Try the model
ILL

Illinois 47 at Northwestern 33

NU
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Ryan Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:06 · Justin DuVernois punt for 30 yds, downed at the Nwest 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Home team on offense−38.5Pregame prior+2.9Score differential−19.3Garbage-time factor−10.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:47: Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 14 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +17.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:24: Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Martize Barr for 9 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +14.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:56: Justin Jackson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +16.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:05: Justin Jackson run for 35 yds for a TD, (Zack Oliver pass to Cameron Dickerson for Two-Point Conversion) — NU win probability +11.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:39: Josh Ferguson run for 46 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +13.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:11NU 4th & 12 at NU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:33ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:50NU 4th & 1 at NU 12, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:26ILL 4th & 20 at ILL 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:20NU 4th & 2 at NU 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:26ILL 4th & 13 at NU 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.9
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−6.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:12ILL 4th & 3 at NU 33, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−2.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:07ILL 4th & 12 at NU 18, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−2.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−10.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:39ILL 4th & 6 at NU 14, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−9.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:22ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 27, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:54NU 4th & 8 at NU 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:24NU 4th & 9 at ILL 18, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−5.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:52ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 34, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:05NU 4th & 1 at ILL 35, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−4.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−5.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:13NU 4th & 3 at NU 43, down 15
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:06ILL 4th & 4 at NU 37, up 15
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−0.8
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:45NU 4th & 5 at NU 12, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:00NU 4th & 4 at NU 31, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:00NU 4th & 1 at NU 45, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 1:41ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:56ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:24NU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:47ILL Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:24ILL Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:56NU Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:05NU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:39ILL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:58ILL Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:28NU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:3977% → 77%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
77.2%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
77.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
77.0%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Dan Vitale for 3 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
77.0%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Cameron DickersonSimilar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
76.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Cameron Dickerson) to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
76.9%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
76.8%
Chris Gradone punt for 30 yds , Darius Mosely returns for no gain to the Illin 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:2723% → 24%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
76.8%
Reilly O'Toole run for 4 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
76.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Donovonn Young for 4 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
76.4%
Donovonn Young run for 5 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
76.2%
Reilly O'Toole run for 3 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-5
76.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Jon Davis) to the Illin 46Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
76.3%
Justin DuVernois punt for 51 yds, downed at the Nwest 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2976% → 75%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
76.1%
Treyvon Green run for 7 yds to the Nwest 10Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+1
76.1%
Treyvon Green run for 1 yd to the Nwest 11Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+1
75.9%
Zack Oliver run for 1 yd to the Nwest 12Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
75.3%
Chris Gradone punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Darius Mosely at the Illin 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
3 plays · -10 yds · 1:0625% → 25%
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
75.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 5 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-15
75.0%
O'Toole, Reilly pass complete to Ferguson, Josh for 11 yards to the NORTHWSTRN35, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Dudek, Mike) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS39, NO PLAY, QB hurry by #, QB hit by #.Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 20
OWN 39
0
75.5%
Justin DuVernois punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5875% → 75%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
75.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+6
75.2%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Justin Jackson for 6 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
74.9%
Matt Alviti pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
74.6%
Chris Gradone punt for 31 yds, downed at the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
12 plays · 56 yds · 4:1926% → 32%
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
74.4%
Donovonn Young run for 13 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
74.0%
Reilly O'Toole run for 7 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+1
73.7%
Donovonn Young run for 1 yd to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
73.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 24 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Hardee) to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+14
73.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 14 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
73.1%
Reilly O'Toole run for 2 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+8
72.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 8 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
72.3%
Reilly O'Toole run for no gain to the Nwest 10Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
67.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Malik Turner for 10 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.5%
Zack Oliver pass intercepted Earnest Thomas III return for no gain to the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:2632% → 37%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+42
67.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 42 yds to the Nwest 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
67.1%
Reilly O'Toole run for 6 yds to the Nwest 1Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd for a TD, (David Reisner PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2067% → 67%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.0%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
67.0%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
66.8%
Justin Jackson run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
50
+3
67.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-4
67.3%
Zack Oliver run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 48 Zack Oliver fumbled, recovered by Illin Mason MonheimSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10FG
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:5438% → 39%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
61.6%
O'Toole, Reilly pass incomplete to Dudek, Mike (#), PENALTY NORTHWSTRN pass interference (Queiro, Kyle) 14 yards to the NORTHWSTRN33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS, QB hurry by #, QB hit by #. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
61.1%
Donovonn Young run for 21 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
60.8%
Donovonn Young run for 1 yd to the Nwest 11Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-4
59.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Donovonn Young for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 13
OPP 15
+33
60.6%
David Reisner 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
61.1%
Zack Oliver pass intercepted Eaton Spence return for 15 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:3942% → 46%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
58.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+5
57.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Malik Turner for 5 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+17
56.8%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 17 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
54.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
53.0%
Reilly O'Toole run for 1 yd to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-5
52.5%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 18Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+36
54.2%
David Reisner 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2455% → 54%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
54.7%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-3
54.0%
Zack Oliver run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 18 Zack Oliver fumbled, forced by Jihad Ward, recovered by Illin Jihad WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FG
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4550% → 49%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
49.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 17Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+3
