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PSU

Penn State 13 at Indiana 7

IU
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Zander Diamont pass incomplete to J-Shun Harris II
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:57: Mark Murphy 47 Yd Interception Return (Griffin Oakes Kick) — IU win probability +10.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 3:37: Bill Belton 92 Yd Run (Sam Ficken Kick) — PSU win probability +13.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:36: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for no gain to the PnSt 34 — PSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:24: Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Michael Cooper — IU win probability +12.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:02: Bill Belton run for 14 yds to the Ind 10 for a 1ST down — PSU win probability +16.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 14:34PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:40IU 4th & 6 at PSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:12PSU 4th & 12 at IU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:09IU 4th & 3 at PSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:33PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:10IU 4th & 6 at IU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:29PSU 4th & 12 at PSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:33IU 4th & 2 at IU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:10PSU 4th & 6 at IU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−5.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:06IU 4th & 5 at IU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:29IU 4th & 7 at IU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:07PSU 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:17IU 4th & 18 at IU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−3.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:28PSU 4th & 4 at IU 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%−0.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−11.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:37IU 4th & 16 at IU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−4.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:53PSU 4th & 9 at IU 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−0.8
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:02IU 4th & 22 at IU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−5.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:06PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−6.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:48IU 4th & 5 at PSU 33, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%−0.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−4.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:01PSU 4th & 18 at IU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−6.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:21IU 4th & 7 at IU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:55IU 4th & 18 at IU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−3.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:55PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 33, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.7 ptsPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−5.7
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:55PSU 4th & 11 at IU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−6.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−24.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 3:57IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:37PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:1964% → 64%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
35.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q1 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
35.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 14:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+20
35.7%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Shane Wynn at the INDIANA 33 PENN ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Ind 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4136% → 37%
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
35.9%
Tevin Coleman run for no gain to the Ind 48Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
36.0%
Zander Diamont run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 8
50
+2
36.3%
Tevin Coleman run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
36.5%
Erich Toth punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1864% → 62%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
36.5%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
36.6%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+9
37.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 9 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+29
37.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 29 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
36.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 4 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-6
36.8%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Forisse Hardin for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 46Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
37.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Jesse JamesSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
38.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Shane Wynn at the Ind 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:5638% → 39%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
37.9%
Zander Diamont run for 10 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
37.9%
Tevin Coleman run for 2 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+18
38.2%
Zander Diamont run for 18 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
39.0%
Tevin Coleman run for 1 yd to the Ind 48Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+7
39.1%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Simmie Cobbs for 7 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-1
39.4%
Zander Diamont run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
39.1%
Erich Toth punt for 19 yds, downed at the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3061% → 60%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
38.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 11 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
38.4%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+5
39.2%
Christian Hackenberg run for 5 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
39.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Akeel LynchSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 9
OWN 39
-10
40.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 48 yds , Shane Wynn returns for a loss of 10 yards to the Ind 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:1740% → 40%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+10
39.8%
Tevin Coleman run for 10 yds to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
40.1%
Zander Diamont run for 3 yds to the Ind 16Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+1
40.3%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Tevin Coleman for 1 yd to the Ind 17Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
40.2%
Tevin Coleman run for no gain to the Ind 17Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
40.2%
Erich Toth punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3061% → 59%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
39.3%
Bill Belton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-5
39.2%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Bobby Richardson for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
40.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Jesse JamesSimilar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 12
OWN 38
+1
41.2%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 44 yds , Shane Wynn returns for 1 yd to the Ind 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:2742% → 43%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
42.1%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Dominique Booth for 8 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+14
42.9%
Zander Diamont run for 14 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
