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NU

Northwestern 17 at Minnesota 24

MINN
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:58 · Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 14 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Home team on offense+14.7Pregame prior+0.5Garbage-time factor+4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score differential+3.3Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:26: Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +7.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 12:14: Ryan Santoso 25 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +10.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:32: Trevor Siemian run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +31.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:19: Jack Mitchell kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Myrick return for 100 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +42.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:35: David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 36 — MINN win probability +10.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:51NU 4th & 1 at NU 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 1 at MINN 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−1.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:26NU 4th & 4 at NU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:10MINN 4th & 30 at MINN 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:04NU 4th & 2 at MINN 2, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%−3.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−11.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00NU 4th & 1 at NU 33, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:51NU 4th & 17 at MINN 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:05MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:04NU 4th & 1 at NU 35, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:14MINN 4th & 3 at NU 8, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.1%−2.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−16.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:19NU 4th & 3 at NU 39, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:16MINN 4th & 13 at NU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:58NU 4th & 10 at NU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.8%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:58NU 4th & 3 at MINN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−2.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−5.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:46MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 3:18MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:17NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:26MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:32NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:19MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
57.7%
David Cobb run for 10 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
57.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Donovahn Jones) to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+3
57.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 3 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+9
57.7%
David Cobb run for 9 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
57.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
57.7%
Peter Mortell punt for 50 yds , Miles Shuler returns for no gain to the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
57.8%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+5
57.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 5 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+6
57.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 6 yds to the Nwest 22 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
57.7%
Treyvon Green run for 6 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-5
57.7%
Siemian, Trevor pass complete to Shuler, Miles for 11 yards to the NU39, PENALTY NU illegal formation (Olson, Eric) 5 yards to the NU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+8
57.7%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
57.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
57.8%
Chris Gradone punt for 32 yds, downed at the Minn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 6:3358% → 63%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
58.1%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
58.4%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-5
58.3%
Leidner, Mitch pass complete to Jones, Donovahn for 19 yards to the NU36 (Harris, Matthew), PENALTY MINN ineligible downfield on pass (Bjorklund, Joe) 5 yards to the MINN40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+12
57.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 12 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
58.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 9 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+4
58.6%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
58.7%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+3
58.5%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+28
58.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 22 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, personal foul (Dean Lowry) to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
58.7%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Nwest 2Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
58.7%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Nwest 1Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD
18 plays · 71 yds · 7:0138% → 46%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
62.1%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
61.4%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Jayme Taylor for 2 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
61.3%
Trevor Siemian run for 2 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
61.6%
Trevor Siemian run for 2 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-5
61.6%
Siemian, Trevor pass complete to Shuler, Miles for 39 yards to the MINN19 (Travis,Damarius), PENALTY NU illegal formation (Olson, Eric) 5 yards to the NU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+5
62.2%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+12
62.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 12 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
61.5%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-6
61.5%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Michael Amaefula for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 46 Trevor Siemian fumbled, recovered by Nwest Matt Frazier , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+11
62.4%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Solomon Vault for 11 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
60.8%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
60.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+9
62.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 9 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+3
62.1%
Warren Long run for 3 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
60.6%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Minn 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+4
60.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 4 yds to the Minn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
54.4%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 11 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5158% → 68%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.4%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
58.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
58.0%
David Cobb run for 7 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+57
59.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 52 yds to the MINNESOTA 10 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, personal foul (Godwin Igwebuike) to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
60.8%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Nwest 1Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
65.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+4
65.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 4 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
66.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
66.7%
Chris Gradone punt for 35 yds , Craig James returns for no gain to the Minn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -20 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
68.7%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Chance Carter for a loss of 8 yards to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 18
OWN 34
-1
67.1%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 19
OWN 33
-11
66.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the Minn 37 MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul (Maxx Williams) to the Minn 22Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 30
OWN 22
0
65.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 53 yds, downed at the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8FG
17 plays · 73 yds · 5:1633% → 39%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
67.0%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
66.2%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-5
65.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 5 yds to the Nwest 46 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
66.6%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+19
67.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 19 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
64.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 9 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+6
64.3%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
63.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+6
64.5%
