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MINN

Minnesota 24 at Wisconsin 34

WIS
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:08 · Drew Meyer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the WISCONSIN 23 WISCONSIN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Kenzel Doe) to the Minn 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+14.7Home team on offense−3.7Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:39: Joel Stave pass complete to Melvin Gordon for 4 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +10.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:20: Corey Clement run for 28 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +16.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:57: Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +10.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:32: Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +24.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 4:41: Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 17 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +12.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MINN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:14MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:48WIS 4th & 5 at MINN 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:14MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:05WIS 4th & 16 at WIS 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:48MINN 4th & 16 at WIS 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:09WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:31MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:08WIS 4th & 22 at WIS 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−4.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:57MINN 4th & 15 at MINN 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−3.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:15MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 20, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:11WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:31MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:27MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:17WIS 4th & 4 at MINN 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:58MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:31MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:56MINN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:39WIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:20WIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:57WIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:32MINN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:41WIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2919% → 20%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
80.6%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+1
80.4%
Donovahn Jones run for 1 yd to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
80.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+2
80.3%
Peter Mortell punt for 55 yds , Kenzel Doe returns for 2 yds to the Wisc 13 Kenzel Doe fumbled, forced by Jack Lynn, recovered by Minn Eric MurraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:1720% → 21%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
79.9%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
79.2%
Mitch Leidner 10 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 5:0779% → 78%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
79.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
79.0%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy Fumagalli, broken up by Eric MurraySimilar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+14
78.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Sam Arneson for 14 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
78.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 2
50
+3
78.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
78.4%
Tanner McEvoy run for 8 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
78.1%
Melvin Gordon run for no gain to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+10
77.7%
Stave, Joel pass sacked for loss of 2 yards to the MINNESOTA41 (Thompson, Cedric), PENALTY MINNESOTA holding (Boddy-Calhoun, Briean) 10 yards to the MINNESOTA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
77.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 23 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
77.7%
Melvin Gordon run for no gain to the Minn 6Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
77.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the Minn 5Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
77.0%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Sam ArnesonSimilar
Q1 6:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+24
77.6%
Rafael Gaglianone 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:0323% → 24%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.1%
David Cobb run for 6 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
76.6%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
76.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 9 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
76.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
76.0%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
75.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Isaac Fruechte, broken up by Joe SchobertSimilar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
76.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0276% → 74%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
75.9%
Gordon, Melvin rush for 8 yards to the WISCONSIN19, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Traylor, Austin) 5 yards to the WISCONSIN6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 15
OWN 6
-2
75.5%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 4Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 17
OWN 4
+1
75.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the Wisc 5Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 16
OWN 5
0
74.5%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 16
OWN 5
+1
74.2%
Drew Meyer punt for 36 yds , Craig James returns for 1 yd to the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
70.6%
David Cobb run for 40 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2670% → 69%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
70.3%
Tanner McEvoy run for 3 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+4
69.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-1
68.9%
Tanner McEvoy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 21Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 21
-3
68.9%
Drew Meyer punt for 42 yds , Craig James returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 18 WISCONSIN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Leo Musso) to the Minn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:0731% → 40%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
69.0%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+9
68.6%
David Cobb run for 9 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
68.3%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
67.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn JonesSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+19
68.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 19 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
65.8%
Donnell Kirkwood run for 3 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
65.3%
Donnell Kirkwood run for 2 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-12
64.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Wisc 7 MINNESOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (Tommy Olson) to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+1
64.8%
Donnell Kirkwood run for 1 yd to the Wisc 21Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 16
OPP 21
+37
60.4%
Ryan Santoso 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2561% → 59%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
60.9%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex Erickson, broken up by Damarius TravisSimilar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
60.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+1
60.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+7
58.9%
Bart Houston punt for 31 yds , Craig James returns for 7 yds to the Minn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0844% → 44%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
56.0%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 43Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-2
55.5%
Isaac Fruechte run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
55.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn Jones, broken up by Devin GauldenSimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
56.0%
Peter Mortell punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:4256% → 66%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
55.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
54.8%
Tanner McEvoy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+70
53.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 70 yds to the Minn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
55.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Minn 4Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.5%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy Fumagalli, broken up by Briean Boddy-CalhounSimilar
Q2 4:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Melvin Gordon for 4 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12FUMBLE
13 plays · 44 yds · 4:1138% → 48%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.9%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
60.5%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
59.5%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Fruechte, Isaac (Hillary, Darius), PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Hillary, Darius) 9 yards to the MINNESOTA41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
