Try the model
PUR

Purdue 38 at Illinois 27

ILL
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:59: Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 80 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK) — PUR win probability +14.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:07: Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 6 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK) — ILL win probability +18.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 3:51: Austin Appleby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK) — PUR win probability +13.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:39: Donovonn Young run for 2 yds for a TD, (David Reisner MISSED) — ILL win probability +18.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:39: Austin Appleby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK) — PUR win probability +14.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5PUR made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:14PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:29PUR 4th & 1 at ILL 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−1.0
    72% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−3.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:32ILL 4th & 2 at PUR 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−0.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−3.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:00ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:43PUR 4th & 1 at ILL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−2.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:06PUR 4th & 3 at ILL 3, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:42ILL 4th & 11 at PUR 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:15PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.7
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:23ILL 4th & 2 at PUR 13, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.9%−1.9
    85% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−9.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:58PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 31, up 11
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:33ILL 4th & 4 at PUR 4, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−3.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−6.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:49PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 12, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PUR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:18ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:07PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:52ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:58PUR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:59PUR Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:07ILL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:51PUR Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:39PUR Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2928% → 28%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
72.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Trae Hart for 12 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
72.0%
Akeem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
71.9%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Akeem HuntSimilar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
71.9%
Akeem Hunt run for no gain to the Prdue 40Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-3
71.9%
Thomas Meadows punt for 45 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 3:4072% → 74%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
71.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 9 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 1
OWN 21
0
71.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+5
71.7%
PURDUE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jake Replogle) to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
71.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 6 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-2
71.8%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+30
71.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 30 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
71.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
71.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 1 yd to the Prdue 39Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+9
71.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Jon Davis for 9 yds to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
71.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 17 yds to the Prdue 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
73.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Tyler White for 13 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0127% → 30%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
72.9%
Austin Appleby run for 13 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
72.6%
Akeem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+8
72.5%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
50
+6
72.4%
Akeem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+44
69.6%
Raheem Mostert run for 44 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:0671% → 74%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
70.6%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
70.6%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+12
70.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Jon Davis for 12 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+41
71.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 41 yds to the Prdue 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
71.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 12 yds to the Prdue 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
71.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Tyler WhiteSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5DOWNS
14 plays · 71 yds · 7:1627% → 27%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
73.4%
Akeem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Prdue 12Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+2
73.4%
Akeem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Prdue 14Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+11
73.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 11 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.4%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Akeem Hunt for 9 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-3
72.5%
Austin Appleby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 23 Austin Appleby fumbled, recovered by Prdue Austin ApplebySimilar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+25
73.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Justin Sinz for 25 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
72.3%
Raheem Mostert run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
50
+2
72.1%
Akeem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+17
72.3%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 17 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
71.5%
Akeem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
71.3%
Akeem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+2
72.0%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 2 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
72.6%
Keyante Green run for no gain to the Illin 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:5074% → 74%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+47
74.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 47 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
75.5%
Jon Davis run for 3 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+5
75.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 5 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
75.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
74.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Martize BarrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 1:2927% → 36%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
73.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
72.5%
Raheem Mostert run for 2 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
72.7%
Akeem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Prdue 46Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+54
64.5%
Akeem Hunt run for 54 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4868% → 66%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
68.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for a loss of 10 yards to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 20
OWN 17
+4
67.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+9
66.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 9 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+1
65.6%
Justin DuVernois punt for 48 yds , Danny Anthrop returns for 1 yd to the Prdue 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9DOWNS
18 plays · 74 yds · 6:4436% → 44%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
64.4%
Akeem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+1
62.9%
Akeem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Prdue 32Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+7
63.4%
Akeem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
62.3%
Akeem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Prdue 46Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+3
61.4%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Keyante Green for 3 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
60.9%
Akeem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
60.5%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Gabe HolmesSimilar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+6
60.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to B.J. Knauf for 6 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+3
62.0%
Austin Appleby run for 3 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
60.0%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Akeem HuntSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+12
60.0%
Akeem Hunt run for 12 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
57.6%
Akeem Hunt run for 24 yds to the Illin 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
57.3%
Akeem Hunt run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 8Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
56.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Austin Appleby for 7 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
58.3%
Keyante Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 3Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
56.4%
