2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreFAU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:57 · Sam Foltz punt for 31 yds, downed at the FlAtl 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:56: Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 20 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +1.8 pts (now 13%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:22: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 36 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +1.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:29: Ameer Abdullah run for 47 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +4.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:30: Imani Cross run for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +2.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:18: Terrell Newby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +1.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FAU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q2 14:48FAU 4th & 12 at FAU 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snapGo for it11.7%−0.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.1%average punt
- Q2 12:18NEB 4th & 10 at FAU 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snapGo for it87.2%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call87.5%62% to makePunt86.0%−1.5average punt
- Q2 8:07FAU 4th & 10 at NEB 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snapGo for it11.6%−0.329% to convertField goalTheir call11.9%60% to makePunt10.0%−1.9average punt
- Q2 4:49FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 32, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.7%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q2 1:59FAU 4th & 17 at FAU 18, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q2 0:57NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 44, up 24Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:38FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q3 13:59FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 23, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q3 7:51FAU 4th & 16 at FAU 34, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 6:18FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 25, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 3:09NEB 4th & 9 at FAU 28, up 38Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%60% to makePunt99.4%−0.3average punt
- Q3 2:11FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 28, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 6:46FAU 4th & 2 at NEB 14, down 48Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%56% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.184% to makePunt-0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 4:26NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 40, up 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 2:22FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 29, down 48Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:19NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.4%97% to makeGo for two89.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:56FAU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.6%97% to makeGo for two12.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:22NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.8%97% to makeGo for two87.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:29NEB Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.5%97% to makeGo for two91.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:30NEB Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:18NEB Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:41NEB Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:20NEB Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1TD15 plays · 86 yds · 5:3191% → 91%
Q1 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-7
90.6%
Ameer Abdullah run for 3 yds to the Neb 30 NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Neb 20Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+29
90.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 29 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+10
89.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Sam Cotton for 10 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1510% → 13%
Q1 8:32
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
90.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 8 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
90.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Tony Moore for 15 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
89.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 6 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
89.4%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Jaquez Johnson for no gain to the Neb 42Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+10
89.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 10 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
87.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 20 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1888% → 89%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
87.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 7 yds to the Neb 32 NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Block (Jamal Turner) to the Neb 22Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+17
88.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for 27 yds to the NEBRASKA 40 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kenny Bell) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
50
+3
87.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Taariq Allen for 3 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+12
87.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 12 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
87.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 9 yds to the FlAtl 26 NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mark Pelini) to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+36
89.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 36 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:1912% → 11%
Q2 14:48
4TH & 12
OWN 42
+2
88.7%
Dalton Schomp punt for 36 yds , Kenny Bell returns for 2 yds to the Neb 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5FG9 plays · 49 yds · 2:2289% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6MISSED FG15 plays · 47 yds · 4:0311% → 10%
NEBDrive 7TD4 plays · 72 yds · 1:3689% → 94%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
89.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 10 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8FUMBLE6 plays · 7 yds · 1:167% → 6%
NEBDrive 9TD8 plays · 66 yds · 2:1094% → 97%
FAUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · -7 yds · 0:313% → 2%
NEBDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5398% → 98%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
97.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 8 yds to the Neb 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:172% → 2%
Q2 0:38
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Dalton Schomp punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kenny Bell at the Neb 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13END OF HALF6 plays · 40 yds · 0:3598% → 98%
FAUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:484% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15TD10 plays · 78 yds · 3:3597% → 100%
FAUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 2:091% → 0%
NEBDrive 17TD3 plays · 80 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
FAUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:170% → 0%
Q3 6:18
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+44
99.7%
Dalton Schomp punt for 44 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19FG10 plays · 42 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q3 2:11
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+15
99.9%
Dalton Schomp punt for 58 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 15 yds to the Neb 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21TD8 plays · 71 yds · 3:31100% → 100%
Q3 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+9
99.8%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Jamal Turner for 9 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22DOWNS15 plays · 60 yds · 6:040% → 0%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
100.0%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Derek Moise for 10 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+8
100.0%
Jay Warren run for 8 yds to the Neb 34 Jay Warren fumbled, recovered by FlAtlSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+12
99.9%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Michael Harrop for 12 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q4 4:26
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Sam Foltz punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Lucky Whitehead at the FlAtl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:380% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25END OF HALF7 plays · 42 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
100.0%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 6 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:29
Ameer Abdullah run for 47 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q2 2:30
Imani Cross run for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q3 10:18
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+1.9