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
71.1%
Sam Arneson 5 Yd pass from Joel Stave (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT
16 plays · 1 yds · 3:1329% → 26%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
71.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 5 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
70.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-8
71.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Marcus Trotter for a loss of 8 yards to the Neb 25Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+14
73.2%
Sam Foltz run for 14 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
70.4%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Zach Hannon) to the Neb 24Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
71.6%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete to Pierson-El, De'Mornay, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding 10 yards to the NEBRASKA34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
71.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Peniel Jean for a loss of 6 yards to the Neb 28Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+15
72.4%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete to Bell, Kenny, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Shelton, Sojourn) 15 yards to the NEBRASKA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
70.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-11
70.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Joe Schobert and Arthur Goldberg for a loss of 11 yards to the Neb 32Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 21
OWN 32
0
73.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 21
OWN 32
-5
73.6%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (Joshua Kalu) to the Neb 27Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 26
OWN 27
0
73.8%
Sam Foltz punt for 34 yds, downed at the Wisc 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
72.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1430% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
70.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (Cethan Carter) to the Neb 20Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
70.5%
Ameer Abdullah run for no gain to the Neb 20Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
71.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 22Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+26
72.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 26 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
68.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Peniel Jean return for 14 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:3372% → 71%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
71.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 9 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 1
OWN 26
-10
73.1%
Gordon, Melvin rush for 3 yards to the WISCONSIN29, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Costigan, Kyle) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+4
71.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-5
71.3%
Joel Stave sacked by Maliek Collins for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 15Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 12
OWN 15
+14
70.6%
Drew Meyer punt for 37 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 14 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
68.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 42 Ameer Abdullah fumbled, forced by Vince Biegel, recovered by Wisc Peniel JeanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:4776% → 87%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
76.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 13 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
77.1%
Tanner McEvoy run for 6 yds to the Neb 39Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-5
77.3%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Melvin Gordon) to the Neb 44Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+43
77.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 43 yds to the Neb 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.9%
Melvin Gordon 1 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3116% → 14%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.4%
Ameer Abdullah run for 9 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
82.9%
Ameer Abdullah run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 32Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-3
84.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 29Similar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
85.7%
Sam Foltz punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:2988% → 96%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+68
87.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 68 yds to the Neb 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.0%
Melvin Gordon 6 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:315% → 4%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
95.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (Alex Lewis) to the Neb 19Similar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+5
95.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 5 yds to the Neb 24Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+14
95.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 14 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for no gain to the Neb 38Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
95.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
96.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+20
96.2%
Sam Foltz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the WISCONSIN 27 NEBRASKA Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Faulkenberry) to the Wisc 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:0196% → 100%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
95.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+31
96.8%
Kenzel Doe run for 31 yds to the Neb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
97.1%
Tanner McEvoy run for 8 yds to the Neb 12Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+6
97.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Neb 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
97.8%
Gordon, Melvin rush for 6 yards to the NEBRASKA0, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Costigan, Kyle) 10 yards to the NEBRASKA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+5
97.8%
Tanner McEvoy run for 5 yds to the Neb 11Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
99.7%
Tanner McEvoy 11 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:340% → 0%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 6 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-4
99.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 26 Tommy Armstrong Jr. fumbled, recovered by Wisc Marcus TrotterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27TD
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:06100% → 100%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Sam ArnesonSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.7%
Melvin Gordon 26 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for 4 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the Neb 30Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 2 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Sam Foltz punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.8%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
99.8%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
99.8%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
99.8%
Drew Meyer punt for 24 yds, downed at the Wisc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 30FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
99.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 2 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-4
99.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 49 Tommy Armstrong Jr. fumbled, recovered by Neb Terrell NewbySimilar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 12
OPP 49
-6
99.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Austin Hudson for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 49 Tommy Armstrong Jr. fumbled, forced by Austin Hudson, recovered by Wisc Vince Biegel , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 31TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 8 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
99.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 12 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
99.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 9 yds to the Neb 19Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
99.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Neb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
99.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 6 yds to the Neb 8Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Dare Ogunbowale 8 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Neb 21Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Sam Foltz punt for 70 yds, downed at the Wisc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 33FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
100.0%
Bart Houston run for 4 yds to the Wisc 2 Bart Houston fumbled, recovered by Neb Nate Gerry , return for 3 yds to the Wisc 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 34TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 35END OF GAME
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:34100% → 100%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.9%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
100.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 35Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:21
Corey Clement 17 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)
+12.5
TD · Q3 8:06
Melvin Gordon 1 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)
+9.6
TD · Q3 5:46
Melvin Gordon 6 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)
+8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com