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PSU

Penn State 14 at Illinois 16

ILL
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:49 · Brad Bars run for 32 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.5+11.30−11.3−22.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior−15.8Home team on offense−2.0Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:25: Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 1 yd for a TD, (David Reisner KICK) — ILL win probability +12.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:37: Akeel Lynch run for 47 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK) — PSU win probability +26.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:14: Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 35 — PSU win probability +14.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:28: Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 25 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST down — ILL win probability +15.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  5. FG · Q4 0:08: David Reisner 36 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +59.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 12PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:13ILL 4th & 15 at ILL 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:55ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:49PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 46, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:23PSU 4th & 2 at ILL 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.0%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:12ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 18, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00PSU 4th & 18 at PSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:34ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:02PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:30ILL 4th & 8 at PSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−1.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:26ILL 4th & 4 at PSU 40, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−1.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:52PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:26ILL 4th & 3 at PSU 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%−0.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−10.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:59PSU 4th & 15 at ILL 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−3.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:19ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:11PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−3.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:51ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:43ILL 4th & 4 at PSU 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−1.7
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−15.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:15PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−3.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:29ILL 4th & 4 at PSU 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−3.7
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−12.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:48PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 41, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 9.9 ptsPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−9.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:08ILL 4th & 14 at PSU 18, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−48.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−55.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:24PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:25ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:37PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2732% → 32%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
31.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 11 yds to the Illin 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
32.0%
Donovonn Young run for 3 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-8
32.3%
Wes Lunt sacked by Anthony Zettel for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 13Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 15
OWN 13
0
32.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 15
OWN 13
0
32.4%
Justin DuVernois punt for 39 yds, downed at the PnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:3968% → 68%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
32.4%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
32.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 9 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
32.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
32.9%
Akeel Lynch run for 10 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
33.0%
Akeel Lynch run for 6 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+6
33.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 6 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
33.4%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the Illin 19Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
33.6%
Bill Belton run for 1 yd to the Illin 18Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+18
31.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 18 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1932% → 32%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.3%
Donovonn Young run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Devin ChurchSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
32.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Jon Davis for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+11
32.2%
Justin DuVernois punt for 31 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for 11 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:2568% → 68%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
31.6%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
31.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
31.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Jesse JamesSimilar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+32
32.4%
Brad Bars run for 32 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
31.3%
DaeSean Hamilton run for 8 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+3
31.3%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
31.2%
Akeel Lynch run for 6 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+1
31.2%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the Illin 4Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+1
31.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the Illin 3Similar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 2
OPP 3
-8
31.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0032% → 32%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
32.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 5 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+2
32.3%
Devin Church run for 2 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
31.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q1 1:12
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
31.7%
Justin DuVernois punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the Illin 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0369% → 67%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
31.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
31.0%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-9
31.1%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by LaKeith Walls for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 18
OWN 43
+14
33.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 42 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 14 yds to the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2133% → 32%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
33.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Matt LaCosseSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
33.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
32.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Matt LaCosseSimilar
Q2 14:34
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
32.3%
Justin DuVernois punt for 71 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:1867% → 67%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
32.8%
Bill Belton run for 5 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
32.4%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+16
32.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Akeel Lynch for 16 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
31.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
31.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-2
31.8%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
33.2%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 34 yds, downed at the Illin 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:2433% → 32%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
33.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 12 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
33.8%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
33.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 7 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+10
34.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
35.1%
Wes Lunt sacked by C.J. Olaniyan for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 16
OWN 47
+8
32.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 8 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
33.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
31.9%
Justin DuVernois punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:3068% → 69%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
32.3%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the PnSt 13Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+7
31.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Akeel Lynch for 7 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+15
31.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Ralph Cooper) to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
30.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
