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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreWIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:10 · Jake Rudock run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:05: Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +8.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:45: Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 20 yds for a TD, (J. Canzeri Run For Two-point Conversion) — IOWA win probability +11.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:10: Jake Rudock run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — IOWA win probability +26.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 7:44: Melvin Gordon run for 23 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +19.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:01: Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 9 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +34.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
- Q1 11:52WIS 4th & 14 at IOWA 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.5% before the snapGo for it68.4%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call68.5%51% to makePunt68.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:01IOWA 4th & 3 at WIS 8, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snapGo for it34.1%47% to convertField goalTheir call33.9%−0.290% to makePunt32.2%−1.9average punt
- Q1 1:49WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snapGo for it64.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.1%average punt
- Q2 14:50IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 41, tiedClose callPunted · 36.7% before the snapGo for it36.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:40IOWA 4th & 15 at IOWA 31, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snapGo for it30.0%−1.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.7%average punt
- Q2 0:01IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 48, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt23.7%−0.6average punt
- Q3 11:46WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 47, up 13Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 80.4% before the snapGo for it80.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.6%−2.3average punt
- Q3 8:20IOWA 4th & 9 at WIS 39, down 13Close callPunted · 21.2% before the snapGo for it21.3%32% to convertField goal20.9%−0.336% to makePuntTheir call21.0%−0.2average punt
- Q3 5:33WIS 4th & 4 at IOWA 4, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snapGo for it85.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call84.6%−0.793% to makePunt76.7%−8.5average punt
- Q3 4:18IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 39, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.8%−1.8average punt
- Q4 13:54WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 45, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 80.1% before the snapGo for it80.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.6%−2.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 11:02WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call68.0%97% to makeGo for two67.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:05WIS Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.4%97% to makeGo for two77.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:45IOWA Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick23.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call23.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:10IOWA Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick42.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call42.3%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 7:44WIS Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.7%97% to makeGo for two84.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:01IOWA Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.8%97% to makeGo for two31.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIOWADrive 1FUMBLE3 plays · 14 yds · 0:2030% → 30%
WISDrive 2FG6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1870% → 69%
IOWADrive 3FG17 plays · 79 yds · 7:2931% → 35%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
30.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 5 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+6
31.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 6 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+5
31.2%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Iowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+10
31.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damond Powell for 10 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
32.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 4 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+28
33.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 28 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
33.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Mark Weisman for 13 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5966% → 65%
Q1 1:49
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
35.5%
Drew Meyer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Matt VandeBerg at the Iowa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3036% → 36%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD7 plays · 70 yds · 3:3865% → 70%
IOWADrive 7PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 3:1032% → 30%
Q2 9:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
31.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 5 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
32.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 4 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-12
31.9%
Jake Rudock sacked by TEAM for a loss of 12 yards to the Iowa 31 IOWA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jake Rudock) to the Iowa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8TD17 plays · 73 yds · 6:3571% → 82%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+8
30.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Melvin Gordon for 8 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
28.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+3
30.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 36 Melvin Gordon fumbled, forced by John Lowdermilk, recovered by Wisc Melvin GordonSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+25
29.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Kenzel Doe for 25 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+12
28.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 12 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+13
28.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Sam Arneson for 13 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9END OF HALF11 plays · 40 yds · 0:5824% → 25%
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
24.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
24.9%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Iowa 25Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+17
22.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 17 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0479% → 81%
IOWADrive 11PUNT9 plays · 48 yds · 3:1722% → 21%
WISDrive 12FG7 plays · 88 yds · 2:2782% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13TD8 plays · 70 yds · 2:3114% → 27%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
14.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 28Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+11
13.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 11 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+31
14.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 31 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+20
27.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 20 yds for a TD, (J. Canzeri Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:4178% → 80%
IOWADrive 15TD7 plays · 82 yds · 2:3621% → 52%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+28
20.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 28 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+33
21.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 33 yds to the Wisc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+15
23.2%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Darius Hillary) to the Wisc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
51.7%
Jake Rudock run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1663% → 89%
IOWADrive 17TD8 plays · 86 yds · 2:2914% → 52%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+27
14.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 27 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
16.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 23 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
17.3%
Jake Rudock sacked by Derek Landisch for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 41Similar
Q4 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
51.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 9 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18END OF GAME10 plays · 26 yds · 4:5069% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:01
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 9 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)
+34.8
TD · Q4 11:10
Jake Rudock run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+26.6
TD · Q4 7:44
Melvin Gordon run for 23 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
-19.6