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MINN

Minnesota 30 at Michigan 14

MICH
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:38 · Will Hagerup punt for 54 yds , Craig James returns for 32 yds to the Mich 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense−35.4Pregame prior+8.1Score differential−19.9Garbage-time factor−11.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:10: De'Veon Smith run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK) — MICH win probability +4.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:00: Mitch Leidner run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +7.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:42: Shane Morris pass intercepted for a TD De'Vondre Campbell return for 30 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +16.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:52: Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +13.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:27: Devin Gardner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK) — MICH win probability +6.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:45MINN 4th & 2 at MICH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04MINN 4th & 23 at MICH 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:40MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:04MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:36MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:06MINN 4th & 19 at MINN 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:47MICH 4th & 6 at MINN 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:13MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:17MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:41MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 20, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:44MINN 4th & 10 at MICH 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:47MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−2.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:56MINN 4th & 16 at MICH 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−3.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:38MICH 4th & 12 at MICH 23, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−3.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:50MINN 4th & 2 at MICH 8, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.2%−0.9
    90% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−5.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:35MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 42, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:03MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 5, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 11:10MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:00MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:42MINN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:52MINN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:27MICH Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1DOWNS
14 plays · 34 yds · 4:2622% → 23%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.7%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+34
77.7%
David Cobb run for 34 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
77.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Berkley Edwards for 1 yd to the Mich 40Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+1
77.2%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+6
77.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to David Cobb for 6 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+5
77.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Miles Thomas for 5 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
76.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Miles ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-3
76.6%
David Cobb run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 13
OPP 31
-5
76.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 36Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 18
OPP 36
0
76.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Berkley EdwardsSimilar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 18
OPP 36
-5
76.8%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Mich 41Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 23
OPP 41
0
76.8%
Peter Mortell punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0577% → 76%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
76.7%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
76.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Devin Funchess for 4 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
76.5%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
76.1%
Will Hagerup punt for 46 yds, downed at the Minn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0624% → 25%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
76.2%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+7
75.8%
David Cobb run for 7 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
75.4%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 41Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
75.3%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
75.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Isaac Fruechte, broken up by Blake CountessSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
75.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dennis Norfleet at the Mich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0976% → 75%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
75.6%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the Mich 9Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+1
75.4%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the Mich 10Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
75.1%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 7
OWN 10
-4
74.8%
Will Hagerup punt for 50 yds , Craig James returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 36 Craig James fumbled, recovered by Minn Craig JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:2325% → 25%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
74.8%
David Cobb run for 10 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
74.1%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-2
73.8%
David Cobb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 47Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-10
73.8%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Taco Charlton and Frank Clark for a loss of 10 yards to the Minn 37Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 19
OWN 37
0
74.7%
Peter Mortell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dennis Norfleet at the Mich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:4875% → 75%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
74.9%
Shane Morris run for no gain to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+29
74.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Devin Funchess for 14 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Robert Ndondo-Lay) to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
75.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-2
75.8%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 45Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
75.5%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+55
74.8%
Will Hagerup punt for 45 yds for a touchback MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0727% → 26%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
73.4%
David Cobb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 8Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+4
73.6%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
73.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
73.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dennis Norfleet at the Minn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:4575% → 80%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
75.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+28
75.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 28 yds to the Minn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
75.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
80.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:5622% → 32%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
78.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn Jones, broken up by Raymon TaylorSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+33
78.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to David Cobb for 33 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
76.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 8 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+12
76.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 12 yds to the Mich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
76.2%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Mich 18Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+8
76.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 8 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
68.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 5:1373% → 70%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
72.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Devin Funchess for 7 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 21
-1
72.8%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 20Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+7
71.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jake Butt for 7 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
72.3%
Shane Morris run for 2 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+5
72.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+6
71.9%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jake Butt for 6 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
73.0%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
73.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+3
