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MICH

Michigan 10 at Northwestern 9

NU
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:19 · Will Hagerup punt for 36 yds, downed at the Nwest 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Home team on offense−2.2Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7Pregame prior+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:49: De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK) — MICH win probability +16.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:25: Tony Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 20 — NU win probability +11.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:13: De'Veon Smith run for 11 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST down — MICH win probability +12.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:03: Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NU win probability +15.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:03: MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line — MICH win probability +16.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:05NU 4th & 6 at NU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:53MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:20NU 4th & 2 at MICH 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−0.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:10MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:25MICH 4th & 1 at NU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:20NU 4th & 7 at NU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:06MICH 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:47NU 4th & 26 at NU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:19MICH 4th & 3 at NU 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%−1.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:54NU 4th & 5 at NU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:21MICH 4th & 10 at NU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−5.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:15NU 4th & 2 at MICH 19, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%−1.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−9.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:08MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:26NU 4th & 4 at MICH 4, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%−3.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−17.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:10MICH 4th & 3 at NU 20, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.9%−1.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−15.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 6:49MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 0:03NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 7.8 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.8%−7.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:3453% → 54%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.2%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
53.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+19
53.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 19 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
53.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 5
50
+4
53.7%
Trevor Siemian run for 4 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-5
53.8%
Jackson, Justin rush for 10 yards to the MICHIGAN36, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN illegal formation 5 yards to the NORTHWSTRN49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
53.7%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
53.5%
Chris Gradone punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0347% → 46%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
53.5%
Drake Johnson run for 8 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+6
53.3%
Drake Johnson run for 6 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
53.3%
Devin Gardner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
53.4%
Drake Johnson run for 2 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
53.5%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
53.9%
Will Hagerup punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:2454% → 54%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.8%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
53.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Kyle PraterSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
53.6%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 11 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
53.9%
Matt Alviti run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+14
54.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 14 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
54.6%
Treyvon Green run for 2 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
54.7%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+1
54.7%
Matt Alviti run for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+1
54.4%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Mich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0347% → 46%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
53.2%
Drake Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-6
53.1%
Devin Funchess run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 41Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+5
54.0%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 5 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
54.2%
Will Hagerup punt for 30 yds, downed at the Nwest 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:3254% → 56%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
54.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+1
54.4%
Trevor Siemian run for 1 yd to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+16
53.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 16 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
55.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+7
55.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 7 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+2
55.5%
Trevor Siemian pass intercepted Jake Ryan return for 2 yds to the Mich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:5848% → 47%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
52.5%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 16 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
52.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 12 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
51.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+2
51.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
52.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Nwest 16Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
52.9%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5255% → 54%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
55.0%
Warren Long run for no gain to the Nwest 16Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+3
54.9%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
54.2%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
53.7%
Chris Gradone punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Amara Darboh at the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0247% → 46%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
53.5%
Devin Gardner run for 6 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
52.5%
Drake Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+7
52.5%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Joe Kerridge for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
50
0
51.9%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
50
0
52.3%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 10
50
0
53.1%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin Funchess MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Devin Funchess) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 10
50
0
54.5%
Will Hagerup punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tony Jones at the Nwest 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:1355% → 55%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
55.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 8 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+7
55.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Mike McHugh for 7 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
55.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 6 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+7
56.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 7 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-9
57.1%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Mario Ojemudia for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 19
OWN 31
0
55.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 19
OWN 31
-7
55.7%
Matt Alviti sacked by Frank Clark for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 26
OWN 24
0
55.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 20 yds, downed at the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1949% → 48%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
50.8%
Drake Johnson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+7
50.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 7 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-5
50.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Mason Cole) to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+4
51.0%
Devin Gardner run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
52.2%
Will Hagerup punt for 36 yds, downed at the Nwest 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1457% → 55%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
56.7%
Trevor Siemian run for 3 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+2
56.7%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
55.7%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+9
54.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 34 yds , Amara Darboh returns for 9 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:0451% → 52%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
49.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 8 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+3
