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NEB

Nebraska 22 at Michigan State 27

MSU
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:21 · Sam Foltz punt for 26 yds, downed at the MchSt 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense−0.3Pregame prior+22.5Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:48: Jeremy Langford run for 31 yds for a TD (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:32: Michael Geiger 28 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:12: Drew Brown 40 yd FG GOOD — NEB win probability +3.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:02: Tony Lippett run for 32 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:10: Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +7.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 13NEB made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:27NEB 4th & 11 at MSU 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:32MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:21NEB 4th & 8 at MSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:37NEB 4th & 6 at MSU 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:31MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:30MSU 4th & 2 at NEB 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:56NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:57NEB 4th & 16 at NEB 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:05NEB 4th & 10 at MSU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:32MSU 4th & 2 at NEB 10, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.8%−1.0
    88% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:54NEB 4th & 22 at NEB 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:47MSU 4th & 1 at NEB 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:14MSU 4th & 10 at NEB 45, up 17
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:51NEB 4th & 16 at NEB 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−2.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:44MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:18MSU 4th & 5 at NEB 10, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−6.0
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:12NEB 4th & 19 at MSU 23, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−2.8
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:35NEB 4th & 10 at MSU 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:00MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 41, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:54MSU 4th & 19 at MSU 13, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:52NEB 4th & 5 at MSU 36, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:47MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 48, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:22MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 19, up 11
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.7
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:07MSU 4th & 3 at NEB 19, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−5.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NEB made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 8:22MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:48MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:02MSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:10NEB Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:3475% → 75%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
74.7%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
74.6%
Connor Cook pass intercepted Randy Gregory return for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4326% → 26%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
74.5%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-2
74.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
74.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 11
OPP 31
0
74.4%
Sam Foltz punt for 31 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4974% → 74%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
74.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
74.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
74.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony Lippett, broken up by Daniel DavieSimilar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
74.1%
Mike Sadler punt for 44 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:0526% → 27%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
74.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+16
74.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Andy Janovich for 16 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
73.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 6 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-2
73.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-2
73.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Ed Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
73.5%
Sam Foltz punt for 26 yds, downed at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:5274% → 76%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
73.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+21
73.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 21 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
75.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 55 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:4025% → 25%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.2%
Ameer Abdullah run for 5 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
75.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 6 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
75.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 24 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
74.6%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+1
74.6%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-5
74.8%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (Jake Cotton) to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+7
75.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
75.1%
Sam Foltz punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:0176% → 75%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
75.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+8
75.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 8 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
75.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
75.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
75.3%
Mike Sadler punt for 37 yds, downed at the Neb 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3625% → 25%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
75.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
75.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Trae Waynes return for no gain to the MchSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:1176% → 76%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
76.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+9
76.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 9 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
76.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
76.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-1
76.7%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 45Similar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
76.3%
Mike Sadler punt for 44 yds, downed at the Neb 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2924% → 23%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
76.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the Neb 2Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
76.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+5
76.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 5 yds to the Neb 7Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 4
OWN 7
+19
77.1%
Sam Foltz punt for 43 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 19 yds to the Neb 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
82.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 31 yds for a TD (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3819% → 18%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
80.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 27Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+1
81.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 1 yd to the Neb 28Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 12
OWN 28
-4
81.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Lawrence Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 24Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 16
OWN 24
-3
81.7%
Sam Foltz punt for 54 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:2683% → 83%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
82.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 22 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.2%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the MchSt 41 Jeremy Langford fumbled, forced by Vincent Valentine, recovered by Neb Byerson CockrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · -4 yds · 2:1319% → 18%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
80.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Taariq Allen for 9 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
80.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for no gain to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
80.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
80.5%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
81.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Taariq Allen for no gain to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
81.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Ameer AbdullahSimilar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
82.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Taariq Allen, broken up by RJ WilliamsonSimilar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 10
OPP 45
+8
82.5%
Sam Foltz punt for 29 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 8 yds to the MchSt 24 Macgarrett Kings Jr. fumbled, recovered by NebSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:3519% → 19%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
80.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+10
80.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 10 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
80.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+38
81.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the MchSt 7 Ameer Abdullah fumbled, forced by Ed Davis, recovered by MchSt Shilique Calhoun , return for 38 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:4584% → 88%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
84.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 25 yds to the Neb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
84.4%
R.J. Shelton run for 7 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+5
84.5%
Nick Hill run for 5 yds to the Neb 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
84.6%
Nick Hill run for 5 yds to the Neb 13Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
84.8%
Nick Hill run for 4 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-1
84.6%
Nick Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 10Similar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+28
88.4%
Michael Geiger 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 1:2714% → 13%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
86.3%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete to Allen, Taariq, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Waynes, Trae) 7 yards to the NEBRASKA38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
85.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Taariq Allen for no gain to the Neb 38Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
86.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Ameer AbdullahSimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-5
86.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Neb 33Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 15
OWN 33
-7
86.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 26Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 22
OWN 26
-5
87.4%