Treyvon Green run for 6 yds to the Minn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
63.2%
Treyvon Green run for 1 yd to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+12
63.2%
Justin Jackson run for 12 yds to the Minn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
63.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Minn 3Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
63.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tim Hanrahan for 1 yd to the Minn 2Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
65.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
61.4%
Jack Mitchell 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
64.2%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
62.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 2 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
62.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 3 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
63.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 4 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+2
63.3%
Chris Gradone punt for 42 yds , Craig James returns for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
64.0%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+5
63.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Donovahn Jones for 5 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
63.0%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Nick VanHoose return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 36%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
50
+4
59.4%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+8
59.5%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
59.4%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Steven Richardson and Alex Keith for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 17
OPP 45
0
61.6%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 17
OPP 45
0
62.9%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
64.2%
Chris Gradone punt for 40 yds, downed at the Minn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 43 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
66.5%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+3
66.3%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+20
65.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 20 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
67.1%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
67.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 6 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
68.2%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
68.9%
Berkley Edwards run for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 38Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+10
67.3%
David Cobb run for 10 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
68.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to David Cobb MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
67.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
66.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+11
67.0%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
66.2%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-1
65.0%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+5
67.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 5 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+3
66.8%
Chris Gradone punt for 40 yds , Craig James returns for 3 yds to the Minn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:5970% → 84%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
69.6%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+24
69.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Donovahn Jones for 24 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
72.7%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
72.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 6 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
72.9%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
73.5%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+20
74.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 20 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
74.5%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
74.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to David Cobb for 5 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
73.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx Williams, broken up by Godwin IgwebuikeSimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
83.5%
Ryan Santoso 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16TD
19 plays · 97 yds · 4:4220% → 58%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
79.8%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 3Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+3
80.2%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+11
81.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 11 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
79.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 11 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
78.2%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+10
79.5%
Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
77.4%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
50
+14
74.9%
Siemian, Trevor pass incomplete to Taylor, Jayme, PENALTY MINN pass interference (Myrick, Jalen) 14 yards to the MINN36, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
74.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 13 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
72.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Treyvon Green for 13 yds to the Minn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
72.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
74.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony Jones, broken up by Jalen Myrick NORTHWESTERN Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
77.1%
Siemian, Trevor pass incomplete to Shuler, Miles, PENALTY MINN personal foul (Boddy-Calhoun,B) 5 yards to the MINN5, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
74.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (3 Yards) to the Minn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.8%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Minn 2Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.8%
Trevor Siemian run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
83.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 6 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+1
81.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
81.7%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
84.1%
Chris Gradone punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0090% → 88%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
50
+11
90.2%
David Cobb run for 11 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.3%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-3
90.1%
David Cobb run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 13
OPP 42
0
89.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
87.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 47 yds · 0:0013% → 16%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.4%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony Jones, broken up by Eric MurraySimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
87.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 15 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
85.8%
Siemian, Trevor pass incomplete to Vitale, Dan, PENALTY NU holding (Olson, Eric) 10 yards to the NU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+21
87.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 21 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
84.1%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron Dickerson, broken up by Eric MurraySimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
84.9%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
86.0%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Dan Vitale, broken up by Damarius TravisSimilar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+14
88.4%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 14 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
82.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Mike McHugh for 4 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
81.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Jayme Taylor for 3 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
81.7%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron Dickerson, broken up by Eric MurraySimilar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
84.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Kyle PraterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4995% → 98%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
94.8%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
95.2%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+2
97.8%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
97.6%
Peter Mortell punt for 43 yds, downed at the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
92.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 10 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
92.0%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Miles Shuler for 18 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
90.2%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Miles Shuler, broken up by Craig JamesSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
90.6%
Trevor Siemian pass intercepted Damarius Travis return for 8 yds to the Minn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:19
Jack Mitchell kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Myrick return for 100 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
+42
TD · Q4 7:32
Trevor Siemian run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
-31.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:35
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 36
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com