Try the model
NEB

Nebraska 38 at Northwestern 17

NU
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Ryan Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:14 · Chris Gradone punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Home team on offense+2.5Pregame prior−13.1Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:52: Justin Jackson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +11.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:14: De'Mornay Pierson-El pass complete to Tommy Armstrong Jr. for 16 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +15.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:27: Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +22.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:16: Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +15.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:36: Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +7.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:39NEB 4th & 13 at NU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:07NEB 4th & 6 at NU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:14NU 4th & 7 at NU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:02NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:04NU 4th & 9 at NU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:36NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:33NU 4th & 10 at NU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:59NEB 4th & 9 at NU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03NU 4th & 9 at NEB 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−6.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:57NU 4th & 2 at NU 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:01NEB 4th & 8 at NU 35, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%−0.3
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:19NU 4th & 1 at NU 15, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%−2.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:21NU 4th & 21 at NU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−4.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:03NU 4th & 11 at NU 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:01NU 4th & 25 at NU 1, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.9
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:28NEB 4th & 7 at NU 16, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:11NU 4th & 10 at NU 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:58NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:14NEB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:52NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:14NEB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:27NEB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:16NEB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:36NEB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:0967% → 65%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
33.5%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+11
33.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 11 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
33.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 3 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+10
33.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 10 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
33.9%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Formation (NA) to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
34.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+6
34.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 6 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-4
34.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
34.9%
Sam Foltz punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2TD
16 plays · 89 yds · 5:3435% → 42%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
34.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Paul Jorgensen) to the Nwest 6Similar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+4
35.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 4 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+2
35.1%
Treyvon Green run for 2 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+13
35.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 13 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 9 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
36.1%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
36.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Stephen BuckleySimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
36.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+9
36.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 9 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+27
36.8%
Justin Jackson run for 27 yds to the Neb 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
37.2%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+10
37.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Solomon Vault for 10 yds to the Neb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
37.5%
Tony Jones run for 8 yds to the Neb 6Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+3
37.6%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Neb 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
37.9%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Neb 2Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:3060% → 58%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
40.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+29
40.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 29 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
40.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for 5 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+6
40.0%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
40.2%
Ameer Abdullah run for 4 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
40.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Ameer AbdullahSimilar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
41.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
42.1%
Drew Brown 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4443% → 43%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
43.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
43.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 2 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-14
43.0%
Siemian, Trevor pass complete to Vitale, Dan for 7 yards to the NORTHWSTRN35, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN pass interference (Prater, Kyle) 14 yards to the NORTHWSTRN14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 18
OWN 14
+11
42.9%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
43.0%
Chris Gradone punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0457% → 55%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
42.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 45Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+4
43.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
43.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
44.7%
Sam Foltz punt for 35 yds, downed at the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6INT
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:0845% → 48%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
45.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 8 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+1
45.6%
Solomon Vault run for 1 yd to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
45.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
46.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 15 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
47.6%
Trevor Siemian run for 2 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+15
47.9%
Siemian, Trevor pass incomplete, PENALTY NEBRASKA personal foul (Gerry, Nate) 15 yards to the NEBRASKA41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
48.4%
Trevor Siemian pass intercepted, touchback. Nate Gerry return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:3154% → 62%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
46.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 23 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
45.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 13 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
44.9%
Ameer Abdullah run for no gain to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
45.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Trey Foster for 6 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+20
46.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 5 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
44.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 17 yds to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5742% → 42%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
41.9%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 20Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
42.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
42.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+1
41.9%
Chris Gradone punt for 38 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 1 yd to the Neb 21 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Illegal Formation (NA) to the Neb 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2061% → 58%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
39.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
39.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Terrell NewbySimilar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
40.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
42.1%
Sam Foltz punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5444% → 43%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
43.6%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-7
43.8%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Trevor Roach for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 11Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+4
43.0%
Trevor Siemian run for 4 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+10
42.7%
Chris Gradone punt for 38 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 10 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2861% → 58%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
38.6%
Abdullah, Ameer rush for 8 yards to the NORTHWSTRN35, PENALTY NEBRASKA holding (Cotton, Jake) 10 yards to the NEBRASKA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+8
40.2%
Ameer Abdullah run for 8 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+3
