Try the model
IU

Indiana 42 at Bowling Green 45

BGSU
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.6BGSU 48.4%Tyler Tate 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 9 · Q2 8:48
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:48 · Tyler Tate 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Home team on offense−2.1Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:51: Tevin Coleman run for 46 yds for a TD, (Aaron Del Grosso KICK) — IU win probability +21.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:52: Tevin Coleman run for 31 yds for a TD, (Aaron Del Grosso KICK) — IU win probability +27.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:24: James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 31 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +40.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:04: Nate Sudfeld run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Del Grosso KICK) — IU win probability +51.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:09: James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate BLOCKED) — BGSU win probability +57.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 10:39BGSU 4th & 4 at IU 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:09IU 4th & 9 at BGSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:04BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:35IU 4th & 1 at BGSU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:35BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:45BGSU 4th & 10 at IU 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:55IU 4th & 4 at IU 19, up 8
    Close callPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:40BGSU 4th & 4 at IU 36, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%−1.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:48BGSU 4th & 7 at IU 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:51IU 4th & 6 at IU 49, up 5
    Close callPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:31BGSU 4th & 9 at IU 30, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:39IU 4th & 1 at BGSU 22, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%−1.8
    72% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−8.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:27IU 4th & 4 at BGSU 21, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−12.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:26IU 4th & 6 at BGSU 25, up 2
    Close callWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    50.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−13.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:08BGSU 4th & 1 at IU 1, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−6.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−24.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:48BGSU 4th & 4 at IU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−2.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−5.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:04IU 4th & 1 at BGSU 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%−15.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−33.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3IU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 3:23IU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56IU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:52BGSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:11IU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:47BGSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:51IU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:52IU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:24BGSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:04IU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1FG
16 plays · 50 yds · 4:0151% → 52%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
51.0%
Travis Greene run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-5
51.0%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Tim McAuliffe) to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+6
51.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Travis Greene for 6 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+8
51.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 8 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
51.3%
James Knapke pass incomplete, broken up by Nick MangieriSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
51.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 6 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+4
51.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 4 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
51.5%
James Knapke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
51.6%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 11 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
51.8%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 2 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+9
51.9%
James Knapke run for 9 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
52.0%
James Knapke pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 19Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+9
52.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Chris Pohlman for 9 yds to the Ind 10Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
52.1%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
52.3%
Tyler Tate 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:2148% → 47%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
52.1%
Tevin Coleman run for no gain to the Ind 30Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
52.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Nick Stoner for 9 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
51.9%
Tevin Coleman run for 4 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
51.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Nick Stoner for 8 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
52.0%
Nate Sudfeld run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
52.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-3
52.1%
Tevin Coleman run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+4
52.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Tevin Coleman for 4 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
53.1%
Erich Toth punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:5153% → 54%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
52.9%
Travis Greene run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
53.4%
Travis Greene run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
53.1%
James Knapke pass incomplete, broken up by Forisse HardinSimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
53.0%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+9
52.7%
James Knapke run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
53.6%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Chris PohlmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2047% → 46%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
52.8%
Tevin Coleman run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
52.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Shane Wynn for 7 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
0
53.0%
Tevin Coleman run for no gain to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
53.7%
Tevin Coleman run for no gain to the BwGrn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
54.1%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the BwGrn 33 Fred Coppet fumbled, recovered by Ind Marcus OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:3747% → 51%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
52.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Shane Wynn for 32 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
52.8%
Tevin Coleman run for no gain to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.5%
Nate Sudfeld run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Del Grosso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2551% → 50%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
50.8%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
51.0%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
50.6%
James Knapke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+42
50.1%
Joe Davidson punt for 32 yds, downed at the BOWLGREEN 31 INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ind 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 1:3449% → 56%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
50.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Nick Stoner for 7 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+7
50.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 7 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
50.2%
INDIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Ind 20Similar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
50.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Shane Wynn for 16 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
50.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 5 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+16
49.5%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (16 Yards) to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
49.2%
Tevin Coleman run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+14
