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JXST

Jacksonville State 7 at Michigan State 45

MSU
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2014 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:23: Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 71 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:35: Connor Cook pass complete to AJ Troup for 17 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:43: Nick Hill run for 17 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:01: Nick Hill run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: Michael Geiger 35 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7JXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:42JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05JXST 4th & 11 at JXST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:35MSU 4th & 2 at JXST 24, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:18JXST 4th & 8 at JXST 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:13JXST 4th & 9 at JXST 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:50MSU 4th & 1 at JXST 26, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:08JXST 4th & 19 at JXST 1, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00MSU 4th & 5 at JXST 18, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:26MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 28, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:52MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 40, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:36JXST 4th & 18 at JXST 42, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00JXST 4th & 8 at MSU 8, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:51MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 38, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:33JXST 4th & 13 at JXST 14, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:49MSU 4th & 9 at JXST 39, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6JXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:57MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:23MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:35MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:43MSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:01MSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:37JXST Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:18MSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JXSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:183% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+32
96.6%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Josh Barge for 32 yds to the JaxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
96.6%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Bo Brummel for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 4
50
-1
96.5%
DaMarcus James run for a loss of 1 yard to the JaxSt 49Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
96.5%
Eli Jenkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
96.4%
Hamish MacInnes punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:4596% → 96%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
96.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+11
96.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
96.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 64 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:524% → 4%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.2%
Eli Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the JaxSt 24Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
96.1%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to DaMarcus JamesSimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
96.1%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Josh BargeSimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
96.1%
Hamish MacInnes punt for 49 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:4296% → 96%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
96.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+71
96.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 71 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 5INT
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:024% → 4%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Eli Jenkins run for no gain to the JaxSt 25Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
96.2%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Josh Barge for 23 yds to the JaxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
96.1%
Eli Jenkins pass intercepted Kurtis Drummond return for 17 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:4696% → 96%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
50
+4
96.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 46Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+14
96.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 14 yds to the JaxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
96.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 30Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+5
96.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 5 yds to the JaxSt 25Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+1
96.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 24Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+41
96.2%
Michael Geiger 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:174% → 4%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
96.0%
Eli Jenkins run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 26Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
95.9%
Eli Jenkins run for no gain to the JaxSt 26Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
95.9%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Troymaine PopeSimilar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
95.9%
Hamish MacInnes punt for 30 yds, downed at the MchSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:4396% → 97%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
96.2%
Nick Hill run for 3 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+21
96.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 21 yds to the JaxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
96.1%
Aaron Burbridge run for 15 yds to the JaxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
97.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to AJ Troup for 17 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 9INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:323% → 3%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
96.9%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Josh Barge for 4 yds to the JaxSt 19Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+12
96.9%
Eli Jenkins run for 12 yds to the JaxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
96.8%
DaMarcus James run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 32Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
97.0%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Josh BargeSimilar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
97.0%
Eli Jenkins pass intercepted Darian Hicks return for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:2097% → 98%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
97.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 9 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+2
97.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
97.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 8 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
97.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
97.4%
Nick Hill run for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 17
OWN 45
+15
97.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to AJ Troup for 15 yds to the JaxSt 40Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+15
97.5%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Troup, AJ, PENALTY JAXVILLEST pass interference (Hough, Jermaine) 15 yards to the JAXVILLEST25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
97.6%
Nick Hill run for 8 yds to the JaxSt 17Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+17
98.4%
Nick Hill run for 17 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:301% → 1%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.6%
Eli Jenkins run for no gain to the JaxSt 20Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.6%
Eli Jenkins run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 22Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+17
98.6%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Josh Barge for 17 yds to the JaxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
98.6%
Eli Jenkins run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 40Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-5
98.6%
Eli Jenkins sacked by Ed Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the JaxSt 35Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+5
98.7%
Eli Jenkins run for 5 yds to the JaxSt 40Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
98.8%
Hamish MacInnes punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 4:0699% → 99%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
98.7%
R.J. Shelton run for 2 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+10
98.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 10 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+43
98.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 43 yds to the JaxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
98.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 32Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
98.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 28Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
98.9%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 26Similar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+1
98.9%
Connor Cook run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
99.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Nick Hill for 9 yds to the JaxSt 16Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+8
99.0%
Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Lippett, Tony, PENALTY JAXVILLEST pass interference (Endress, Ben) 8 yards to the JAXVILLEST8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.3%