49.2%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 3 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
48.4%
Devin Gardner pass intercepted Matthew Harris return for 3 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:3857% → 59%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
56.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 9 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+4
57.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 4 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
57.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Treyvon Green for 6 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
58.7%
Trevor Siemian pass intercepted Matthew Godin return for no gain to the Nwest 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:2352% → 49%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
48.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 11 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
48.3%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Freddy CanteenSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
48.4%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Freddy Canteen MICHIGAN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Devin Funchess) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
49.5%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+41
51.2%
Matt Wile 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nick VanHooseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
56.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3248% → 47%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.4%
Drake Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
52.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 7 yds to the Mich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17MISSED FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1961% → 57%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
60.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
60.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 5 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+3
59.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 3 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+36
57.4%
Jack Mitchell 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4747% → 45%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
52.8%
Devin Gardner run for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 13Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+7
53.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 7 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+3
54.5%
Devin Gardner run for 3 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+26
55.3%
Will Hagerup punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tony Jones at the NORTHWSTRN 41 MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19DOWNS
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:5560% → 60%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
59.9%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
60.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 3 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
59.8%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4449% → 49%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
50.6%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
51.3%
Drake Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
50.8%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:2753% → 69%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
47.3%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 18 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:1437% → 35%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
36.9%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-9
36.7%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Mario Ojemudia for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 14Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 17
OWN 14
0
34.8%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23INT
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:3369% → 70%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
30.6%
Drake Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+12
30.0%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 12 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
3 plays · -28 yds · 1:0042% → 37%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
41.7%
Tony Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 15
OPP 20
-2
40.4%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Brennen Beyer for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 22Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 17
OPP 22
-21
36.7%
Trevor Siemian sacked by TEAM for a loss of 21 yards to the Mich 43 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Trevor Siemian) to the Mich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 44 yds · 2:5569% → 76%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
31.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 9 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
29.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+29
26.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 34 yds to the NORTHWSTRN 35 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Sideline Interference (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+6
25.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
24.5%
Devin Gardner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26FG
19 plays · 95 yds · 6:2430% → 40%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
29.9%
Trevor Siemian run for 2 yds to the Nwest 3Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
29.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+14
27.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 14 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
29.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 19 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
31.2%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+9
33.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 9 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
34.6%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Kyle PraterSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
33.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Austin Carr for 9 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
34.3%
Trevor Siemian run for 4 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
34.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 6 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
34.3%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+5
31.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 5 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-11
34.5%
Trevor Siemian sacked by Willie Henry for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 21
OPP 35
+17
31.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 17 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+8
31.7%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 8 yds to the Mich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
33.5%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Kyle PraterSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
33.4%
Trevor Siemian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
30.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Justin Jackson for 6 yds to the Mich 4Similar
Q4 7:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
40.0%
Jack Mitchell 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 27FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 4:0372% → 90%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
27.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 11 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
25.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+16
23.3%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 16 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
21.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+14
19.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 14 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+6
16.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-1
16.0%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 20Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
10.4%
Matt Wile 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 2:5220% → 24%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
20.3%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 7 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
20.9%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Kyle Prater for 6 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
20.4%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
21.1%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 13 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
21.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Dan Vitale for 8 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+1
22.9%
Trevor Siemian run for 1 yd to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
22.9%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
20.8%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 8 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
26.3%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+6
23.3%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+15
21.3%
Siemian, Trevor pass incomplete to Dickerson, Cameron, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference 15 yards to the MICHIGAN7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
23.5%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Mich 3Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
24.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Mich 3Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
40.5%
Trevor Siemian pass complete to Tony Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 3
OWN 3
+15
23.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-23.7
TD · Q4 0:03
MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line
-16.7
TD · Q3 6:49
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)
-16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com