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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 24 at Minnesota 35

MINN
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:39 · Cody Clark 41 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior+5.1Home team on offense+26.1Score differential+10.0Garbage-time factor+8.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.8Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:40: Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +6.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:21: David Cobb run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:57: Reggie Whatley run for 44 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:17: David Cobb run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:09: Reggie Whatley run for 12 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 12:06MINN 4th & 2 at MTSU 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:06MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:18MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:49MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:40MTSU 4th & 5 at MINN 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:11MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:14MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:07MTSU 4th & 12 at MINN 41, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    32% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:57MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 34, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:12MTSU 4th & 4 at MINN 4, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.6%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:09MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 37, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 43, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:39MTSU 4th & 13 at MINN 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:39MINN 4th & 5 at MTSU 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:18MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:52MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:40MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:21MINN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:57MTSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:17MINN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:09MTSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:45MTSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1MISSED FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:5482% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
82.0%
KJ Maye run for 1 yd to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
82.0%
David Cobb run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
82.0%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Jones, Donovahn, PENALTY MT pass interference (WALKER, Xavier) 15 yards to the MT34, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
82.0%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
82.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 5 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
82.0%
David Cobb run for no gain to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+44
81.4%
Ryan Santoso 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
81.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 3 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
81.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 2 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
81.3%
Austin Grammer run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+9
81.3%
Zachary Lopez punt for 43 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 9 yds to the Minn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:5581% → 82%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
80.8%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
80.9%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
80.9%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
80.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Donovahn Jones for 17 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
81.1%
Berkley Edwards run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
81.1%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+7
81.1%
David Cobb run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
81.2%
David Cobb run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
81.2%
Donnell Kirkwood run for 17 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.2%
Donnell Kirkwood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.5%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
81.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 10 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
81.2%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Shane TuckerSimilar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
81.3%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+4
81.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 4 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
81.2%
Zachary Lopez punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
81.5%
Berkley Edwards run for 2 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
81.4%
Donnell Kirkwood run for 1 yd to the Minn 23Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
81.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn JonesSimilar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 7
OWN 23
-2
80.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 42 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 21 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal block (N/A) to the MTnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6INT TD
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4919% → 16%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
81.0%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 2 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-6
81.0%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+14
81.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 14 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
80.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (N/A) to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+1
81.0%
Austin Grammer run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+31
84.2%
Austin Grammer pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Myrick return for 31 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.1%
Reggie Whatley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
84.0%
Reggie Whatley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
84.1%
Austin Grammer pass intercepted Damien Wilson return for 1 yd to the MTnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8TD
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
90.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 46 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.9%
Jordan Parker run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
89.7%
Jordan Parker run for no gain to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
89.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 7 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
89.7%
Jordan Parker run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+7
90.0%
Austin Grammer run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+8
89.8%
Shane Tucker run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
50
+14
89.4%
Reggie Whatley run for 14 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
89.4%
Reggie Whatley run for no gain to the Minn 36Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
89.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 5 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
89.3%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+2
89.6%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
92.8%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
92.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn Jones, broken up by Xavier WalkerSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
92.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Isaac FruechteSimilar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
92.3%
Peter Mortell punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
91.7%
BRYSON, J. rush for 1 yard to the MT22 (Stelter, Andrew), PENALTY MT holding (STEPHENS, D.) 10 yards to the MT11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+14
91.7%
Shane Tucker run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+1
91.6%
Shane Tucker run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
91.7%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus Henry, broken up by Derrick WellsSimilar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+30
91.8%
Zachary Lopez punt for 35 yds, downed at the MINNESOTA 39 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Minn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 2:0794% → 98%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
93.7%
Berkley Edwards run for no gain to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+27
93.6%
David Cobb run for 27 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
93.7%
David Cobb run for 24 yds to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
93.7%
David Cobb run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.7%
David Cobb run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:142% → 2%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.7%
Reggie Whatley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+25
97.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shannon Smith for 25 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.5%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Jordan ParkerSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