Nick Hill run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:531% → 0%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-9
99.4%
Eli Jenkins sacked by Demetrius Cooper for a loss of 9 yards to the JaxSt 1Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 19
OWN 1
0
99.6%
Eli Jenkins run for no gain to the JaxSt 1Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 19
OWN 1
0
99.6%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Josh BargeSimilar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 19
OWN 1
+11
99.6%
Hamish MacInnes punt for 44 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 11 yds to the JaxSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:0899% → 100%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
99.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to AJ Troup for 6 yds to the JaxSt 28Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+3
99.4%
Delton Williams run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 25Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
99.4%
Delton Williams run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
99.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Brian Allen) to the JaxSt 28Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+13
99.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 13 yds to the JaxSt 15Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+1
99.5%
Delton Williams run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 14Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 14
-4
99.5%
Delton Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the JaxSt 18Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
99.6%
Michael Geiger 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
99.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 1 yd to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Mike Sadler punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Josh Barge at the JaxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
99.6%
Max Shortell pass complete to Josh Barge for 10 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.6%
Max Shortell pass complete to Spencer Goffigan for 6 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+4
99.6%
Max Shortell pass complete to Josh Barge for 4 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
99.6%
Max Shortell pass complete to Josh Barge for 8 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 2
OPP 26
0
99.5%
Max Shortell pass incomplete to Josh BargeSimilar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+17
99.6%
DaMarcus James run for 17 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.6%
Max Shortell pass incomplete to Ruben GonzalezSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.6%
Max Shortell pass incomplete to Josh BargeSimilar
Q3 11:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.7%
Max Shortell pass complete to Markis Merrill for 9 yds for a TD, (Connor Rouleau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.7%
Aaron Burbridge run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
99.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 8 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.8%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Tres BarksdaleSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Mike Sadler punt for 33 yds, downed at the JaxSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
99.7%
Max Shortell pass complete to Ruben Gonzalez for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
50
0
99.7%
Max Shortell pass incomplete to Markis MerrillSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
50
0
99.7%
Max Shortell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 10
50
-8
99.7%
Max Shortell sacked by Darien Harris and Ed Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the JaxSt 42Similar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 18
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Hamish MacInnes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 5:18100% → 100%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
99.8%
R.J. Shelton run for 17 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.8%
Nick Hill run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
99.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to DeAnthony Arnett for 6 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+32
99.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 32 yds to the JaxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
99.8%
Nick Hill run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 21Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+15
99.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 9 yds to the JaxSt 12 for a 1ST down JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (6 Yards) to the JaxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.8%
Delton Williams run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 5Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.8%
Tyler O'Connor run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 3Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Tyler O'Connor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
99.9%
Max Shortell pass complete to Darrius Stephens for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.9%
Miles Jones run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Max Shortell pass complete to Dalton Screws for 5 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+23
99.9%
Max Shortell pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 23 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
99.9%
Max Shortell pass complete to Dalton Screws for 12 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Max Shortell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Max Shortell pass incomplete to Dalton ScrewsSimilar
Q3 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Max Shortell pass incomplete to Miles JonesSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
-23
99.9%
Max Shortell sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 23 yards to the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Damion Terry run for 2 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-2
99.9%
Damion Terry run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 38 Damion Terry fumbled, recovered by MchSt Damion TerrySimilar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Mike Sadler punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Josh Barge at the JaxSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
99.9%
Troymaine Pope run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 18Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-4
99.9%
Christian LeMay sacked by Montez Sweat and Riley Bullough for a loss of 4 yards to the JaxSt 14Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 13
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Christian LeMay pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 13
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Hamish MacInnes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+17
99.9%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. run for 17 yds to the JaxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 39Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to John JakubikSimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Matt MacksoodSimilar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Mike Sadler punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Josh Barge at the JaxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 24INT
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:500% → 0%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
99.9%
Christian LeMay run for 8 yds to the JaxSt 20Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Christian LeMay run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 21Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Troymaine Pope run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Christian LeMay pass incomplete to Ty AndersonSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
99.9%
JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, False Start (Ty Anderson) to the JaxSt 19Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+11
99.9%
Christian LeMay pass complete to JD Williams for 11 yds to the JaxSt 30Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+8
99.9%
Christian LeMay pass complete to JD Williams for 8 yds to the JaxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Christian LeMay pass complete to JD Williams for 4 yds to the JaxSt 42Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+18
99.9%
Christian LeMay run for 18 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Christian LeMay run for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.9%
JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, False Start (Ty Anderson) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Christian LeMay pass intercepted Nick Tompkins return for 2 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25END OF HALF
9 plays · 46 yds · 5:59100% → 100%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-7
99.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 17 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-8 Yards) to the MchSt 9Similar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 17
OWN 9
+9
99.9%
Damion Terry run for 9 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-3
99.9%
Damion Terry run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+15
99.9%
Damion Terry run for 15 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+13
100.0%
Damion Terry pass complete to Monty Madaris for 13 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
100.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the JaxSt 45Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
100.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
100.0%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 3:35
Connor Cook pass complete to AJ Troup for 17 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 12:43
Nick Hill run for 17 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 5:01
Nick Hill run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com