49.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Dominique Booth for 14 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
43.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 22 yds for a TD, (Aaron Del Grosso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 2:0045% → 46%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
44.7%
Travis Greene run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+4
45.1%
Travis Greene run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
44.8%
Travis Greene run for 19 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
45.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 13 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
46.1%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+10
46.0%
James Knapke pass complete to Travis Greene for 10 yds to the Ind 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
45.9%
James Knapke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
45.9%
James Knapke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
44.9%
James Knapke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
45.6%
Tyler Tate 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4054% → 55%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+11
45.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Nick Stoner for 11 yds to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
45.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Shane WynnSimilar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
45.0%
Tevin Coleman run for no gain to the Ind 13Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+6
45.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Tevin Coleman for 6 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
45.4%
Erich Toth punt for 24 yds, downed at the Ind 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11FG
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:5247% → 48%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
46.6%
Fred Coppet run for 7 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
46.5%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the Ind 36Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
46.0%
James Knapke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+6
43.5%
James Knapke run for 6 yds to the Ind 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
45.6%
James Knapke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
45.0%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 3 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
43.8%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
48.4%
Tyler Tate 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:3953% → 54%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
47.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to D'Angelo Roberts for 6 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
46.1%
D'Angelo Roberts run for 5 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
45.0%
D'Angelo Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 44Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+5
45.2%
Nate Sudfeld run for 5 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
44.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Michael CooperSimilar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
46.2%
Erich Toth punt for 10 yds, downed at the BwGrn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:1348% → 52%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
47.7%
James Knapke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
46.8%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+27
46.0%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 27 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
50.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (J.J. Beggan) to the Ind 36Similar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+6
46.5%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 6 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
49.2%
James Knapke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
47.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Heath Jackson for no gain to the Ind 30Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
52.1%
Tyler Tate 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:4152% → 53%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
48.4%
Tevin Coleman run for 16 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
46.6%
Tevin Coleman run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
46.2%
Tevin Coleman run for no gain to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+13
47.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Nick Stoner for 13 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
45.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Nick StonerSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
45.4%
D'Angelo Roberts run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+8
46.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to D'Angelo Roberts for 8 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 1
OPP 22
-2
46.9%
Chris Covington run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15END OF HALF
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:1550% → 51%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
50.0%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+11
49.8%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 11 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
51.1%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
50.5%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
51.2%
James Knapke pass incomplete, broken up by Tim BennettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:2352% → 53%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Shane Wynn for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
46.7%
Nate Sudfeld run for 13 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
45.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Shane Wynn for 3 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+2
45.5%
Nate Sudfeld run for 2 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+24
45.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Tevin Coleman for 24 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
43.6%
Tevin Coleman run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-1
43.6%
Tevin Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
45.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for no gain to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
47.5%
Aaron Del Grosso 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 2:2950% → 68%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
49.7%
James Knapke pass complete to Fred Coppet for 5 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
50.2%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+5
48.9%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 5 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
50.2%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+10
52.6%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 10 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
53.4%
INDIANA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Ind 48Similar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 5
OPP 48
0
54.2%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
54.1%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Heath JacksonSimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+8
53.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 8 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
54.2%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
68.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 40 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:3441% → 57%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
58.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Michael Cooper for 14 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
57.4%
Tevin Coleman run for no gain to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
43.5%
Tevin Coleman run for 28 yds for a TD, (Aaron Del Grosso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:2849% → 50%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
48.9%
Travis Greene run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+10
49.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 10 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
49.5%
James Knapke pass intercepted Nick Mangieri return for no gain to the BwGrn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4557% → 54%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
42.8%
Nate Sudfeld pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
43.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+4
44.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Tevin Coleman for 4 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 6
OPP 25
0
46.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Tevin ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:2350% → 72%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.6%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 6 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
52.0%
Travis Greene run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
51.4%
Travis Greene run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
50.8%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+15
48.9%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Michael Hunter) to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