49.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 3 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+5
48.3%
Reilly O'Toole run for 5 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 1
OPP 9
-5
48.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Austin Schmidt) to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+33
51.2%
Taylor Zalewski 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4647% → 47%
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.7%
Donovonn Young run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
52.9%
Justin DuVernois punt for 41 yds, downed at the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1353% → 50%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
52.5%
Matt Alviti pass complete to Tony Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+5
51.4%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
50.6%
Matt Alviti pass incomplete to Tony JonesSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+7
49.8%
Chris Gradone punt for 45 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 7 yds to the Illin 41 ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Block (Cedric Doxy) to the Illin 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:0350% → 74%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+24
49.8%
Reilly O'Toole run for 24 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
48.4%
Reilly O'Toole run for 14 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
46.8%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+11
44.8%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 11 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
43.3%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+22
43.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 8 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Ifeadi Odenigbo) to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
25.8%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 14 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:3744% → 39%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.6%
Treyvon Green run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
39.4%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass intercepted Matthew Harris return for no gain to the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:1636% → 37%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
35.8%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
36.2%
Zack Oliver pass incomplete to Mike McHughSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
35.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
35.3%
Zack Oliver run for 8 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
35.2%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
33.0%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Illin 18Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
32.2%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Treyvon Green for no gain to the Illin 18Similar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+34
37.3%
Jack Mitchell 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5169% → 91%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.4%
Reilly O'Toole run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
30.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 12 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
28.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 10 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
27.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 5 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
26.4%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+9
25.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 9 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+6
25.5%
Reilly O'Toole run for 6 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
23.9%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+6
23.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Martize Barr for 6 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
9.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Martize Barr for 9 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1911% → 28%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
11.3%
Justin Jackson run for 14 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
11.4%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-3
11.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+18
10.6%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Tony Jones for 18 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
10.7%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
10.5%
Treyvon Green run for no gain to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+19
10.2%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Tony Jones for 19 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
10.2%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Tony Jones for 16 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
10.9%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Illin 5Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
27.7%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4380% → 82%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.7%
Mike Dudek run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.7%
Donovonn Young run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
18.2%
Reilly O'Toole run for 5 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-2
17.9%
Justin DuVernois punt for 47 yds , Tony Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:2521% → 34%
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
20.5%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+9
20.7%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Dan Vitale for 9 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
20.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+19
19.6%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Mike McHugh for 19 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
22.0%
Zack Oliver sacked by Austin Teitsma for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+11
21.5%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Pierre Youngblood-Ary for 11 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
22.1%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+35
34.0%
Justin Jackson run for 35 yds for a TD, (Zack Oliver pass to Cameron Dickerson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 0:5676% → 89%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
24.3%
Reilly O'Toole run for 4 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+6
24.1%
Reilly O'Toole run for 6 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
10.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 46 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1617% → 12%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.1%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
16.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
15.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Earnest Thomas III) to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
15.8%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
16.0%
Treyvon Green run for 5 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-1
12.6%
Zack Oliver sacked by Jarrod Clements for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 43Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
11.5%
Chris Gradone punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 44 yds · 3:5492% → 95%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
8.1%
Reilly O'Toole run for 9 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+4
7.7%
Reilly O'Toole run for 4 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
7.5%
Reilly O'Toole run for 25 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
6.8%
Donovonn Young run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
6.1%
Reilly O'Toole run for 5 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-2
5.7%
Reilly O'Toole run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
5.3%
Justin DuVernois punt for 30 yds, downed at the Nwest 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 29INT TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:526% → 1%
Q4 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+5
6.0%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Mike McHugh for 5 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 5
OWN 12
+35
6.2%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Justin Jackson for 35 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+49
1.3%
Zack Oliver pass intercepted for a TD Mason Monheim return for 49 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 30TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:221% → 4%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.2%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
1.2%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 1 yd to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
1.1%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Pierre Youngblood-Ary for 5 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
1.1%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Cameron Dickerson for 4 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
1.1%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Jayme Taylor for 5 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+4
1.1%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Solomon Vault for 4 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+12
1.1%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Mike McHugh for 12 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
1.1%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Mike McHugh for 1 yd to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+21
1.1%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Austin Carr for 21 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
1.3%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Pierre Youngblood-Ary for 13 yds to the Illin 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.1%
Zack Oliver pass complete to Treyvon Green for 4 yds for a TD, (Zack Oliver pass to Tony Jones for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 31END OF GAME
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:2298% → 98%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
2.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 43Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+13
2.0%
Reilly O'Toole run for 13 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
1.8%
Donovonn Young run for 1 yd to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-2
1.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:47
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 14 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
-17.2
TD · Q3 3:56
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+16.8
TD · Q3 7:24
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Martize Barr for 9 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
-14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com