2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreMTSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:07 · Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus Henry
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:40: Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +6.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:21: David Cobb run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:57: Reggie Whatley run for 44 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:17: David Cobb run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:09: Reggie Whatley run for 12 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 12:06MINN 4th & 2 at MTSU 26, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snapGo for it82.0%57% to convertField goalTheir call81.9%−0.164% to makePunt81.6%−0.4average punt
- Q1 12:06MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 35, tiedClose callPunted · 18.1% before the snapGo for it18.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:18MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 48, down 7Close callPunted · 18.2% before the snapGo for it18.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.0%−0.3average punt
- Q1 2:49MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snapGo for it81.3%−0.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.7%average punt
- Q2 13:40MTSU 4th & 5 at MINN 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.0%41% to convertField goal9.9%−0.154% to makePunt9.5%−0.6average punt
- Q2 9:11MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 33, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snapGo for it92.2%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.6%average punt
- Q2 8:14MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 26, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.7%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q2 2:07MTSU 4th & 12 at MINN 41, down 28Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%−0.124% to convertField goal1.5%32% to makePunt1.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 13:57MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 34, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.2%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q3 8:12MTSU 4th & 4 at MINN 4, down 21Close callKicked a field goal · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.9%40% to convertField goalTheir call3.6%−0.393% to makePunt0.6%−3.3average punt
- Q3 4:09MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 37, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.9%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 43, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.6%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%average punt
- Q4 8:39MTSU 4th & 13 at MINN 24, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.720% to convertField goalTheir call3.2%68% to makePunt1.3%−1.9average punt
- Q4 8:39MINN 4th & 5 at MTSU 49, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 5:18MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.7%97% to makeGo for two81.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:52MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%97% to makeGo for two84.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:40MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:21MINN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:57MTSU Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.9%97% to makeGo for two4.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:17MINN Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:09MTSU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.8%97% to makeGo for two3.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:45MTSU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call3.6%−0.197% to makeGo for two3.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMINNDrive 1MISSED FG8 plays · 39 yds · 2:5482% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
82.0%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Jones, Donovahn, PENALTY MT pass interference (WALKER, Xavier) 15 yards to the MT34, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
82.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 5 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
81.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 3 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
81.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 2 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+9
81.3%
Zachary Lopez punt for 43 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 9 yds to the Minn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3TD10 plays · 69 yds · 4:5581% → 82%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
80.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Donovahn Jones for 17 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
MINNDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q1 2:49
4TH & 7
OWN 23
-2
80.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 42 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 21 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal block (N/A) to the MTnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6INT TD6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4919% → 16%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
81.0%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 2 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-6
81.0%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+14
81.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 14 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+31
84.2%
Austin Grammer pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Myrick return for 31 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7INT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
MINNDrive 8TD1 play · 27 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
90.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9DOWNS12 plays · 46 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
MINNDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q2 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
92.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn Jones, broken up by Xavier WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
91.7%
BRYSON, J. rush for 1 yard to the MT22 (Stelter, Andrew), PENALTY MT holding (STEPHENS, D.) 10 yards to the MT11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
91.7%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus Henry, broken up by Derrick WellsSimilar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+30
91.8%
Zachary Lopez punt for 35 yds, downed at the MINNESOTA 39 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Minn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD5 plays · 56 yds · 2:0794% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13DOWNS11 plays · 34 yds · 2:142% → 2%
Q2 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+25
97.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shannon Smith for 25 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
97.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 10 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
97.9%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete MIDDLE TENN Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14INT7 plays · 36 yds · 1:2998% → 99%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
97.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Donovahn Jones for 6 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+12
97.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Donovahn Jones for 12 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
98.5%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted, touchback. Kevin Byard return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · -10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
MTSUDrive 16TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:032% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
98.1%
Austin Grammer sacked by Hendrick Ekpe for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 13:57
4TH & 1
OWN 39
-5
95.4%
Mortell, Peter punt 51 yards to the MT10, fair catch by BATTIES, E., PENALTY MINN illegal formation 5 yards to the MINN34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:57
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
95.4%
Peter Mortell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties at the MTnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18FG11 plays · 69 yds · 3:565% → 7%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+27
95.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 27 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+39
94.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 39 yds to the Minn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 0
OPP 6
+4
95.0%
GRAMMER, Austin pass incomplete to PETTIS, Terry, PENALTY MINN pass interference (James, Craig) 4 yards to the MINN2, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19TD9 plays · 78 yds · 3:5595% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.6%
Austin Grammer pass intercepted Briean Boddy-Calhoun return for no gain to the Minn 25 MINNESOTA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Briean Boddy-Calhoun) to the Minn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 4:09
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-3
99.2%
Isaac Fruechte run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 28 Isaac Fruechte fumbled, recovered by Minn Isaac Fruechte , return for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
99.1%
Peter Mortell punt blocked by Chase Pennycuff blocked by Chase PennycuffSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22TD1 play · 12 yds · 0:006% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0996% → 97%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+9
96.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 36 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 9 yds to the MINNESOTA 48 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal block (Tony Rowland) to the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24MISSED FG17 plays · 56 yds · 5:204% → 3%
Q4 13:59
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+14
96.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 14 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-6
95.9%
Austin Grammer sacked by Damien Wilson for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+26
96.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 26 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 13
OPP 24
0
95.9%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Shannon Smith, broken up by Jalen MyrickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26TD15 plays · 80 yds · 3:502% → 5%
Q4 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
98.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Chris Perkins for 7 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+10
98.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Chris Perkins for 10 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
98.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Christian Collis for 11 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
98.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 5 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+12
98.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 12 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
98.0%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 12 yds to the Minn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+7
97.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 7 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 3 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:40
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q3 2:09
Reggie Whatley run for 12 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q2 4:21
David Cobb run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
+4