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MSU

Michigan State 45 at Purdue 31

PUR
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:04 · Thomas Meadows punt for 34 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 15 yds to the Prdue 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior−22.0Home team on offense−18.0Score differential−9.4Garbage-time factor−6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:43: Austin Appleby pass complete to B.J. Knauf for 9 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK) — PUR win probability +6.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  2. TD · Q3 7:16: Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:49: Nick Hill run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:49: Akeem Hunt run for 52 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK) — PUR win probability +4.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:19: Akeem Hunt run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK) — PUR win probability +19.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 7:25PUR 4th & 7 at MSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:36PUR 4th & 8 at PUR 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:19MSU 4th & 10 at PUR 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:28MSU 4th & 10 at PUR 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:49PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:04PUR 4th & 22 at PUR 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:37PUR 4th & 10 at PUR 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:00MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 17, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:41PUR 4th & 11 at PUR 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:49PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:31MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 29, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:59MSU 4th & 5 at PUR 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:58PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:56PUR 4th & 17 at PUR 27, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:44MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:47MSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:37MSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:00PUR Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:43PUR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:16MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:49MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:49PUR Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:19PUR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1193% → 92%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
7.2%
R.J. Shelton run for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
7.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 6 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
7.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
7.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Keith MumpherySimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+8
7.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jeremy Langford for 8 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
8.0%
Connor Cook run for 6 yds to the Prdue 46Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+7
8.2%
R.J. Shelton run for 7 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
7.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 39 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 4:088% → 10%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
8.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to B.J. Knauf for 6 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+13
8.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 13 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+36
8.5%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 36 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
8.8%
Akeem Hunt run for 3 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
9.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to B.J. Knauf for no gain to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+5
9.3%
Akeem Hunt run for 5 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 2
OPP 14
-5
9.3%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
9.9%
Paul Griggs 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3290% → 91%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
9.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 16 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
9.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
10.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 8 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
10.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jeremy LangfordSimilar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
10.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the Prdue 46Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+21
10.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 21 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
10.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-15
10.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Josiah Price) to the Prdue 40Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 25
OPP 40
+27
10.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 27 yds to the Prdue 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
10.6%
PURDUE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the Prdue 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.5%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5210% → 10%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
9.7%
Akeem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+11
9.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Justin Sinz for 11 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
10.0%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
10.0%
Akeem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
10.0%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+1
10.0%
Thomas Meadows punt for 41 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 1 yd to the MchSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 4:5490% → 94%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
10.3%
Nick Hill run for 9 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+2
10.2%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
10.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 13 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
10.2%
Nick Hill run for 3 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
10.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 5 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+5
10.4%
Nick Hill run for 5 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
10.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
10.0%
Connor Cook run for 13 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+31
10.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 31 yds to the Prdue 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
10.2%
Connor Cook run for 1 yd to the Prdue 2Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:318% → 13%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
8.0%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
7.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to B.J. Knauf for 9 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
8.0%
Akeem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
8.0%
Akeem Hunt run for 18 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+36
8.5%
Keyante Green run for 36 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
9.0%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 13 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.9%
Akeem Hunt run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:3089% → 90%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
11.5%
Delton Williams run for 30 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
11.1%
Connor Cook run for 9 yds to the Prdue 36 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Prdue 46Similar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 11
OPP 46
-3
11.1%
Aaron Burbridge run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 49Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 14
OPP 49
0
11.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+24
11.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 24 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
11.3%
Delton Williams run for no gain to the Prdue 25Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
11.4%
Connor Cook run for no gain to the Prdue 25Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
11.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
9.6%
Michael Geiger 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:1110% → 19%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
10.0%
B.J. Knauf run for 9 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+6
10.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Justin Sinz for 6 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
10.7%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
10.7%
PURDUE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 38Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+30
10.2%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 30 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
11.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to B.J. Knauf for 4 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+8
12.0%
Raheem Mostert run for 8 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
11.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 11 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
18.5%
Austin Appleby pass complete to B.J. Knauf for 9 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:0186% → 86%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
14.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+28