Sam Foltz punt for 46 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 2:3489% → 89%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
89.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
89.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+31
89.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 31 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge, broken up by Joshua KaluSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
90.1%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+9
89.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 9 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+6
90.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds to the Neb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
90.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jack Allen) to the Neb 45Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.7%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
90.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
89.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
88.6%
Mike Sadler punt for 43 yds, downed at the Neb 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
88.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:0412% → 11%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 20Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-1
88.5%
Ameer Abdullah run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 19Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
88.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+45
88.8%
Sam Foltz punt for 35 yds, downed at the MICHIGANST 46 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Demetrious Cox) to the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0188% → 89%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
88.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 13 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
89.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-6
89.9%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 14
OWN 45
0
89.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Keith MumpherySimilar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
89.1%
Mike Sadler punt for 38 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:5110% → 10%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
89.6%
Abdullah, Ameer rush for 2 yards to the NEBRASKA19, PENALTY NEBRASKA holding (Lewis, Alex) 8 yards to the NEBRASKA9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 18
OWN 9
+1
90.2%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the Neb 10Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 17
OWN 10
0
90.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Taariq AllenSimilar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 17
OWN 10
+5
90.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 5 yds to the Neb 15 Tommy Armstrong Jr. fumbled, forced by Marcus Rush, recovered by MchStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2392% → 96%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
91.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the Neb 13Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
92.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the Neb 10Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
92.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
95.8%
Michael Geiger 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 3:015% → 8%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
95.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 13 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
95.4%
Ameer Abdullah run for 9 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
95.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+17
95.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 17 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
95.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
95.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Sam CottonSimilar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+17
95.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 17 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
95.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Sam CottonSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-4
95.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Taiwan Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 18Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 14
OPP 18
-5
95.8%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 19
OPP 23
0
95.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Ameer AbdullahSimilar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 19
OPP 23
+40
92.4%
Drew Brown 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 4:0093% → 98%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
93.1%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+6
93.3%
Nick Hill run for 6 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+18
93.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 18 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
94.1%
Nick Hill run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-6
94.3%
Connor Cook run for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+29
94.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 29 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
98.3%
Tony Lippett run for 32 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26FUMBLE
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:222% → 2%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 12 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
97.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 26 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
97.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
97.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for no gain to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
98.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q3 0:35
4TH & 10
OPP 37
-4
98.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 41 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Neb Tommy Armstrong Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.5%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
98.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
98.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jeremy Langford for no gain to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+33
98.5%
Mike Sadler punt for 35 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 33 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 28TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:042% → 5%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
98.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 11 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
98.3%
Fyfe, Ryker pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul (Heath, Joel) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.3%
Ryker Fyfe pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
98.3%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 9 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+3
98.4%
Ameer Abdullah run for 3 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for 3 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryker Fyfe failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:4397% → 96%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
97.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Keith Mumphery, broken up by Josh MitchellSimilar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 7
OWN 25
-12
96.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jack Allen) to the MchSt 13Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 19
OWN 13
0
96.3%
Mike Sadler punt for 42 yds, downed at the Neb 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 30DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:564% → 4%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
96.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 14 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
96.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-10
96.3%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete to Moore, Alonzo, PENALTY NEBRASKA holding (Lewis, Alex) 10 yards to the NEBRASKA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 20
OWN 49
+15
96.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 15 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
96.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
96.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Taariq AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 31PUNT
12 plays · 12 yds · 5:0597% → 98%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
97.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Shilique Calhoun) to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
97.2%
R.J. Shelton run for 6 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+7
97.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
97.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-2
97.4%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+15
97.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 15 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
97.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
97.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
97.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
98.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony Lippett, broken up by Josh MitchellSimilar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
97.9%
Mike Sadler punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 32TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 1:323% → 10%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
97.4%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete to Allen, Taariq, PENALTY MICHIGANST offside 5 yards to the NEBRASKA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+41
97.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 41 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
96.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Lane Hovey for 8 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+2
97.0%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
97.0%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete to Moore, Alonzo, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Waynes, Trae) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 33PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:3794% → 89%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
94.3%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 9Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+9
94.9%
R.J. Shelton run for 9 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
95.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the MchSt 19Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+62
88.6%
Mike Sadler punt for 43 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 62 yds for a TD, (Ameer Abdullah failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 34MISSED FG
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:0992% → 95%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
91.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 17 yds to the Neb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
93.1%
Nick Hill run for 4 yds to the Neb 22Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
95.4%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+1
95.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the Neb 19Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
94.8%
Michael Geiger 36 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 35INT
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:3210% → 14%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Ameer AbdullahSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+43
90.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 43 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
86.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Trae Waynes return for no gain to the MchSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 36END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:10
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q2 13:48
Jeremy Langford run for 31 yds for a TD (Michael Geiger KICK)
+5.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com