43.6%
INDIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dimitric Camiel) to the Ind 26Similar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 25
OWN 26
-1
42.6%
D'Angelo Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 26
OWN 25
0
42.7%
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Shane WynnSimilar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 27
OWN 25
+24
41.1%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Jordan Fuchs for 24 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
42.5%
Erich Toth punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9MISSED FG
16 plays · 80 yds · 6:0959% → 59%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
40.9%
Akeel Lynch run for 20 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
41.2%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+28
42.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 28 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
39.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
39.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 7 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+3
39.6%
Christian Hackenberg run for 3 yds to the Ind 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
38.6%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 31Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+23
39.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 23 yds to the Ind 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
38.7%
Hackenberg, Christian pass incomplete to James, Jesse, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Bennett, Tim) 5 yards to the INDIANA3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
38.6%
Hackenberg, Christian pass incomplete, PENALTY INDIANA personal foul (Hoff, Nate) 2 yards to the INDIANA1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.8%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the Ind 1Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
37.8%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 2Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
39.6%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Nate Hoff for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 6Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
41.2%
Sam Ficken 23 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ralph Green IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5547% → 46%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
46.6%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Tevin Coleman for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 14Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 16
OWN 14
0
46.4%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Shane Wynn for no gain to the Ind 14Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+11
45.9%
Zander Diamont run for 11 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+24
45.7%
Erich Toth punt for 46 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for 24 yds to the Ind 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
56.6%
Mark Murphy 47 Yd Interception Return (Griffin Oakes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 92 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+92
45.0%
Bill Belton 92 Yd Run (Sam Ficken Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0248% → 46%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
47.5%
Tevin Coleman run for 8 yds to the Ind 20Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 2
OWN 20
-10
48.2%
Coleman, Tevin rush for 3 yards to the INDIANA23, PENALTY INDIANA holding (Rahrig, Collin) 10 yards to the INDIANA10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
47.4%
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Tevin ColemanSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 12
OWN 10
0
46.5%
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Simmie CobbsSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 12
OWN 10
+5
45.8%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jesse Della Valle) to the Ind 15Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
45.9%
Erich Toth punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1860% → 56%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
50
0
40.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
50
0
41.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 10
50
0
42.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 10
50
0
44.4%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 38 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15INT
10 plays · 42 yds · 1:5847% → 50%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
47.1%
Tevin Coleman run for 3 yds to the Ind 15Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
47.3%
Tevin Coleman run for no gain to the Ind 15Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+6
46.3%
Tevin Coleman run for 6 yds to the Ind 21Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+5
45.9%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Anthony Zettel) to the Ind 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
48.3%
Shane Wynn run for 16 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
50.1%
Diamont, Zander rush for no gain to the INDIANA42, PENALTY INDIANA holding (Coleman, Tevin) 10 yards to the INDIANA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+12
46.5%
Zander Diamont run for 12 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+10
49.0%
Zander Diamont run for 10 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
50.1%
Zander Diamont pass intercepted Jesse Della Valle return for no gain to the PnSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:3347% → 45%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
47.2%
Zander Diamont pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
47.1%
Tevin Coleman run for 4 yds to the Ind 21Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-5
46.0%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Jason Spriggs) to the Ind 16Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 11
OWN 16
-7
45.8%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Tevin Coleman for a loss of 7 yards to the Ind 9Similar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 18
OWN 9
0
45.0%
Erich Toth punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the Ind 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:3159% → 64%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
40.8%
Bill Belton run for 3 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+17
40.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 17 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
39.9%
Bill Belton run for 2 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
40.0%
Bill Belton run for 3 yds to the Ind 23Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+8
40.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 8 yds to the Ind 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
38.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
38.8%
Bill Belton run for 6 yds to the Ind 9Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
40.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
36.0%
Sam Ficken 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:3739% → 37%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
39.3%
Tevin Coleman run for 4 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+17
39.7%
Tevin Coleman run for 17 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
43.0%
Tevin Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 47Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-5
40.8%
Zander Diamont run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 42Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 16
OWN 42
0
38.2%
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Shane WynnSimilar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
37.0%
Erich Toth punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:3362% → 64%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
37.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 6 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+3
36.8%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
37.2%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
36.9%
