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MINN

Minnesota 24 at Illinois 28

ILL
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:36 · Justin DuVernois punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior−1.2Home team on offense+14.5Garbage-time factor+10.6Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:58: Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 52 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +20.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 8:48: Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK) — ILL win probability +14.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:02: David Cobb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +18.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  4. TD · Q3 2:40: David Cobb run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +28.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:33: V'Angelo Bentley 12 Yd Fumble Return TD (David Reisner Kick) — ILL win probability +41.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:30ILL 4th & 1 at MINN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:21ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:56MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:53MINN 4th & 11 at ILL 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:22ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:18MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:31ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:52MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 5, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:21ILL 4th & 5 at MINN 49, up 11
    Close callPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:45MINN 4th & 17 at ILL 44, down 11
    Close callPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    34.0%
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:22ILL 4th & 15 at MINN 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:45ILL 4th & 17 at ILL 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−6.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:13MINN 4th & 10 at ILL 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−15.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:57ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:13MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 31, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:36ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−3.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:44MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.6%−8.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:31ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:39ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:58MINN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:48ILL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:02MINN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:40MINN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:33ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0931% → 36%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
30.6%
Donovonn Young run for 20 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
30.8%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for no gain to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-7
31.1%
Mike Dudek run for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 17
OWN 38
+16
31.3%
Reilly O'Toole run for 16 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+6
31.7%
Reilly O'Toole run for 6 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
32.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 20 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
32.3%
Reilly O'Toole run for 1 yd to the Minn 19Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+3
32.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+11
32.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 11 yds to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
33.4%
Reilly O'Toole run for 2 yds to the Minn 3Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.5%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Jon Davis for 3 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4665% → 64%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.9%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
35.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn JonesSimilar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
35.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+48
35.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 48 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0436% → 36%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
35.8%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 9 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-1
36.5%
Reilly O'Toole run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
36.5%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Martize BarrSimilar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
36.2%
Justin DuVernois punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1563% → 62%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.6%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
37.0%
David Cobb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
37.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
38.2%
Peter Mortell punt for 48 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 3:1238% → 47%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
37.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 7 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+5
38.8%
Reilly O'Toole run for 5 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
39.3%
Reilly O'Toole run for 5 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+14
40.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Jon Davis for 14 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
41.0%
Mike Dudek pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 22 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
41.5%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 12 yds to the Minn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
47.3%
Reilly O'Toole run for 9 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 4:3755% → 53%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
44.8%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+18
45.6%
KJ Maye run for 18 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
45.7%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+16
46.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 16 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
46.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Zac Epping) to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 0:04
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+3
47.4%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+10
47.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (NA) to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+4
45.9%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
46.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-3
47.1%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+2
49.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to David Cobb for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+44
47.0%
Ryan Santoso 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0748% → 48%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.4%
Aaron Bailey run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
49.0%
Aaron Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
48.6%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
48.0%
Justin DuVernois punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4652% → 48%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
48.4%
Berkley Edwards run for 4 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
48.1%
KJ Maye run for 1 yd to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-3
49.6%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Earnest Thomas III for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 37Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+10
52.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 44 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 10 yds to the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1653% → 53%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
52.9%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
53.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
53.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
52.8%
Justin DuVernois punt for 61 yds, downed at the Minn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2746% → 44%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
53.8%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-1
54.6%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 10Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 8
OWN 10
0
55.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 8
OWN 10
-5
56.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Delay of Game (NA) to the Minn 5Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 13
OWN 5
+8
56.4%
Peter Mortell punt for 57 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 8 yds to the Illin 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0457% → 57%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
57.4%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Theiren Cockran for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+8
56.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 8 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
57.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Martize BarrSimilar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
56.6%
Justin DuVernois punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · 38 yds · 3:1542% → 33%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+23
57.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 23 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
56.6%
KJ Maye run for 6 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
56.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
59.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 5 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
