Try the model
ILL

Illinois 28 at Wisconsin 38

WIS
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Camp Randall Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:16 · Justin DuVernois punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Pregame prior+28.7Home team on offense+5.8Score differential+1.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:57: Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +3.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:14: Melvin Gordon run for 30 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +5.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:08: Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:50: Corey Clement run for 72 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:53: Donovonn Young run for 1 yd for a TD, (David Reisner KICK) — ILL win probability +5.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:30ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:21WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:57WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:43ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:22WIS 4th & 9 at ILL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:42ILL 4th & 2 at WIS 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:16ILL 4th & 10 at WIS 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03WIS 4th & 4 at ILL 26, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:53ILL 4th & 21 at ILL 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:18WIS 4th & 5 at ILL 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:39ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 39, down 10
    Close callPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:33WIS 4th & 1 at ILL 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−1.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 44, down 17
    Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:09ILL 4th & 18 at WIS 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:51WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 13, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:55WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 49, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:12WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:43ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:08ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:57WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:14WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:08WIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:50WIS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:43ILL Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:53ILL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2794% → 94%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
94.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 15 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
50
+5
94.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 5 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+8
94.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 8 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
94.0%
Natrell Jamerson run for 23 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
93.9%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
94.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 15 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:196% → 6%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
93.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 12 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
93.8%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-1
93.7%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
93.7%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
93.7%
Justin DuVernois punt for 72 yds, downed at the Wisc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5994% → 93%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
93.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the Wisc 3Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+3
93.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 6Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 5
OWN 6
-1
93.4%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 5Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+9
93.2%
Drew Meyer punt for 35 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 9 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:207% → 8%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
93.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 19 yds to the Wisc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
92.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
92.8%
Reilly O'Toole run for 2 yds to the Wisc 8Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
91.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 8 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3192% → 91%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
92.1%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Wisc 19Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-1
91.8%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 18Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
91.5%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 11
OWN 18
+11
91.4%
Drew Meyer punt for 35 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 11 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:369% → 11%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
91.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 9 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+18
90.9%
Reilly O'Toole run for 18 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
90.7%
Devin Church run for 3 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+7
90.5%
Reilly O'Toole run for 7 yds to the Wisc 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.8%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 5 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0389% → 90%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
88.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 10 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
88.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
88.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Sam Arneson for 7 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
87.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
87.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Sam Arneson for 22 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
88.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
87.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Sam Arneson for 5 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+15
87.0%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Arneson, Sam, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference 15 yards to the ILLINOIS6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4412% → 12%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
88.5%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 9 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-5
87.8%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-8
88.0%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Ben Ruechel for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
88.4%
Justin DuVernois punt for 53 yds, downed at the Wisc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 5:1088% → 86%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
88.3%
Tanner McEvoy run for 12 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
88.1%
Alex Erickson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 30Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+16
87.8%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Kenzel Doe for 16 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
88.4%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Alex Erickson for 8 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+4
88.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
88.2%
Corey Clement run for 9 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+3
88.2%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.1%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
87.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
87.3%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Melvin Gordon for no gain to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
86.1%
Rafael Gaglianone 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:3416% → 18%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
84.1%
O'Toole, Reilly pass incomplete, PENALTY WISCONSIN personal foul 15 yards to the ILLINOIS44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
82.9%
Donovonn Young run for no gain to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
83.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 5 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+7
82.4%
Reilly O'Toole run for 7 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
82.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
82.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+7
82.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 7 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
82.5%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Wisc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:2086% → 91%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+34
85.8%
Kenzel Doe run for 34 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
91.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 30 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:4410% → 10%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
90.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 4 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+8
90.2%
O'Toole, Reilly pass incomplete to Dudek, Mike, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference 8 yards to the ILLINOIS27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
90.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 26 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
88.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
89.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
89.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
90.1%
Justin DuVernois punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:0490% → 91%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+46
89.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 46 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
90.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
90.9%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+3
90.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jordan Fredrick for 3 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
90.7%
Rafael Gaglianone 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:2110% → 9%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
90.0%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Konrad Zagzebski for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 21Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
90.2%
Reilly O'Toole run for 2 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-9
91.0%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Leon Jacobs for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+14
91.3%
Justin DuVernois punt for 51 yds , Kenzel Doe returns for 14 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0691% → 90%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
91.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 5 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
91.3%
Melvin Gordon run for no gain to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
90.9%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
90.4%
Drew Meyer punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 5:3110% → 10%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
90.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 5 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+4
90.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+3
90.7%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Martize Barr for 3 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
90.1%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 13Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+4
90.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 4 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+15
90.6%
Reilly O'Toole run for 15 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
89.5%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 2 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-9
89.6%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Derek Landisch for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 17
OWN 25
+14
90.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 14 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
89.9%
Justin DuVernois punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 4:1190% → 97%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+51
90.0%
Corey Clement run for 51 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
91.1%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
91.2%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+7
90.7%
Corey Clement run for 7 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+8
90.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 8 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
91.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 12 yds to the Illin 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
91.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
91.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:524% → 4%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
96.1%
Reilly O'Toole run for 8 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-1
96.1%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
96.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+15
96.3%
Justin DuVernois punt for 43 yds , Kenzel Doe returns for 15 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
99.0%
Corey Clement run for 72 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:271% → 1%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
98.9%
Aaron Bailey run for 16 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
98.9%
Aaron Bailey run for 8 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
98.9%
Aaron Bailey run for 3 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
99.0%
Aaron Bailey run for 7 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-3
98.8%
Aaron Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 34Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-10
99.0%
Bailey, Aaron rush for 26 yards to the WISCONSIN8, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding 10 yards to the WISCONSIN44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 16
OPP 44
-2
99.1%
Aaron Bailey sacked by Vince Biegel for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 46Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
99.1%
Justin DuVernois punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0999% → 99%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
99.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 5 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+2
99.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the Wisc 14Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 3
OWN 14
-1
99.1%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 13Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 4
OWN 13
+30
99.2%
Drew Meyer punt for 46 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 30 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23TD
1 play · 29 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
96.5%
Aaron Bailey run for 29 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:3997% → 98%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.3%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
97.4%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
97.6%
Joel Stave pass complete to Sam Arneson for 14 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.7%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
97.7%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
98.0%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
97.8%
Drew Meyer punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 2:562% → 8%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
97.7%
Aaron Bailey run for 11 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
97.9%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 15 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
97.9%
Aaron Bailey run for 3 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+7
98.0%
Devin Church run for 7 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
98.0%
Bailey, Aaron pass incomplete, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference 15 yards to the WISCONSIN32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.6%
Aaron Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
97.7%
Aaron Bailey run for 2 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+24
97.9%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Mike Dudek for 24 yds to the Wisc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
97.6%
Donovonn Young run for 5 yds to the Wisc 1Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.4%
Donovonn Young run for 1 yd for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26INT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:436% → 4%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
93.7%
Aaron Bailey sacked by Chikwe Obasih for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+8
95.7%
Aaron Bailey run for 8 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+15
96.5%
Bailey, Aaron pass incomplete to Allison, Geronimo, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference 15 yards to the WISCONSIN37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
96.0%
Aaron Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
96.0%
Aaron Bailey pass intercepted, touchback. Peniel Jean return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5696% → 96%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
96.0%
Corey Clement run for 7 yds to the Wisc 9Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+4
96.0%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 11Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 12
OWN 11
-1
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 10Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 10
-1
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:08
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q2 2:14
Melvin Gordon run for 30 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q4 2:53
Donovonn Young run for 1 yd for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com