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MICH

Michigan 11 at Michigan State 35

MSU
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.1MSU 80.1%Matt Wile 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q2 3:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:30 · Matt Wile 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Pregame prior+22.2Home team on offense+1.6Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Blowout margin+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 3:30: Matt Wile 48 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +2.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:21: Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:33: Devin Gardner pass intercepted for a TD RJ Williamson return for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:17: Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 70 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:40: De'Veon Smith 1 Yd Run (Devin Gardner Pass to Jake Butt for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +1.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 9:51MICH 4th & 4 at MSU 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:08MSU 4th & 18 at MICH 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:22MICH 4th & 19 at MICH 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−1.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:46MSU 4th & 7 at MICH 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:03MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:30MICH 4th & 10 at MSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:08MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:05MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:28MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 43, down 18
    Close callPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:38MICH 4th & 5 at MSU 10, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:45MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 20, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:15MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 35, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:01MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 26, down 25
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:52MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:21MSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:33MSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:17MSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:40MICH Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.4%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:28MSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0886% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
86.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 24 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
86.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
85.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+28
85.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 28 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
85.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+15
85.6%
Connor Cook run for 13 yds to the Mich 4 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Delano Hill) to the Mich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0114% → 15%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
85.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 11 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
85.6%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Dennis Norfleet for 5 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
85.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
85.4%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+7
85.5%
Will Hagerup punt for 41 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 7 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5786% → 85%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
85.7%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 11Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 13
OWN 11
0
85.6%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 13
OWN 11
+9
85.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 9 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 4
OWN 20
-5
85.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Kurtis Drummond) to the MchSt 15Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+14
85.2%
Mike Sadler punt for 29 yds MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Frey) to the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-9
84.8%
Devin Gardner run for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 38 Devin Gardner fumbled, recovered by MchSt Lawrence ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5MISSED FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 6:3986% → 84%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
85.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+9
85.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 9 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
85.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 8 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+7
85.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
85.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 10 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
85.7%
Nick Hill run for 4 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+5
85.7%
R.J. Shelton run for 5 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+4
85.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
85.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
85.6%
Connor Cook run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 10Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-8
85.1%
Connor Cook sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 1:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+36
84.2%
Michael Geiger 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 5:4616% → 16%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
84.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Dennis Norfleet for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 16Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 14
OWN 16
-5
84.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (NA) to the Mich 11Similar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+4
84.3%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Justice Hayes for 4 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+24
84.6%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 24 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
83.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
83.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+7
83.2%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 7 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
82.8%
Devin Gardner sacked by Taiwan Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+4
83.6%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 14
50
-5
83.6%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Justice Hayes for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 19
OWN 45
0
84.1%
Will Hagerup punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:3684% → 84%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
83.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Maurice Hurst Jr.) to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+9
84.1%
Nick Hill run for 9 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
84.0%
Nick Hill run for 4 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+25
84.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 25 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
84.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-1
84.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 11
OPP 38
-5
84.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Kodi Kieler) to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+9
83.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Nick Hill for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
83.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4317% → 16%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
82.7%
Devin Gardner sacked by Shilique Calhoun for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+2
83.4%
Justice Hayes run for 2 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 13
OWN 31
0
83.7%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
83.9%
Will Hagerup punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:4583% → 83%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
83.4%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
83.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 14 yds Josiah Price fumbled, forced by Jarrod Wilson, recovered by Mich Delano Hill , return for 2 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4820% → 20%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
80.2%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
80.2%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
82.3%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
80.1%
Matt Wile 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:0980% → 88%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
80.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 24 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
81.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 9 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+2
81.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
81.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
81.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to AJ Troup for 13 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
81.8%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jeremy Langford for 18 yds to the Mich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
81.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds to the Mich 1Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.8%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the Mich 1Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.4%
Justice Hayes run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4213% → 13%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
86.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
86.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 5 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.2%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
86.3%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 6 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
85.9%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+6
86.9%
Will Hagerup punt for 35 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 6 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0387% → 87%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
87.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
87.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
88.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
88.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
87.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Keith MumpherySimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
86.8%
Mike Sadler punt for 36 yds, downed at the Mich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15INT TD
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:3213% → 6%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
86.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Dennis Norfleet for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 21Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
87.0%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+29
94.2%
Devin Gardner pass intercepted for a TD RJ Williamson return for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:056% → 6%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 12 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.7%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-7
93.9%
Justice Hayes run for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+13
94.6%
Justice Hayes run for 13 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
94.2%
Will Hagerup punt for 27 yds, downed at the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
99.0%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 70 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:392% → 1%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
98.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Malik McDowell) to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
98.0%
Gardner, Devin pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGANST roughing passer (Jones, Taiwan) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
98.0%
Gardner, Devin pass incomplete to Funchess, Devin, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Waynes, Trae) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
97.7%
Justice Hayes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+5
98.1%
Justice Hayes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
98.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
98.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
98.5%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+4
99.0%
Devin Gardner run for 4 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5399% → 99%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
99.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+5
99.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. run for no gain to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Connor Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Mike Sadler punt for 39 yds , Dennis Norfleet returns for no gain to the Mich 41 Dennis Norfleet fumbled, recovered by Mich Dennis NorfleetSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20INT
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:541% → 1%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
99.5%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 16 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
99.3%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+17
99.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 17 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.3%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Freddy CanteenSimilar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
99.3%
Devin Gardner pass intercepted Taiwan Jones return for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.6%
Delton Williams run for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.6%
Delton Williams run for 6 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
99.6%
Delton Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-10
99.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jack Conklin) to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Keith MumpherySimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Mike Sadler punt for 46 yds , Dennis Norfleet returns for no gain to the Mich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
99.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Justice Hayes for 8 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 2
OWN 27
-1
99.7%
Justice Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 26Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to A.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 3
OWN 26
-11
99.8%
Will Hagerup punt for 46 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for a loss of 11 yards to the MchSt 15 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Macgarrett Kings Jr.) to the MchSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 24 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
99.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+7
99.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+6
99.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
99.8%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 33 Jeremy Langford fumbled, recovered by Mich Frank ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:440% → 2%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Dennis NorfleetSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+24
99.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 24 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.8%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Justice HayesSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
99.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Freddy Canteen for 8 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.9%
De'Veon Smith 1 Yd Run (Devin Gardner Pass to Jake Butt for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:1299% → 100%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.6%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
98.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 8 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
98.7%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+27
98.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 27 yds to the Mich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the Mich 8Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.7%
Jeremy Langford 5 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+15
99.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Matthew Godin) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:200% → 0%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
Drake Johnson run for 6 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
99.6%
Drake Johnson run for 7 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:33
Devin Gardner pass intercepted for a TD RJ Williamson return for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q2 0:21
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q3 6:17
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 70 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com