58.0%
David Cobb run for 8 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
56.1%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
54.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
54.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn Jones, broken up by Sojourn SheltonSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+9
54.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 9 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
53.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+6
52.8%
David Cobb run for 6 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-1
52.4%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 31 David Cobb fumbled, recovered by Wisc Michael CaputoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 49 yds · 0:1059% → 70%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+35
59.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 35 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
62.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 14 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+38
70.1%
Rafael Gaglianone 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:4764% → 60%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.9%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
63.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 9 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
64.4%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Erickson, Alex, PENALTY MINNESOTA pass interference (Murray, Eric) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
66.0%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 47Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
63.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Melvin Gordon for no gain to the Wisc 47Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 12
OWN 47
-10
62.0%
Joel Stave sacked by Michael Amaefula for a loss of 10 yards to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 22
OWN 37
+25
59.6%
Drew Meyer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the WISCONSIN 23 WISCONSIN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Kenzel Doe) to the Minn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4542% → 39%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
58.4%
David Cobb run for 7 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
57.6%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
50
-11
56.8%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Vince Biegel for a loss of 11 yards to the Minn 39 MINNESOTA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Mitch Leidner) to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 21
OWN 39
+3
58.7%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 18
OWN 42
+3
59.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 45 MINNESOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (Connor Mayes) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
60.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:2160% → 77%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
59.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 10 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
60.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
62.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
61.7%
Kenzel Doe run for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 35Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+14
56.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Sam Arneson for 14 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+8
59.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 8 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
60.9%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Erickson, Alex, PENALTY MINNESOTA pass interference (Boddy-Calhoun, Briean) 15 yards to the MINNESOTA28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
76.9%
Corey Clement run for 28 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1529% → 26%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
71.4%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Minn 12Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+9
71.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 9 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 1
OWN 21
-1
71.4%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 20Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
73.6%
Peter Mortell punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:0473% → 71%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
72.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cameron Botticelli) to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+3
74.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+4
74.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
74.4%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
73.4%
Tanner McEvoy run for 3 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-5
73.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Sam Arneson) to the Wisc 42Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+6
70.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Corey Clement for 6 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 6
OWN 48
+5
71.1%
Drew Meyer punt for 44 yds , Craig James returns for 5 yds to the Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0829% → 27%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
71.5%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Minn 15Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+7
71.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+12
71.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 12 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
71.0%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
70.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
71.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Isaac FruechteSimilar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+17
73.4%
Peter Mortell punt for 49 yds , Kenzel Doe returns for 17 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:2175% → 90%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
74.8%
Alex Erickson run for no gain to the Wisc 31 Alex Erickson fumbled, recovered by Wisc Jordan FredrickSimilar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
74.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 8 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+24
75.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 24 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
77.7%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+31
78.5%
Corey Clement run for 31 yds to the Minn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0511% → 38%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
89.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 9 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
87.9%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
88.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 5 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
88.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Minn 44 Mitch Leidner fumbled, forced by Michael Caputo, recovered by Minn Mitch LeidnerSimilar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+53
88.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 53 yds to the Wisc 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
86.3%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Wisc 2Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2174% → 93%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
76.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 5 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
76.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+31
78.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 31 yds to the Minn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
81.2%
Corey Clement run for 9 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+17
93.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 17 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:567% → 6%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
92.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd to the Minn 15Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
92.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
93.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+1
94.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 45 yds , Kenzel Doe returns for 1 yd to the Wisc 37 Kenzel Doe fumbled, recovered by Wisc Kenzel DoeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 2:0094% → 97%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
93.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
95.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
95.6%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-10
95.9%
Clement, Corey rush for 23 yards to the MINNESOTA24, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Lewallen, Dallas) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+8
96.0%
Corey Clement run for 8 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+4
96.7%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
96.5%
Drew Meyer punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:143% → 3%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Isaac FruechteSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
96.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn JonesSimilar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
97.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
97.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:1397% → 97%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 22Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 12
OPP 22
-1
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:32
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
-24.2
TD · Q3 6:20
Corey Clement run for 28 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+16
TD · Q4 4:41
Joel Stave pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 17 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com