59.7%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
59.4%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
59.4%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
60.4%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-5
63.2%
Mitch Leidner sacked by DeJazz Woods and Mason Monheim for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 17
OPP 44
0
66.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn JonesSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 17
OPP 44
0
67.0%
Peter Mortell punt for 35 yds, downed at the Illin 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
65.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Illin 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5536% → 35%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
63.6%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 31Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
64.6%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Mason Monheim return for 3 yds to the Minn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -17 yds · 0:3368% → 68%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
67.5%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Devin Church for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 13
OPP 34
-14
67.7%
Devin Church run for a loss of 14 yards to the Minn 48 Devin Church fumbled, forced by Jalen Myrick, recovered by Minn Damien WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16TD
1 play · 52 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
46.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 52 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5251% → 73%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
51.0%
Devin Church run for 2 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
53.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 17 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
54.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
55.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+19
57.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Jon Davis for 19 yds to the Minn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
59.6%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Minn 15Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-3
60.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Donovonn Young for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+16
58.5%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 16 yds to the Minn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3330% → 46%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
70.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Donovahn Jones for 46 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
65.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 12 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
65.8%
David Cobb run for 11 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
66.3%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 7Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
66.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to David Cobb for 5 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
72.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Earnest Thomas III) to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.8%
David Cobb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:2361% → 61%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
60.5%
Donovonn Young run for 12 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
62.0%
Reilly O'Toole run for 28 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
65.9%
Reilly O'Toole run for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
66.8%
Donovonn Young run for 3 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-8
65.8%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Damien Wilson and De'Niro Laster for a loss of 8 yards to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
61.2%
Justin DuVernois punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:3238% → 67%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+67
61.6%
David Cobb run for 67 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
32.7%
David Cobb run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:3341% → 39%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.1%
Reilly O'Toole run for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
43.9%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
40.6%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 38 Josh Ferguson fumbled, recovered by Illin Josh Ferguson for a 1ST down Josh Ferguson run for 8 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
42.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-9
44.7%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by De'Vondre Campbell for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 17
OWN 31
0
39.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 17
OWN 31
0
39.1%
Justin DuVernois punt for 61 yds, downed at the Minn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22MISSED FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:2360% → 68%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
39.6%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Minn 8Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+5
39.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+10
40.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 10 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
38.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Isaac FruechteSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+16
38.4%
KJ Maye run for 16 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
33.4%
Donnell Kirkwood run for 3 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
33.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn JonesSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+35
34.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 35 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
28.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
27.2%
Donnell Kirkwood run for no gain to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
28.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
31.8%
Ryan Santoso 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0835% → 35%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
35.2%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Offside (NA) to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 5
OWN 28
+3
38.0%
Reilly O'Toole run for 3 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+5
38.5%
Josh Ferguson run for 5 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
37.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
36.5%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 5 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
37.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
34.8%
Justin DuVernois punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -8 yds · 1:1469% → 29%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
30.6%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-6
29.6%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Earnest Thomas III and Jarrod Clements for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 16Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 14
OWN 16
-12
71.1%
V'Angelo Bentley 12 Yd Fumble Return TD (David Reisner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0731% → 27%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.9%
KJ Maye run for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
68.5%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
71.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
73.2%
Peter Mortell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Darius Mosely at the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0984% → 83%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
84.3%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
83.6%
Reilly O'Toole run for 2 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
84.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
83.1%
Justin DuVernois punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 27FUMBLE
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:0125% → 21%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
75.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn JonesSimilar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
76.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 5 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+4
77.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 4 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+1
77.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd to the Minn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
76.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+41
75.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 41 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
66.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Isaac FruechteSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
68.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Isaac FruechteSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
79.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1594% → 94%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
93.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
94.3%
Jon Davis run for 1 yd to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-4
94.8%
Reilly O'Toole run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 20Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+6
94.1%
Justin DuVernois punt for 60 yds , Craig James returns for 6 yds to the Minn 26 ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (NA) to the Minn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:33
V'Angelo Bentley 12 Yd Fumble Return TD (David Reisner Kick)
+41.5
TD · Q3 2:40
David Cobb run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
-28.9
TD · Q3 12:58
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 52 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
-20.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com