39.6%
Ameer Abdullah run for 3 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
39.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
41.6%
Sam Foltz punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 2:5545% → 61%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
45.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 8 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+11
45.8%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
45.9%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Jayme TaylorSimilar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
45.9%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
47.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Stephen Buckley for 19 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
48.8%
Justin Jackson run for 12 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
49.9%
Solomon Vault run for 6 yds to the Neb 21Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-2
50.0%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 23Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+18
49.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 13 yds to the Neb 10 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Randy Gregory) to the Neb 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
61.3%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:2541% → 62%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+46
59.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 46 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
53.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 11 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
38.0%
De'Mornay Pierson-El pass complete to Tommy Armstrong Jr. for 16 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 54 yds · 1:0247% → 52%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
47.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+15
47.1%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (NA) to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
49.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+15
49.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 15 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
50.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Treyvon Green for 23 yds to the Neb 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
51.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
51.6%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+1
50.1%
Trevor Siemian run for 1 yd to the Neb 12Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
51.7%
Jack Mitchell 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5350% → 50%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
51.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 4 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
51.6%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q3 13:57
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
50.2%
Chris Gradone punt for 35 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:4451% → 49%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
49.2%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the Neb 33Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+2
49.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 35Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+28
50.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 28 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
47.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Lane HoveySimilar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
47.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for no gain to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+2
48.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
50.6%
Sam Foltz punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3452% → 52%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
52.2%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+4
52.4%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 1
OWN 15
0
52.2%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
51.9%
Chris Gradone punt for 40 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:4451% → 71%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
49.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 41Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+4
51.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 4 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+11
51.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 11 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
49.0%
Ameer Abdullah run for 13 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
47.9%
Imani Cross run for 2 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+6
47.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 6 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+7
49.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
48.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-3
48.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+18
51.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 18 yds to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.2%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:5037% → 33%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
36.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
35.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 6 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+7
34.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 7 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
36.5%
Justin Jackson run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
50
+2
39.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 2 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
40.0%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-8
38.4%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Jack Gangwish for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 44 Trevor Siemian fumbled, recovered by Nwest Paul Jorgensen , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 16
OWN 44
-5
33.1%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Delay of Game (NA) to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 21
OWN 39
0
33.2%
Chris Gradone punt for 38 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:5868% → 86%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
32.5%
Ameer Abdullah run for 8 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 2
OWN 31
-5
30.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 5 yds to the Neb 36 NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) to the Neb 26Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
32.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 4 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+18
32.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 18 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
29.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the Neb 49Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+50
28.9%
Ameer Abdullah run for 50 yds to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0517% → 14%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
17.2%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Kevin Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
15.0%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+29
14.3%
Chris Gradone punt for 44 yds, downed at the NORTHWSTRN 32 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Marcus McShepard) to the Neb 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:1785% → 98%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
14.6%
Ameer Abdullah run for 11 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
13.5%
Ameer Abdullah run for 4 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+10
11.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for 10 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
11.5%
Imani Cross run for 5 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+4
11.2%
Imani Cross run for 4 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
10.7%
Imani Cross run for 2 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
10.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for no gain to the Nwest 17Similar
Q4 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.5%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:184% → 3%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
4.0%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Stephen BuckleySimilar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-14
3.8%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Kevin Williams for a loss of 14 yards to the Nwest 2Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 24
OWN 2
-1
3.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Matt Frazier) to the Nwest 1Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 25
OWN 1
0
3.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 25
OWN 1
+15
3.0%
Chris Gradone punt for 33 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 15 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2198% → 99%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
1.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 2 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
1.6%
Imani Cross run for 1 yd to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
1.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
0.7%
Drew Brown 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 14 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.2%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
1.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+8
1.1%
Siemian, Trevor pass incomplete to Jones, Tony, PENALTY NEBRASKA pass interference (Davie, Daniel) 8 yards to the NORTHWSTRN39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
1.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
1.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
1.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Pierre Youngblood-ArySimilar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
1.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
0.4%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+2
0.4%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+9
0.3%
Terrell Newby run for 9 yds to the Nwest 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:27
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
-22
TD · Q2 1:14
De'Mornay Pierson-El pass complete to Tommy Armstrong Jr. for 16 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q4 13:16
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com