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MD

Maryland 23 at Michigan 16

MICH
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:25 · Joe Kerridge run for 52 yds to the Mary 8 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+9.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 3:32: Brad Craddock 41 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +4.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Matt Wile 26 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +6.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:25: Devin Gardner run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK) — MICH win probability +11.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:47: C.J. Brown run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +30.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:59: Wes Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +29.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00MD 4th & 3 at MD 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:25MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 40, tied
    Close callWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:35MICH 4th & 5 at MD 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:35MD 4th & 14 at MD 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:34MICH 4th & 7 at MD 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:42MD 4th & 6 at MD 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:45MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 28, up 3
    Close callPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:39MD 4th & 1 at MICH 19, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%−1.0
    77% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:32MD 4th & 1 at MICH 23, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%−1.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−7.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:50MD 4th & 4 at MICH 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:25MD 4th & 20 at MD 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−3.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:13MICH 4th & 6 at MD 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    77.0%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:13MICH 4th & 5 at MD 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−18.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:59MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.2%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 10:25MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:47MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:59MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.2%
Wes Brown run for 3 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
59.2%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
59.2%
C.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+8
59.2%
Nathan Renfro punt for 40 yds , Dennis Norfleet returns for 8 yds to the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:5059% → 60%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
59.4%
Devin Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+7
59.3%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 7 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
59.4%
Justice Hayes run for 3 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
59.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (De'Veon Smith) to the Mich 40Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+52
59.2%
Joe Kerridge run for 52 yds to the Mary 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
59.6%
Drake Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 7Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
59.6%
Devin Gardner run for 2 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
59.5%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Freddy CanteenSimilar
Q1 9:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
60.2%
Matt Wile 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
59.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 14 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
59.6%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 7 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
59.5%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-11
59.5%
C.J. Brown sacked by Taco Charlton for a loss of 11 yards to the Mary 35Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
60.3%
Nathan Renfro punt for 43 yds, downed at the Mich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
60.0%
Justice Hayes run for 7 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+13
60.3%
Justice Hayes run for 13 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
60.5%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
60.3%
Devin Gardner run for 4 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+7
60.3%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 7 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
60.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 49Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+5
60.4%
Justice Hayes run for 5 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
60.6%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
60.0%
Will Hagerup punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
60.9%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+30
61.0%
C.J. Brown run for 30 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
60.1%
Brandon Ross run for 4 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
59.8%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
60.1%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Brandon Ross, broken up by Mario OjemudiaSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
60.8%
Nathan Renfro punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dennis Norfleet at the Mich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
60.3%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Freddy Canteen, broken up by William LikelySimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
60.2%
Drake Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+5
59.7%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 5 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+28
59.5%
Will Hagerup punt for 49 yds , William Likely returns for 28 yds to the Mich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7FG
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:3641% → 43%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
59.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 21 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
58.5%
Jacquille Veii run for 3 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+5
58.5%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 5 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
58.5%
C.J. Brown run for 1 yd to the Mich 19Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+38
56.8%
Brad Craddock 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 5:5859% → 62%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
59.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 10 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
60.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+9
60.5%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 9 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
61.0%
Devin Gardner run for 24 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
61.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
61.4%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+15
60.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive pass interference (William Likely) to the Mary 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
61.4%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Mary 5Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
61.4%
Devin Gardner run for no gain to the Mary 5Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-11
60.8%
Devin Gardner sacked by Anthony Nixon and Yannick Ngakoue for a loss of 11 yards to the Mary 16Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
62.2%
Matt Wile 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:0940% → 47%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
60.3%
Jacquille Veii run for 2 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
60.2%
Jacquille Veii run for no gain to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
61.0%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 15 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
58.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for 17 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
57.1%
C.J. Brown run for 7 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+2
56.8%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
57.8%
C.J. Brown run for no gain to the Mich 23Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+41
53.4%
Brad Craddock 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.9%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 4 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+29
59.1%
Devin Gardner pass intercepted William Likely return for 29 yds to the Mich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5950% → 52%
