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PSU

Penn State 13 at Michigan 18

MICH
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGFGFGSAFETYEnd of GameFG-3MICH 49.7%Sam Ficken 32 Yd Field GoalAWAY 6 - HOME 7 · Q1 0:52
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Q1 0:52 · Sam Ficken 32 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense−0.3Pregame prior−3.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:58: DaeSean Hamilton 10 Yd pass from Christian Hackenberg (Sam Ficken Kick) — PSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:08: Matt Wile 45 Yd Field Goal — MICH win probability +4.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q3 2:30: Matt Wile 42 Yd Field Goal — MICH win probability +6.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:24: Matt Wile 37 Yd Field Goal — MICH win probability +8.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. SAFETY · Q4 1:41: TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards for a SAFETY — MICH win probability +6.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 0:52PSU 4th & 2 at MICH 15, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%−0.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−3.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 5:08MICH 4th & 2 at PSU 28, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%−1.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−6.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:27PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:46MICH 4th & 14 at MICH 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−3.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:01PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.8%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:49MICH 4th & 15 at MICH 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:16PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−2.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:58MICH 4th & 3 at PSU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%−2.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:56PSU 4th & 11 at MICH 37, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:56MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 48, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:30MICH 4th & 7 at PSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−11.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:45PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−4.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:18MICH 4th & 9 at PSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%−2.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:39PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−3.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:24MICH 4th & 5 at PSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−16.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:04PSU 4th & 9 at MICH 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:44MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:37MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:58PSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:1854% → 53%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
45.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
45.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 2 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+31
45.9%
Bill Belton run for 31 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
45.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
46.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+13
46.1%
Bill Belton run for 13 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+2
46.1%
Zach Zwinak run for 2 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
46.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 10 yds to the Mich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
46.1%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 11Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
46.2%
Bill Belton pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-7
46.7%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Ben Gedeon for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+35
46.8%
Sam Ficken 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3847% → 50%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.7%
Dennis Norfleet run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
46.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 4 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
46.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 14 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
47.6%
Devin Gardner pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 8 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+3
48.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
50.2%
Devin Funchess 43 Yd pass from Devin Gardner (Matt Wile Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:3350% → 50%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
49.8%
Bill Belton run for 9 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
49.5%
Bill Belton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
49.9%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+6
50.6%
Bill Belton run for 6 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+11
50.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 11 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
50.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 13 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
50.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 13 yds to the Mich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
49.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 3 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+2
49.5%
Zach Zwinak run for 2 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+3
50.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 3 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
49.7%
Sam Ficken 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4INT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:3751% → 52%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
51.4%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 26Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 13
OWN 26
0
51.3%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to De'Veon SmithSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+21
50.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 21 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
52.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kyle Kalis) to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 20
OWN 37
0
51.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for no gain to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 20
OWN 37
+5
51.9%
Devin Gardner pass intercepted Anthony Zettel return for 5 yds to the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:5551% → 58%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
48.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 20 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
48.7%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the Mich 8Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
48.9%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Mario Ojemudia and Brennen Beyer for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 10Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
42.1%
DaeSean Hamilton 10 Yd pass from Christian Hackenberg (Sam Ficken Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 6:3245% → 49%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
45.1%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 7 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
46.1%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Mich 31Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+3
44.8%
Devin Gardner run for 3 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
44.9%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 11 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
46.1%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
45.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Kyle Kalis) to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+4
43.8%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+20
43.5%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 20 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
45.9%
Devin Gardner sacked by Tarow Barney for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+1
45.8%
Devin Gardner run for 1 yd to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+8
45.3%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 8 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+45
48.6%
Matt Wile 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:2753% → 51%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
46.9%
DaeSean Hamilton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 21Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
47.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 8 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
45.8%
Christian Hackenberg run for 2 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
45.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-3
46.5%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Brennen Beyer for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 13
OWN 28
0
47.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
48.6%