71.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Justice Hayes for 3 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
70.1%
Will Hagerup punt for 53 yds, downed at the Minn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11END OF HALF
15 plays · 92 yds · 1:5033% → 44%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
67.0%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 2Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+4
67.2%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 6Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+21
67.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Lincoln Plsek for 21 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
65.6%
David Cobb run for 14 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
63.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Lincoln PlsekSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
64.1%
David Cobb run for 8 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+10
63.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 10 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
62.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+11
61.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to David Cobb for 11 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
60.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
56.5%
Ryan Santoso 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4962% → 60%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
62.4%
Derrick Green run for no gain to the Mich 12Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
62.1%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Amara Darboh, broken up by Briean Boddy-CalhounSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+8
60.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Justice Hayes for 8 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+23
60.1%
Will Hagerup punt for 42 yds , Craig James returns for 23 yds to the Mich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5242% → 39%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
58.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
58.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ Maye, broken up by Blake CountessSimilar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
58.7%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Mich 39Similar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
60.7%
Peter Mortell punt for 32 yds, downed at the Mich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4360% → 57%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-5
60.4%
Shane Morris run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 2 Shane Morris fumbled, forced by Gaelin Elmore, recovered by Mich Shane MorrisSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 15
OWN 2
+2
59.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 4Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 13
OWN 4
+3
58.0%
Justice Hayes run for 3 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 10
OWN 7
+15
57.1%
Will Hagerup punt for 47 yds , Craig James returns for 15 yds to the Mich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15FG
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:3644% → 51%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
56.4%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
54.3%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+11
54.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 11 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
51.9%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
52.0%
Donnell Kirkwood run for no gain to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-5
53.0%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Mario Ojemudia for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 16
OPP 31
+48
48.9%
Ryan Santoso 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0951% → 35%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jake Butt, broken up by Damarius TravisSimilar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+30
34.8%
Shane Morris pass intercepted for a TD De'Vondre Campbell return for 30 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1435% → 29%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
34.9%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Cameron Botticelli) to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
32.4%
Devin Funchess run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
31.0%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-5
29.4%
Shane Morris run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 30 Shane Morris fumbled, recovered by Minn Theiren CockranSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:5878% → 95%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
22.5%
Donovahn Jones run for 13 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
21.7%
David Cobb run for 6 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+7
20.0%
Rodrick Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the Mich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
19.3%
Rodrick Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mich 1Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:108% → 7%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
8.1%
Derrick Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
7.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Devin Funchess, broken up by Jalen MyrickSimilar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+32
7.3%
Will Hagerup punt for 54 yds , Craig James returns for 32 yds to the Mich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 3:2195% → 97%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
5.0%
Berkley Edwards run for no gain to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
4.7%
Berkley Edwards run for 3 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+26
4.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 26 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
4.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
4.1%
Rodrick Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-1
3.9%
Rodrick Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 8Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
3.2%
Ryan Santoso 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
16 plays · 74 yds · 5:034% → 9%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
3.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 16Similar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+4
3.5%
Justice Hayes run for 4 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 16
OWN 20
0
3.2%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+15
3.2%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Theiren Cockran) to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
3.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Devin Funchess, broken up by Damarius TravisSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
3.2%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 9 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
3.4%
Devin Gardner run for 2 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
3.2%
Devin Gardner run for 11 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
3.3%
Justice Hayes run for 3 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+18
3.3%
Devin Gardner run for 18 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-11
3.2%
Devin Gardner sacked by Cameron Botticelli for a loss of 11 yards to the Minn 33Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 21
OPP 33
+18
2.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 18 yds to the Minn 15Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+12
2.6%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 12 yds to the Minn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
9.0%
Devin Gardner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22FUMBLE
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4095% → 98%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
4.8%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
4.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 14 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
3.8%
David Cobb run for 9 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
3.1%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-7
2.2%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Joe Bolden for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 42 MINNESOTA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Mitch Leidner) to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 8
OWN 42
-3
2.3%
Peter Mortell punt for 50 yds , Dennis Norfleet returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 5 Dennis Norfleet fumbled, recovered by Mich Justice HayesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:244% → 3%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
3.8%
Devin Gardner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
3.5%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara Darboh, broken up by Briean Boddy-CalhounSimilar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 10
OWN 5
0
3.5%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 10
OWN 5
0
3.4%
Will Hagerup punt for 63 yds, downed at the Minn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 52 yds · 3:5098% → 99%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+24
1.9%
David Cobb run for 24 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
1.4%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+11
1.3%
David Cobb run for 11 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
0.9%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+15
0.8%
David Cobb run for 15 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:42
Shane Morris pass intercepted for a TD De'Vondre Campbell return for 30 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
-16
TD · Q3 2:52
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q2 8:00
Mitch Leidner run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
-7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com