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IOWA

Iowa 30 at Illinois 14

ILL
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:14 · Justin DuVernois punt for 36 yds , Matt VandeBerg returns for 2 yds to the Iowa 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense−2.4Pregame prior−6.1Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:56: Jake Rudock pass complete to Ray Hamilton for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +5.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:14: Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 19 — ILL win probability +4.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:56: Jake Rudock pass complete to Ray Hamilton for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +14.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:41: Jake Rudock run for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +10.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:05: C.J. Beathard pass complete to Damond Powell for 19 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +4.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 9IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 1 at ILL 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:56ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:42IOWA 4th & 9 at ILL 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00IOWA 4th & 4 at ILL 47, down 5
    Close callPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:08ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 18, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:56ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 37, down 2
    Close callPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:57IOWA 4th & 2 at ILL 22, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−0.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:39ILL 4th & 16 at IOWA 37, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:15ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:01IOWA 4th & 3 at ILL 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−1.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−11.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:14ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 37, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−2.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:56ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 34, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:41ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 37, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:05ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 47, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:29ILL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:56IOWA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:56IOWA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:41IOWA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:05IOWA Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:52ILL Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 74 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.9%
Mark Weisman run for 6 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
35.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Macon Plewa for 18 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
35.9%
Jonathan Parker run for 20 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+23
35.9%
Mark Weisman run for 23 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
35.9%
Mark Weisman run for 5 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
35.9%
Mark Weisman run for 1 yd to the Illin 2Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
35.9%
Mark Weisman run for 1 yd to the Illin 1Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.9%
Mark Weisman run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
37.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 5 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+8
37.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 8 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-6
37.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal formation (-6 Yards) to the Illin 8Similar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 16
OWN 8
-5
37.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 3Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 21
OWN 3
+5
37.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 5 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 16
OWN 8
+2
37.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 2 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 14
OWN 10
+26
37.1%
Justin DuVernois punt for 41 yds ILLINOIS Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
37.7%
Akrum Wadley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+3
37.8%
Damon Bullock run for 3 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
37.8%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
38.4%
Connor Kornbrath punt for 28 yds, downed at the Illin 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4SF
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:0339% → 38%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-4
39.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (-4 Yards) to the Illin 3Similar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 14
OWN 3
+4
39.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
39.1%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 7
-4
38.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, delay of game (Wes Lunt) to the Illin 3Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 14
OWN 3
-3
38.1%
Wes Lunt sacked by Louis Trinca-Pasat for a loss of 3 yards for a SAFETY ILLINOIS Penalty, intentional grounding (Wes Lunt) to the Illin 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
38.7%
Mark Weisman run for 9 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+7
38.2%
Mark Weisman run for 7 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
38.2%
Jake Rudock run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 34 Jake Rudock fumbled, recovered by Illin Jihad WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 1:1341% → 43%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
40.8%
Donovonn Young run for 2 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+1
40.9%
Mike Dudek run for 1 yd to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+31
43.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 31 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:2958% → 57%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
42.4%
Mark Weisman run for 3 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+12
42.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Ray Hamilton for 12 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
42.0%
Mark Weisman run for 6 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
41.2%
Mark Weisman run for 3 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
41.3%
Jake Rudock run for 2 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
41.2%
Damon Bullock run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+3
41.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
42.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Ray HamiltonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+3
42.9%
Connor Kornbrath punt for 35 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 3 yds to the Illin 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
43.7%
Jon Davis run for 3 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
43.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
43.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
42.5%
Justin DuVernois punt for 49 yds, downed at the Iowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:2256% → 61%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+44
44.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 44 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
44.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 13 yds to the Illin 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
44.4%
Jake Rudock run for 6 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
44.4%
Mark Weisman run for 3 yds to the Illin 1 Mark Weisman fumbled, forced by Taylor Barton, recovered by Iowa Ray HamiltonSimilar
Q2 10:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Ray Hamilton for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
42.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Tyrin Stone-DavisSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
42.2%
Lunt, Wes pass complete to LaCosse, Matt for 3 yards to the ILL32, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ILL illegal formation 5 yards to the ILL24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+3
42.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 3 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+10
41.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 10 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+5
42.0%
Justin DuVernois punt for 37 yds , Matt VandeBerg returns for 5 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 48 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+39
41.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 39 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
38.9%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
38.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+1
39.5%
Mark Weisman run for 1 yd to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+1
40.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Macon Plewa for 1 yd to the Illin 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · 42 yds · 4:5043% → 42%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
