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MSU

Michigan State 34 at Penn State 10

PSU
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:44 · Sam Ficken 51 yd FG MISSED (short)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Home team on offense−0.5Pregame prior−29.4Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:13: Michael Geiger 39 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:34: Sam Ficken 41 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:24: Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +9.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:29: Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:37: Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK) — PSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:44PSU 4th & 10 at MSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:41MSU 4th & 10 at PSU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:48PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:13MSU 4th & 8 at PSU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:52PSU 4th & 18 at MSU 36, down 13
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:17MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 4, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:36PSU 4th & 15 at MSU 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:50MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 7, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−2.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:34PSU 4th & 6 at MSU 23, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:35PSU 4th & 27 at PSU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:27MSU 4th & 18 at PSU 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−2.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:05PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 34, down 17
    Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:53MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 31, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:56PSU 4th & 20 at PSU 20, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:39PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:10PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 38, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q3 7:24MSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:29MSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:37PSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:49MSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:4720% → 20%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
19.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 17 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
19.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 12 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
20.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
20.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+9
20.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 9 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
20.4%
Chris Godwin run for no gain to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
20.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
20.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Jesse JamesSimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
20.3%
Sam Ficken 51 yd FG MISSED (short)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:5380% → 80%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
20.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+15
20.3%
PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Austin Johnson) to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
20.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 17 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
20.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-1
20.5%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+4
20.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 4 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
20.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
20.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Keith MumpherySimilar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
20.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
20.4%
Michael Geiger 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4621% → 21%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
20.8%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
21.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Akeel Lynch for 3 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+11
21.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 11 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
21.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
21.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
21.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Jesse JamesSimilar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
21.3%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 5:2979% → 81%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
21.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 13 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
21.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 9 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+5
21.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
21.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 15 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
21.1%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+15
21.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 15 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
20.9%
Connor Cook run for 3 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+4
21.0%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. run for 4 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q1 0:46
3RD & 3
OPP 17
-5
21.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Kodi Kieler) to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
21.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
19.4%
Michael Geiger 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:0920% → 20%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
20.4%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+6
20.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 14:31
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+11
20.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 11 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
20.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 30 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
21.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
21.6%
Chris Godwin run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-9
21.0%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Marcus Rush and Riley Bullough for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 18
OPP 36
0
20.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 34 yds, downed at the MchSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2880% → 80%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
19.8%
Delton Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 5
-1
19.9%
Delton Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 4Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
20.2%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 8
OWN 4
0
20.4%
Mike Sadler punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the MchSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3021% → 20%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
21.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Akeel Lynch for 1 yd to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-6
21.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 15
OPP 46
0
20.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
19.9%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3180% → 79%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
19.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-7
19.9%
Connor Cook sacked by Anthony Zettel for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 7Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 15
OWN 7
0
20.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 15
OWN 7
+7
20.7%
Mike Sadler punt for 40 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for 7 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0721% → 22%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
21.0%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+10
20.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Trae Waynes) to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
21.0%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
21.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-5
20.1%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+6
19.7%
Christian Hackenberg run for 6 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+41
21.6%
Sam Ficken 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11INT
14 plays · 21 yds · 3:3878% → 79%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
21.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+6
21.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
21.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
21.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
21.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+18
22.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 18 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
20.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
20.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
21.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 15
OWN 48
-5
20.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Tony Lippett) to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+7
21.0%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Anthony Zettel return for 7 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:2123% → 24%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
23.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 9 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
24.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+4
23.0%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
24.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
24.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted, touchback. Trae Waynes return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
21.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 4:1520% → 19%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
20.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
21.2%
Bill Belton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
20.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
21.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 12 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
21.8%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-12
21.5%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Malik McDowell for a loss of 12 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 22
OWN 39
-5
19.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Christian Hackenberg) to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 27
OWN 34
0
19.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 27
OWN 34
0
18.6%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 29 yds, downed at the MchSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:0680% → 90%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
19.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
20.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+25
20.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 25 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+31
19.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 31 yds to the PnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
19.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
19.0%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the PnSt 3Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
9.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
11.4%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Marcus Rush for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 18 Christian Hackenberg fumbled, forced by Marcus Rush, recovered by MchSt Taiwan Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:3291% → 97%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
9.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+7
9.0%
Connor Cook run for 7 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
8.8%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 8Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
8.5%
R.J. Shelton run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 10Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
2.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 2:434% → 12%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
3.7%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
3.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+12
3.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 12 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
3.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 26 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
3.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 16 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
4.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
4.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 9 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+13
3.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 13 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
3.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q3 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19MISSED FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 5:5493% → 95%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
7.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
6.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+5
6.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 5 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
6.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 16 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
5.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+11
5.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 11 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
5.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 13 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
5.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Aaron Burbridge) to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 15
OPP 24
0
5.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 15
OPP 24
-3
4.9%
Connor Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 18
OPP 27
0
4.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jeremy Langford for no gain to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 18
OPP 27
+44
5.4%
Michael Geiger 44 yd FG MISSED (wide left)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:165% → 5%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
4.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 3 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
5.0%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
5.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
4.9%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 63 yds, downed at the MchSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:0895% → 97%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
4.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
4.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+17
4.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 17 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
4.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+4
4.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+2
3.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
3.4%
Mike Sadler punt for 49 yds, downed at the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:464% → 3%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
3.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 10 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
3.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
2.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Akeel LynchSimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-10
2.8%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Akeel Lynch) to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 20
OWN 20
0
2.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 20
OWN 20
0
2.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:5298% → 100%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
2.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
2.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+5
2.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 10 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
0.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 6 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
0.8%
Christian Hackenberg run for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
0.7%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+1
0.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
0.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
0.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Jesse JamesSimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
0.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:24
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-9.4
TD · Q3 1:37
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q3 4:29
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com