Chris Gulla punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dennis Norfleet at the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:1447% → 44%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
46.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 2 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
47.1%
Devin Gardner run for no gain to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-6
44.9%
Devin Gardner sacked by Deion Barnes for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
44.3%
Will Hagerup punt for 38 yds, downed at the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4155% → 57%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
44.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 8 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
42.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
42.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 1 yd to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 1
OWN 39
-3
43.4%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Brennen Beyer for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0746% → 43%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.9%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.1%
Devin Gardner run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
43.8%
Devin Gardner sacked by Mike Hull for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 13:49
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
43.1%
Will Hagerup punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:2758% → 55%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
41.8%
Bill Belton run for 4 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
41.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-5
42.3%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Donovan Smith) to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
44.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
45.5%
Chris Gulla punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dennis Norfleet at the Mich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:1045% → 47%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+25
45.1%
Devin Gardner run for 25 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
47.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 13 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
49.0%
Devin Gardner run for 1 yd to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+6
48.9%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 6 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
48.5%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Freddy CanteenSimilar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
46.7%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:5758% → 57%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
42.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 2 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
42.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 6 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
40.8%
Zach Zwinak run for 3 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
40.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 7 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+8
39.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 8 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
39.7%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 37Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
39.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
0
40.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 11
OPP 37
-2
43.3%
Grant Haley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3147% → 47%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
46.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
48.1%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 7 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
47.9%
Devin Gardner run for no gain to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
46.7%
Will Hagerup punt for 46 yds, downed at the PnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:4557% → 58%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+16
43.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 16 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
41.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
41.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+4
41.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted Jourdan Lewis return for 4 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0451% → 56%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
50.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
51.5%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
48.9%
Russell Bellomy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
55.6%
Matt Wile 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3150% → 46%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
50.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 13
OWN 20
0
51.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 13
OWN 20
0
52.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 13
OWN 20
0
53.9%
Chris Gulla punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2359% → 54%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
59.3%
Russell Bellomy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-4
59.1%
Justice Hayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 14
50
+5
54.5%
Justice Hayes run for 5 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
54.0%
Will Hagerup punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2150% → 46%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
50.5%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
51.1%
Christian Hackenberg run for no gain to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
52.8%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 13:39
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
54.4%
Chris Gulla punt for 29 yds, downed at the PnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:1060% → 69%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
60.0%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+24
59.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Dennis Norfleet for 24 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
61.9%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
62.1%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 4 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
60.3%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
68.7%
Matt Wile 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:5635% → 34%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
61.4%
Bill Belton run for 7 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
62.3%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
60.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 5 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
60.4%
Christian Hackenberg run for 3 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
61.1%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the Mich 49Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
62.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for no gain to the Mich 49Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+1
65.2%
Christian Hackenberg run for 1 yd to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
66.1%
Chris Gulla punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dennis Norfleet at the Mich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5772% → 79%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
72.1%
Justice Hayes run for 5 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+4
73.7%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+7
73.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 7 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
74.9%
Justice Hayes run for no gain to the Mich 30Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
77.6%
Justice Hayes run for 6 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
80.4%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+4
79.3%
Will Hagerup punt for 52 yds , Grant Haley returns for 4 yds to the PnSt 40 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the PnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23SF
8 plays · -8 yds · 1:5428% → 12%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
71.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 17 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.4%
Bill Belton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-12
73.3%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Jake Ryan for a loss of 12 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-13
77.8%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Frank Clark for a loss of 13 yards to the PnSt 3Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 32
OWN 3
-3
89.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 32
OWN 20
-5
88.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:3096% → 97%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
95.5%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the PnSt 26Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
95.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 7 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
96.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 11:24
Matt Wile 37 Yd Field Goal
+8.4
TD · Q2 11:58
DaeSean Hamilton 10 Yd pass from Christian Hackenberg (Sam Ficken Kick)
-6.8
FG · Q3 2:30
Matt Wile 42 Yd Field Goal
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com