42.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 11 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
43.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
45.2%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
44.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
44.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Jon Davis for 15 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
45.5%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-1
45.5%
Donovonn Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+8
45.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 8 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-7
46.5%
Wes Lunt run for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 17
OPP 38
+1
43.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 16
OPP 37
0
44.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 16
OPP 37
0
42.4%
Justin DuVernois punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Matt VandeBerg at the Iowa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13MISSED FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 1:2757% → 64%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
42.7%
Damon Bullock run for 12 yds to the Iowa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
42.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damond Powell for 6 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
41.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+20
42.2%
Jake Rudock run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
50
+7
38.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 7 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+15
38.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 15 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
36.7%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+46
36.2%
Marshall Koehn 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4543% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
42.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
40.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Mike Dudek, broken up by Desmond KingSimilar
Q3 14:15
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+4
40.2%
Justin DuVernois punt for 50 yds , Matt VandeBerg returns for 4 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
39.2%
Jonathan Parker run for 1 yd to the Iowa 29Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+3
39.5%
Mark Weisman run for 3 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+10
39.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 10 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
37.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+28
38.2%
Mark Weisman run for 28 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
35.8%
Mark Weisman run for 4 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+2
35.4%
Mark Weisman run for 2 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+1
36.6%
Jake Rudock run for 1 yd to the Illin 23 Jake Rudock fumbled, recovered by Iowa Jake RudockSimilar
Q3 14:01
4TH & 3
OPP 23
0
38.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Tevaun Smith, broken up by Eaton SpenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
42.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+13
42.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 13 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+6
43.6%
Aaron Bailey run for 6 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
44.5%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
43.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
41.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+2
40.7%
Justin DuVernois punt for 36 yds , Matt VandeBerg returns for 2 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:3060% → 79%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
40.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+3
39.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+17
40.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 17 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
37.1%
Mark Weisman run for 7 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+7
36.7%
Mark Weisman run for 7 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
35.8%
Jake Rudock run for 8 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+15
35.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 15 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
35.3%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Kevonte Martin-Manley, broken up by Eaton SpenceSimilar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
35.3%
Mark Weisman run for 5 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
20.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Ray Hamilton for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.3%
Donovonn Young run for 8 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
25.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
24.5%
Donovonn Young run for 1 yd to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
23.8%
Justin DuVernois punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:0879% → 93%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
21.5%
Jake Rudock run for no gain to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Jarrod Clements) to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
20.3%
Mark Weisman run for 5 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
19.9%
Mark Weisman run for 2 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+21
20.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 21 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
17.6%
Jordan Canzeri run for 14 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
17.6%
Mark Weisman run for 3 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
6.9%
Jake Rudock run for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
11.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 11 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
11.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 3 yds Josh Ferguson fumbled, forced by Quinton Alston, recovered by Illin Michael HeitzSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 12
OWN 32
0
11.0%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+5
11.0%
Wes Lunt run for 5 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
11.1%
Justin DuVernois punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Matt VandeBerg at the Iowa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 3:5093% → 99%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
7.1%
Jordan Canzeri run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 11Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+13
7.2%
Jonathan Parker run for 13 yds to the Iowa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
7.0%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+53
6.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jake Duzey for 53 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
6.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Ray Hamilton for 1 yd to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
6.0%
C.J. Beathard run for no gain to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+19
1.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Damond Powell for 19 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 4:132% → 4%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
1.8%
Reilly O'Toole run for 7 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+15
1.9%
Donovonn Young run for 15 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
1.9%
Reilly O'Toole run for 2 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
1.9%
Reilly O'Toole run for 4 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+8
2.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Martize Barr for 8 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
2.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Martize BarrSimilar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
2.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
1.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+17
1.9%
Reilly O'Toole run for 17 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
2.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 6 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 4
OPP 30
-1
2.4%
Reilly O'Toole run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 31Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+31
4.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 31 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23END OF GAME
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:2997% → 99%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
2.7%
Jordan Canzeri run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+4
2.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+20
2.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 20 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
1.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 3 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+6
1.7%
Akrum Wadley run for 6 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
1.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
1.2%
Wadley, Akrum rush for 3 yards to the ILL11, out-of-bounds (Finney, Eric), PENALTY IOWA holding (Kittle, George) 10 yards to the ILL24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+2
1.2%
Akrum Wadley run for 2 yds to the Illin 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:56
Jake Rudock pass complete to Ray Hamilton for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q4 13:41
Jake Rudock run for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 10:56
Jake Rudock pass complete to Ray Hamilton for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com