Paul Griggs 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:0760% → 55%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
60.0%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+24
58.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 9 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Roughing Passer (Ryan Russell) to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
62.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Pat Flavin) to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+4
59.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 4 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
58.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Jon DavisSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
57.2%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
55.0%
Justin DuVernois punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Frankie Williams at the Prdue 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2244% → 42%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
55.9%
Akeem Hunt run for no gain to the Prdue 14Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
56.4%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+7
57.4%
Austin Appleby run for 7 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
57.8%
Thomas Meadows punt for 38 yds, downed at the Illin 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:1759% → 61%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+47
58.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 47 yds to the Prdue 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
60.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-7
60.8%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 19 Josh Ferguson fumbled, recovered by PrdueSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:4445% → 59%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
55.1%
Akeem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Prdue 20Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+80
40.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 80 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD
14 plays · 62 yds · 3:3140% → 59%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
39.9%
Wes Lunt sacked by Ra'Zahn Howard for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+20
37.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 20 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
41.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Donovonn Young for no gain to the Prdue 48Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
40.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Donovonn Young for 9 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
40.6%
Donovonn Young run for 2 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
40.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 2 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
41.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 4 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+8
40.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 8 yds to the Prdue 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
41.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
41.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 9 yds to the Prdue 14Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+7
39.5%
Donovonn Young run for 7 yds to the Prdue 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
40.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Donovonn Young for 1 yd to the Prdue 6Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
59.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 6 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0849% → 74%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.9%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Akeem Hunt for 4 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
49.4%
Akeem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
47.9%
Akeem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
47.1%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+62
47.6%
Austin Appleby run for 62 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.4%
Austin Appleby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:5632% → 51%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
31.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 7 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
32.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Martize BarrSimilar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+7
31.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 7 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
31.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 19 yds to the Prdue 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
32.6%
PURDUE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Frankie Williams) to the Prdue 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
32.4%
Donovonn Young run for 4 yds to the Prdue 2Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
51.0%
Donovonn Young run for 2 yds for a TD, (David Reisner MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4959% → 82%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Akeem Hunt for 7 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
38.7%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Akeem Hunt for 2 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+53
38.3%
Keyante Green run for 53 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
33.1%
Akeem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
32.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Gabe Holmes for 9 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.2%
Austin Appleby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19MISSED FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 5:0421% → 16%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
21.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 7 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-1
21.8%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+7
20.2%
Josh Ferguson run for 7 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
19.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 8 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
21.2%
Donovonn Young run for 3 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
20.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 3 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+18
20.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 18 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
19.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Donovonn YoungSimilar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-11
19.0%
Wes Lunt sacked by Ryan Russell for a loss of 11 yards to the Prdue 44Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 21
OPP 44
+23
16.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 23 yds to the Prdue 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
19.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
18.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 8 yds to the Prdue 13Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
0
17.8%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Prdue 13Similar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
16.3%
David Reisner 30 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ryan WatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1787% → 90%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
12.8%
Akeem Hunt run for no gain to the Prdue 22Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
12.3%
Akeem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+3
11.1%
Akeem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+5
10.3%
Thomas Meadows punt for 37 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 5 yds to the Illin 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:1510% → 8%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
10.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 5 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Face Mask (17 yards) (Antoine Lewis) to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
11.5%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Frankie Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the Prdue 46Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+7
8.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Donovonn Young for 7 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+30
10.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Martize Barr for 30 yds to the Prdue 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
11.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
11.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Donovonn Young for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 10Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
9.7%
Reilly O'Toole run for 6 yds to the Prdue 4Similar
Q4 3:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
8.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3193% → 96%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
7.5%
Akeem Hunt run for no gain to the Prdue 4Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+9
6.1%
Akeem Hunt run for 9 yds to the Prdue 13Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 1
OWN 13
-1
5.8%
Akeem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 12Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
3.8%
Thomas Meadows punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23INT
5 plays · 46 yds · 0:343% → 4%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
3.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
3.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 7 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+11
3.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Martize Barr for 11 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
3.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Martize Barr for 28 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
4.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass intercepted, touchback. Landon Feichter return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 1:0796% → 97%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 18Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-1
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:07
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 6 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)
+18.7
TD · Q3 1:39
Donovonn Young run for 2 yds for a TD, (David Reisner MISSED)
+18.5
TD · Q3 9:59
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 80 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)
-14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com