97.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 10 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
97.5%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 3 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-5
97.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
97.6%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
97.9%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete MIDDLE TENN Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
98.0%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:2998% → 99%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
97.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 1
50
+5
97.9%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
97.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Donovahn Jones for 6 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+12
97.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Donovahn Jones for 12 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
97.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
98.5%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted, touchback. Kevin Byard return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
98.0%
WHATLEY, Reggie rush for 10 yards to the MT30 (Campbell, D.;Boddy-Calhoun,B), PENALTY MT holding (STICKEL, Adam) 10 yards to the MT10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
98.0%
Reggie Whatley run for no gain to the MTnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:032% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
98.1%
Austin Grammer sacked by Hendrick Ekpe for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+39
98.1%
Jordan Parker run for 39 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
94.1%
Reggie Whatley run for 44 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
95.7%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
95.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+4
95.6%
Donnell Kirkwood run for 4 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 13:57
4TH & 1
OWN 39
-5
95.4%
Mortell, Peter punt 51 yards to the MT10, fair catch by BATTIES, E., PENALTY MINN illegal formation 5 yards to the MINN34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:57
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
95.4%
Peter Mortell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties at the MTnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:565% → 7%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+27
95.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 27 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
94.7%
Jordan Parker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 47Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+39
94.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 39 yds to the Minn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
94.2%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the Minn 6Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
94.2%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Shannon SmithSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 0
OPP 6
+4
95.0%
GRAMMER, Austin pass incomplete to PETTIS, Terry, PENALTY MINN pass interference (James, Craig) 4 yards to the MINN2, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.1%
A.J. Erdely run for 1 yd to the Minn 1Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.1%
Shane Tucker run for no gain to the Minn 1Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
95.4%
Austin Grammer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 4Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
92.7%
Cody Clark 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:5595% → 99%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
95.2%
Berkley Edwards run for 2 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+7
95.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
95.1%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
95.2%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+7
95.4%
David Cobb run for 7 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
95.4%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 6
50
+2
95.4%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+48
99.2%
David Cobb run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.6%
Austin Grammer pass intercepted Briean Boddy-Calhoun return for no gain to the Minn 25 MINNESOTA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Briean Boddy-Calhoun) to the Minn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.1%
Berkley Edwards run for 1 yd to the Minn 36Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-3
99.2%
Isaac Fruechte run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 28 Isaac Fruechte fumbled, recovered by Minn Isaac Fruechte , return for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+9
99.1%
Berkley Edwards run for 9 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
99.1%
Peter Mortell punt blocked by Chase Pennycuff blocked by Chase PennycuffSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
93.9%
Reggie Whatley run for 12 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0996% → 97%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
96.2%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
96.2%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+9
96.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 9 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
96.4%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+3
97.1%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
97.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+9
96.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 36 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 9 yds to the MINNESOTA 48 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal block (Tony Rowland) to the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24MISSED FG
17 plays · 56 yds · 5:204% → 3%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
96.2%
Reggie Whatley run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
96.3%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus HenrySimilar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+14
96.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 14 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
96.0%
Reggie Whatley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
96.0%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+10
96.2%
Austin Grammer run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
96.0%
Jordan Parker run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
96.0%
Reggie Whatley run for 3 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+6
96.0%
Reggie Whatley run for 6 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
95.9%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-6
95.9%
Austin Grammer sacked by Damien Wilson for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+26
96.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 26 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
95.4%
Reggie Whatley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 13
OPP 24
0
95.6%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Ed'Marques BattiesSimilar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 13
OPP 24
0
95.9%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Shannon Smith, broken up by Jalen MyrickSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+41
97.2%
Cody Clark 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
98.1%
David Cobb run for 11 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
98.1%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
98.1%
David Cobb run for 9 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.2%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
98.2%
Donnell Kirkwood run for no gain to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+2
98.2%
Chris Streveler run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
98.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 3:502% → 5%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
98.5%
Reggie Whatley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
98.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Chris Perkins for 7 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
98.4%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+10
98.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Chris Perkins for 10 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
98.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Christian Collis for 11 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.3%
Austin Grammer run for no gain to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
98.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 5 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+12
98.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 12 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.9%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Demetrius FrazierSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
98.0%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 12 yds to the Minn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
97.9%
Austin Grammer run for 3 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+7
97.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 7 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
97.9%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the Minn 3Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 3 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:40
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q3 2:09
Reggie Whatley run for 12 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q2 4:21
David Cobb run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com