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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:18 · Sam Foltz punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:10: Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 71 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +3.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:39: Ameer Abdullah run for 53 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +3.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:28: Ameer Abdullah run for 48 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +4.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:08: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Sam Cotton for 8 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +6.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:04: Desmon Peoples run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +3.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 1 of 4RUTG made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 10:45RUTG 4th & 1 at NEB 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.3%71% to convertField goal17.1%−0.254% to makePunt17.0%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:37NEB 4th & 3 at RUTG 25, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snapGo for it83.2%52% to convertField goalTheir call82.9%−0.266% to makePunt81.4%−1.8average punt
- Q2 10:54RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snapGo for it17.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.7%average punt
- Q2 8:39RUTG 4th & 18 at RUTG 14, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snapGo for it11.8%−1.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.3%average punt
- Q2 7:19RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 46, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snapGo for it12.9%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%average punt
- Q2 4:10NEB 4th & 23 at NEB 5, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snapGo for it84.1%−2.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.9%average punt
- Q2 2:46RUTG 4th & 8 at NEB 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.6% before the snapGo for it12.4%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call12.4%49% to makePunt11.8%−0.6average punt
- Q2 1:00NEB 4th & 8 at RUTG 38, up 14Close callPunted · 88.6% before the snapGo for it88.5%−<0.135% to convertField goal88.5%38% to makePuntTheir call88.0%−0.5average punt
- Q3 9:10RUTG 4th & 9 at NEB 24, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.331% to convertField goalTheir call3.8%68% to makePunt1.5%−2.3average punt
- Q3 2:34RUTG 4th & 17 at RUTG 43, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q4 12:18NEB 4th & 1 at RUTG 40, up 18Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.4%70% to convertField goal96.1%−1.234% to makePuntTheir call96.2%−1.1average punt
- Q4 10:49RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 11, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 6:48NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.2%97% to makeGo for two83.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:10RUTG Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.2%97% to makeGo for two20.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:39NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.9%97% to makeGo for two81.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:28NEB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.6%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:08NEB Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:35NEB Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:04RUTG Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.1%97% to makeGo for two3.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:07NEB Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:11RUTG Touchdown, down 19 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.5%−0.197% to makeGo for two1.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1DOWNS10 plays · 51 yds · 4:1515% → 17%
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+8
84.7%
Gary Nova pass complete to Michael Burton for 8 yds to the Rutgr 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
84.5%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 18 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+9
83.6%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 9 yds to the Neb 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2TD11 plays · 69 yds · 3:5784% → 85%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
83.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 20 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
83.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 4 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
83.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 9 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+11
83.0%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete to Moore, Alonzo, PENALTY RUTGERS personal foul (Kirksey, Kenneth) 11 yards to the RUTGERS11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3INT9 plays · 34 yds · 3:3416% → 17%
NEBDrive 4MISSED FG6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3785% → 84%
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
84.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 11 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5TD3 plays · 75 yds · 1:2717% → 20%
NEBDrive 6TD5 plays · 67 yds · 1:2180% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4517% → 17%
NEBDrive 8TD2 plays · 64 yds · 0:2684% → 89%
RUTGDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:4913% → 12%
NEBDrive 10INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2189% → 89%
Q2 8:18
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+2
88.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Anthony Cioffi return for 2 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5913% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 3:0988% → 88%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-10
88.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Neb 8 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Neb Terrell NewbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13MISSED FG4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2413% → 12%
Q2 2:46
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+50
88.4%
Kyle Federico 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Randy Gregory Josh Mitchell return for 2 yds to the Neb 37 Josh Mitchell fumbled, recovered by Neb Kevin WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 1:4689% → 89%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
89.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the Neb 40 Tommy Armstrong Jr. fumbled, recovered by Neb Tommy Armstrong Jr.Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+16
89.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 16 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15END OF HALF5 plays · 11 yds · 1:0012% → 11%
Q2 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+12
88.7%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andrew Turzilli for 12 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16TD7 plays · 72 yds · 2:4789% → 97%
Q3 13:15
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+11
90.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 11 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+10
90.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 10 yds to the Rutgr 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Sam Cotton for 8 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17FG8 plays · 51 yds · 2:584% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18TD7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0595% → 99%
Q3 7:45
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+14
95.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 14 yds to the Rutgr 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
95.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 5 yds to the Rutgr 4Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 4:012% → 2%
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+21
98.2%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Robert Martin for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
98.5%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 4 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-12
98.6%
Chris Laviano sacked by Randy Gregory for a loss of 12 yards to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 17
OWN 43
+20
98.5%
Tim Gleeson punt for 57 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 20 yds to the Neb 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20FUMBLE2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
RUTGDrive 21TD4 plays · 21 yds · 1:261% → 5%
Q3 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
98.8%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 6 yds to the Neb 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:4297% → 97%
Q4 12:18
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
97.4%
Sam Foltz punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the Rutgr 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:293% → 3%
Q4 10:49
4TH & 6
OWN 11
+2
97.1%
Tim Gleeson punt for 33 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 2 yds to the Rutgr 42 NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Block (Taariq Allen) to the Neb 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24TD7 plays · 52 yds · 2:4298% → 100%
Q4 10:15
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+22
97.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 22 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-10
97.8%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Cotton) to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+13
97.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 13 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+5
97.9%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Offside (NA) to the Rutgr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25TD7 plays · 53 yds · 2:560% → 2%
Q4 7:45
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+18
99.6%
Chris Laviano pass complete to Carlton Agudosi for 18 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26END OF GAME8 plays · 29 yds · 5:1198% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:08
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Sam Cotton for 8 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+6.6
TD · Q2 10:28
Ameer Abdullah run for 48 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+4.9
TD · Q3 0:04
Desmon Peoples run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)
-3.9