54.0%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 17 yds to the Ind 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
54.9%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 4 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+9
55.0%
James Knapke pass complete to Heath Jackson for 9 yds to the Ind 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
55.0%
Travis Greene run for 10 yds to the Ind 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
55.0%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the Ind 5Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
71.8%
Travis Greene run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4237% → 60%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
63.5%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Nick Stoner for 9 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
60.3%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Shane Wynn for 5 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
61.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Nick Johnson) to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
40.0%
Tevin Coleman run for 46 yds for a TD, (Aaron Del Grosso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 3:3248% → 71%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
48.0%
James Knapke pass incomplete, broken up by David CooperSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+12
47.5%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 12 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
48.6%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 6 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
52.6%
James Knapke pass complete to Heath Jackson for 3 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+15
51.3%
INDIANA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
53.7%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 6 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+15
56.1%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Rashard Fant) to the Ind 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
56.1%
James Knapke run for 5 yds to the Ind 15Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
56.2%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+5
53.9%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ind 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
56.2%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the Ind 9Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
56.3%
James Knapke run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 10Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
53.9%
James Knapke pass complete to Heath Jackson for 9 yds to the Ind 1Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.8%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Knapke failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:0334% → 65%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
65.6%
Tevin Coleman run for 8 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+10
63.1%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 10 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
63.3%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Shane Wynn for 12 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
35.3%
Tevin Coleman run for 31 yds for a TD, (Aaron Del Grosso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 1:5242% → 43%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
41.5%
Travis Greene run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
44.9%
Travis Greene run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
46.3%
Travis Greene run for 6 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
47.3%
Travis Greene run for 5 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
47.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Heath Jackson for 4 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
47.3%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Heath JacksonSimilar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+2
45.7%
James Knapke pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 2 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
42.9%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:1666% → 72%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
33.9%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Shane Wynn for 30 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
29.4%
Tevin Coleman run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
28.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Shane WynnSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+7
30.0%
Tevin Coleman run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
27.6%
Tevin Coleman run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 12 Tevin Coleman fumbled, forced by Charlie Walker, recovered by BwGrn Ryland WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 3:3138% → 84%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
38.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 10 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
38.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 4 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
38.8%
James Knapke pass complete to Travis Greene for 1 yd to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+5
37.2%
James Knapke run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
37.2%
James Knapke run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+14
40.6%
James Knapke pass complete to Heath Jackson for 14 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
42.1%
Travis Greene run for 7 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+9
42.4%
James Knapke pass complete to Heath Jackson for 9 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
43.8%
Travis Greene run for no gain to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
84.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 31 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 28TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 2:5629% → 81%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
71.4%
D'Angelo Roberts run for 12 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
69.3%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Shane Wynn for 18 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
69.6%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to J-Shun Harris II for 22 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
66.9%
D'Angelo Roberts run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+9
67.1%
Tevin Coleman run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
64.9%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Michael Cooper) to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q4 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
67.2%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Shane WynnSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
66.8%
Tevin Coleman run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.6%
Nate Sudfeld run for no gain to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.0%
Nate Sudfeld run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Del Grosso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 29TD
16 plays · 88 yds · 1:4629% → 96%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
28.7%
James Knapke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+11
28.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 11 yds to the BwGrn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
29.0%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 7 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
30.1%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+12
26.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 12 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
25.3%
James Knapke pass complete to Heath Jackson for no gain to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+17
22.8%
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 17 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
28.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Herve Coby for 4 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
37.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Herve Coby for 4 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+15
32.3%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kenny Mullen) to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
34.2%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Michael Hunter) to the Ind 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
38.5%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.0%
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0118% → 20%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
82.4%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Shane Wynn for 12 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
80.0%
Nate Sudfeld pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:09
James Knapke pass complete to Roger Lewis for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate BLOCKED)
+57.5
TD · Q4 2:04
Nate Sudfeld run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Del Grosso KICK)
-51.6
TD · Q4 5:24
James Knapke pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 31 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
+40.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com