30.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 11 yds to the PnSt 46 Akeel Lynch fumbled, recovered by IllinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5633% → 32%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
33.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+8
32.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Donovonn Young for 8 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
33.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
32.0%
Justin DuVernois punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2469% → 71%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
31.0%
Cole Chiappialle run for 3 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
30.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+10
31.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
30.0%
Cole Chiappialle run for 3 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
29.6%
Cole Chiappialle run for 2 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
28.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Jesse JamesSimilar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
29.5%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 30 yds, downed at the Illin 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14TD
15 plays · 68 yds · 2:1631% → 48%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
30.8%
Reilly O'Toole run for 5 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
32.0%
Reilly O'Toole run for no gain to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+2
30.4%
Reilly O'Toole run for 2 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+4
31.4%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Chris Geiss) to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
33.0%
Donovonn Young run for 6 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
34.1%
Donovonn Young run for 5 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
34.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 9 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+9
34.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 9 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
36.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Matt LaCosseSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+20
36.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 20 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
36.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
36.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 7 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 1 yd for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
41.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1449% → 52%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
49.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 6 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+6
49.5%
Donovonn Young run for 6 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
49.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+8
49.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 8 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
50.0%
Donovonn Young run for no gain to the PnSt 13Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+4
48.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Donovonn Young for 4 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+28
51.9%
David Reisner 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:1151% → 47%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
49.0%
DaeSean Hamilton run for 11 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
47.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 6 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
46.9%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
47.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
47.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
47.8%
DaeSean Hamilton run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 15
OPP 49
0
51.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q3 8:59
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
53.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3054% → 52%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
53.7%
Donovonn Young run for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
54.4%
Reilly O'Toole run for 1 yd to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
53.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
52.3%
Justin DuVernois punt for 41 yds, downed at the PnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5148% → 43%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
51.9%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
51.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-11
51.4%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Jihad Ward for a loss of 11 yards to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 15
OWN 29
+4
57.1%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 49 yds , Mike Dudek returns for 4 yds to the Illin 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0756% → 55%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
56.0%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+5
55.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-1
56.9%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+4
55.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 4 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
55.4%
Justin DuVernois punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:5343% → 72%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
57.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 7 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
55.5%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
56.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
57.0%
Geno Lewis run for 1 yd to the PnSt 36Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
57.2%
Akeel Lynch run for 5 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+9
55.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
50
+3
54.9%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+47
28.2%
Akeel Lynch run for 47 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 4:2836% → 48%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
35.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Malik Turner for 8 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+14
39.2%
Donovonn Young run for 14 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
40.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 6 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+2
40.6%
Donovonn Young run for 2 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
40.1%
Aaron Bailey run for 1 yd to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+10
37.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
42.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 9 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+2
43.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 2 yds to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
42.6%
Donovonn Young run for 5 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+1
42.7%
Donovonn Young run for 1 yd to the PnSt 7Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
40.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
48.3%
David Reisner 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:2858% → 59%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
40.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
40.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 6 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
40.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
40.8%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Darius Mosely at the Illin 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24MISSED FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:4146% → 49%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
46.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+18
45.2%
Donovonn Young run for 18 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
51.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
51.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 8 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+6
52.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 6 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
53.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 8 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 2
OPP 30
-2
55.5%
Donovonn Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
52.8%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+50
49.1%
David Reisner 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2666% → 71%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
34.5%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
33.3%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+4
31.4%
Christian Hackenberg run for 4 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
29.4%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Darius Mosely at the Illin 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 1:2045% → 93%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
45.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 25 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
50.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 17 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
55.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 16 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
52.3%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 17Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 13
OPP 17
-1
53.9%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 18Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 14
OPP 18
0
44.6%
Donovonn Young run for no gain to the PnSt 18Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 14
OPP 18
+36
92.5%
David Reisner 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 9 yds to the PnSt 34 lat. to Akeel Lynch for 12 yds to the PnSt 46 lat. to DaeSean Hamilton for no gain to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:08
David Reisner 36 yd FG GOOD
+59.1
TD · Q4 13:37
Akeel Lynch run for 47 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)
-26.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:28
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 25 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST down
+15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com