Q2 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
50.4%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Kenneth Goins Jr.Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
50.4%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Jake Wheeler) to the Mich 13Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+9
50.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 9 yds to the Mich 4Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
51.5%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
48.4%
Brad Craddock 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12FG
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:5051% → 63%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
51.2%
Drake Johnson run for 17 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
51.7%
Drake Johnson run for 8 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+9
54.2%
Drake Johnson run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
50
+10
54.7%
Drake Johnson run for 10 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
55.1%
Drake Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+4
56.3%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 4 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+5
54.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive offside (Matt Robinson) to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
56.3%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Jake Butt for 17 yds to the Mary 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
62.7%
Matt Wile 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:3560% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
59.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
61.4%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin Funchess, broken up by Darius KilgoSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+7
59.5%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Devin Funchess for 7 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
61.7%
Devin Gardner run for 22 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
63.1%
Devin Gardner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 35 Devin Gardner fumbled, recovered by Mich Devin GardnerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+11
62.6%
Justice Hayes run for 11 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
62.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mary 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
63.1%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
63.1%
Devin Gardner run for 6 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
74.1%
Devin Gardner run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:0030% → 27%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
70.3%
C.J. Brown run for 7 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+6
68.6%
C.J. Brown run for 6 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
69.0%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd to the Mary 46Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
69.4%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-5
70.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Silvano Altamirano) to the Mary 41Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 14
OWN 41
-6
71.5%
C.J. Brown sacked by Matthew Godin for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 20
OWN 35
+9
72.8%
Nathan Renfro punt for 34 yds , Dennis Norfleet returns for 9 yds to the Mich 44 MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:2176% → 77%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
76.1%
Drake Johnson run for 8 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
78.0%
Drake Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
77.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to A.J. Williams for 12 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
78.3%
Drake Johnson run for 4 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+7
78.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Joe Kerridge for 7 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
78.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-1
78.8%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
77.7%
Devin Gardner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 6
OPP 32
0
76.7%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 3:2228% → 55%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
71.8%
C.J. Brown run for 6 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-3
69.9%
C.J. Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+11
72.8%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Marcus Leak for 11 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
69.8%
C.J. Brown run for 11 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
69.0%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Marcus Leak for 10 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
67.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 5 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+13
66.4%
C.J. Brown run for 13 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
68.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Derrick Hayward for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 17Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
68.9%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 17
0
71.4%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+9
74.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, roughing the kicker (Jourdan Lewis) to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
44.9%
C.J. Brown run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 5:3457% → 59%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.2%
Drake Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
58.0%
Devin Gardner run for 10 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
60.4%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 23 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
62.6%
Drake Johnson run for 5 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-1
63.7%
Drake Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+6
61.8%
Devin Gardner pass complete to Amara Darboh for 6 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
63.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-8
63.7%
Devin Gardner sacked by Andre Monroe for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 16
OPP 33
+11
59.0%
Devin Gardner run for 11 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
58.6%
Matt Wile 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:1449% → 87%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
51.3%
C.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
50.6%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+6
52.8%
C.J. Brown run for 6 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
49.7%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
51.0%
Brandon Ross run for 10 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
47.3%
C.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+17
47.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 17 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+36
45.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 36 yds to the Mich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
42.2%
C.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the Mich 1Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.8%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0022% → 24%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
21.6%
Drake Johnson run for 17 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
25.1%
Justice Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
22.1%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin FunchessSimilar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+10
21.2%
Devin Gardner run for 10 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
23.8%
Devin Gardner pass incomplete to Devin Funchess, broken up by Jeremiah JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20END OF GAME
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:2989% → 96%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
10.7%
Wes Brown run for 7 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
10.2%
Wes Brown run for 6 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
10.5%
Wes Brown run for 9 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+2
10.0%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
10.0%
Wes Brown run for 6 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+1
10.0%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd to the Mich 18Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+1
4.3%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd to the Mich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:47
C.J. Brown run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)
-30
TD · Q4 5:59
Wes Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)
-29.5
TD · Q3 10:25
Devin Gardner run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Wile KICK)
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com