Hackenberg, Christian pass incomplete to Hamilton, DaeSean, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Hunter, Michael) 15 yards to the PENNST44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
34.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+16
35.4%
Bill Belton run for 16 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
33.7%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
33.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 6 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
32.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 4
OPP 34
-5
36.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Daniel Pasquariello) to the Ind 39Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
36.5%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:4039% → 36%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
38.6%
Zander Diamont run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 18Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-5
38.1%
Diamont, Zander rush for 5 yards to the INDIANA23, PENALTY INDIANA false start 5 yards to the INDIANA13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+14
37.9%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Dominique Booth for 14 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+19
37.8%
Zander Diamont run for 4 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
42.7%
D'Angelo Roberts run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 6
50
+3
43.6%
D'Angelo Roberts run for 3 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
43.2%
D'Angelo Roberts run for 4 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
44.5%
J-Shun Harris II run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-10
41.9%
Zander Diamont run for a loss of 10 yards to the Ind 45 Zander Diamont fumbled, recovered by Ind Zander DiamontSimilar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 22
OWN 45
0
37.9%
Zander Diamont pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 22
OWN 45
0
36.3%
Erich Toth punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:5463% → 58%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
37.2%
Bill Belton run for 4 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+3
35.6%
Bill Belton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-5
36.5%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Andrew Nelson) to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-7
39.8%
Christian Hackenberg run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 18 Christian Hackenberg fumbled, recovered by PnSt Christian HackenbergSimilar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 15
OWN 18
0
41.8%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 32 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22MISSED FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0645% → 40%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
50
0
45.1%
Tevin Coleman run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
50
+5
42.9%
Tevin Coleman run for 5 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
43.5%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Shane Wynn for 7 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
44.2%
Tevin Coleman run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
43.4%
Tevin Coleman run for 4 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
43.4%
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Simmie CobbsSimilar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+51
40.1%
Griffin Oakes 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3568% → 67%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
32.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for no gain to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+26
31.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 26 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
28.2%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Shawn Heffern for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 44Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 14
OPP 44
-4
29.5%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Antonio Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 48Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 18
OPP 48
0
31.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
33.3%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 32 yds, fair catch by J-Shun Harris II at the Ind 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2836% → 30%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
36.3%
Tevin Coleman run for 2 yds to the Ind 18Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+4
36.1%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Tevin Coleman for 4 yds to the Ind 22Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+2
32.6%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Dominique Booth for 2 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 2
OWN 24
-5
31.0%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ind 19Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
30.3%
Erich Toth punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:3577% → 74%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
22.7%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 14
OWN 49
0
25.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 14
OWN 49
0
26.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted Greg Gooch return for no gain to the Ind 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:2939% → 30%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
38.6%
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Michael CooperSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
37.6%
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Dominique BoothSimilar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-8
34.3%
Zander Diamont sacked by Anthony Zettel for a loss of 8 yards to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
30.3%
Erich Toth punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5574% → 77%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
26.3%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
26.2%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+5
25.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 1
OWN 33
-5
23.4%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 43 yds , J-Shun Harris II returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 28INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0330% → 31%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
30.1%
Tevin Coleman run for 6 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+13
30.9%
Zander Diamont pass intercepted Nyeem Wartman return for 13 yds to the Ind 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29FG
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:0785% → 94%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
14.8%
Bill Belton run for 14 yds to the Ind 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
10.2%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 13Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+2
8.7%
Bill Belton run for 2 yds to the Ind 11Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
10.0%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the Ind 11Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
5.8%
Sam Ficken 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 30END OF GAME
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:309% → 9%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
9.2%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Shane Wynn for 5 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+9
9.5%
Zander Diamont pass complete to Dominique Booth for 9 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
9.6%
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Tevin ColemanSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
9.9%
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Simmie CobbsSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
9.1%
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to J-Shun Harris IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:02
Bill Belton run for 14 yds to the Ind 10 for a 1ST down
-16.1
TD · Q2 3:37
Bill Belton 92 Yd Run (Sam Ficken Kick)
-13.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:24
Zander Diamont pass incomplete to Michael Cooper
+12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com