14.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 28 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
12.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 14 yds to the Prdue 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
12.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
12.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jeremy LangfordSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
13.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
13.9%
Michael Geiger 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
16.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0215% → 15%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
15.3%
Akeem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+1
15.8%
Akeem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Prdue 23Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+3
15.2%
Austin Appleby run for 3 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
15.1%
Thomas Meadows punt for 51 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for no gain to the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 5:2585% → 92%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
15.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+15
15.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 15 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
14.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+4
14.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
14.2%
Aaron Burbridge run for 4 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+15
14.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 15 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
14.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+13
14.3%
Aaron Burbridge run for 13 yds to the Prdue 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
14.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the Prdue 15Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+8
14.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 8 yds to the Prdue 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-6
14.2%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 6 yards to the Prdue 13Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
14.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q3 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
7.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:079% → 9%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
9.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (RJ Williamson) to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
10.1%
Austin Appleby sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 15 yards to the Prdue 25 PURDUE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Austin Appleby) to the Prdue 25Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 25
OWN 25
+3
9.1%
Austin Appleby run for 3 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 22
OWN 28
0
9.0%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 22
OWN 28
+15
9.0%
Thomas Meadows punt for 34 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 15 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 0:5593% → 98%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+37
7.3%
Nick Hill run for 37 yds to the Prdue 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
7.0%
Connor Cook run for 6 yds to the Prdue 4Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.0%
Nick Hill run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:583% → 3%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
3.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 5 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
3.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Justin Sinz for 3 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+8
3.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Akeem Hunt for 8 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
3.2%
Akeem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Prdue 46Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-1
3.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to B.J. Knauf for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 45Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
3.0%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Akeem HuntSimilar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
2.8%
Thomas Meadows punt for 41 yds, downed at the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3398% → 98%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
1.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to AJ TroupSimilar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
1.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
1.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 7
OWN 17
+1
1.9%
Mike Sadler punt for 42 yds , Frankie Williams returns for 1 yd to the Prdue 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:263% → 3%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
2.8%
Raheem Mostert run for 2 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-3
2.8%
Austin Appleby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
2.6%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Akeem HuntSimilar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+16
2.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 16 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
2.8%
Austin Appleby run for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 49 Austin Appleby fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:1599% → 99%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
1.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 11 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
1.1%
Delton Williams run for 9 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+5
1.1%
Delton Williams run for 5 yds to the Prdue 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
1.1%
R.J. Shelton run for 6 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-1
1.0%
Connor Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 21Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+24
0.9%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Frankie Williams return for 24 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 2:062% → 6%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
2.0%
Austin Appleby run for 3 yds to the Prdue 43Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-2
2.0%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Akeem Hunt for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+7
1.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 7 yds to the Prdue 48Similar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+52
6.4%
Akeem Hunt run for 52 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1096% → 96%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
3.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
3.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
3.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
3.9%
Lawrence Thomas run for 1 yd to the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:057% → 26%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
7.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Justin Sinz for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+12
6.4%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Gabe Holmes for 12 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
6.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Darian Hicks) to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.2%
Akeem Hunt run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:1186% → 89%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
14.1%
R.J. Shelton run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
13.7%
Nick Hill run for 5 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
11.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Trevon Pendleton for 2 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+8
11.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 8 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
10.8%
Nick Hill run for 5 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
9.4%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
10.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
11.3%
Mike Sadler punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23INT TD
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:2718% → 2%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
18.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 2 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+2
16.5%
Austin Appleby pass complete to B.J. Knauf for 2 yds to the Prdue 9Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 6
OWN 9
0
13.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 6
OWN 9
+11
12.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 11 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
14.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Akeem HuntSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
14.0%
Austin Appleby run for 2 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+15
2.3%
Austin Appleby pass intercepted for a TD Darien Harris return for 15 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:152% → 2%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
2.4%
Austin Appleby sacked by Ed Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 27Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 17
OWN 27
0
2.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 17
OWN 27
0
2.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 17
OWN 27
0
2.0%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2099% → 99%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
1.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-1
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:19
Akeem Hunt run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)
+19.8
TD · Q3 7:16
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q2 1:43
Austin Appleby pass complete to B.J. Knauf for 9 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com