Try the model
ILL

Illinois 14 at Nebraska 45

NEB
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:46 · Reilly O'Toole pass intercepted Daniel Davie return for 17 yds to the Neb 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Pregame prior+7.7Home team on offense+29.3Score differential+21.4Garbage-time factor+7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.2Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:21: Ameer Abdullah run for 8 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +2.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:52: Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +3.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:43: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 63 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +4.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:27: Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 58 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK) — ILL win probability +3.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:56: Imani Cross run for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 7ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 2:11ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 2:48NEB 4th & 11 at ILL 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−2.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:54ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:03NEB 4th & 10 at ILL 37, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    91.9%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:27ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:30ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:08NEB 4th & 21 at NEB 44, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:59ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 44, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:05NEB 4th & 2 at ILL 43, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:50ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:26NEB 4th & 8 at NEB 35, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:46ILL 4th & 9 at NEB 28, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:04NEB 4th & 22 at ILL 31, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:26ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 29, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:45NEB 4th & 13 at ILL 30, up 31
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:27NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:24ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:21NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:52NEB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:43NEB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:27ILL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:56NEB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:58NEB Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2391% → 91%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
90.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for 21 yds to the Neb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
90.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for 8 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+15
90.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 15 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
90.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+15
90.5%
Imani Cross run for 15 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
90.5%
Ameer Abdullah run for 4 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
90.6%
Ameer Abdullah run for 12 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 0:5410% → 10%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
90.5%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-10
90.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+36
90.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 36 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
89.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 41 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4190% → 89%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
89.9%
Ameer Abdullah run for 28 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
89.9%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 20
OPP 47
-1
89.8%
Imani Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 21
OPP 48
+1
89.5%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 20
OPP 47
+14
89.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted T.J. Neal return for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4INT
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:0111% → 12%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
50
+27
89.0%
Mike Dudek run for 27 yds to the Neb 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
88.9%
Jon Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 24Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
88.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+22
88.7%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 22 yds to the Neb 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Neb 1Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
88.2%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 4Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
88.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass intercepted, touchback. Daniel Davie return for no gainSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
88.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass intercepted, touchback. Daniel Davie return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:1889% → 88%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
88.6%
Ameer Abdullah run for 5 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
88.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
88.4%
Ameer Abdullah run for 9 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+4
88.4%
Ameer Abdullah run for 4 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
88.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the Neb 46Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+12
88.1%
Imani Cross run for 12 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
88.2%
Imani Cross run for 12 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
88.3%
Imani Cross run for 8 yds to the Illin 22 Imani Cross fumbled, forced by Mason Monheim, recovered by Illin Eaton SpenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4913% → 13%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
87.2%
Donovonn Young run for 2 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+2
86.8%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 2 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
86.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
87.0%
Justin DuVernois punt for 74 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:4487% → 89%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
87.2%
Ameer Abdullah run for 7 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
87.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for 4 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
86.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 30Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+9
86.6%
Ameer Abdullah run for 9 yds to the Neb 39Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+25
86.9%
Imani Cross run for 10 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
87.1%
Imani Cross run for 5 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+10
87.2%
Imani Cross run for 10 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
87.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for 13 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
87.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q2 13:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
89.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for 8 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:0012% → 12%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 11 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
88.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Martize Barr for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-4
87.9%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Nate Gerry and Randy Gregory for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 35Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+51
88.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass intercepted Nate Gerry return for 54 yds to the NEBRASKA 11 ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (-3 Yards) to the Illin 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:5889% → 92%
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
89.0%
Imani Cross run for no gain to the Illin 2Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
89.0%
Imani Cross run for no gain to the Illin 2Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.0%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:439% → 9%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.2%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
91.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11TD
1 play · 63 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
95.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 63 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:545% → 9%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.2%
Donovonn Young run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
94.9%
Donovonn Young run for 4 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
94.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 8 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
90.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 58 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:2792% → 94%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
91.5%
Ameer Abdullah run for 4 yds to the Neb 22Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+21
91.5%
Ameer Abdullah run for 21 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
91.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+4
91.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+20
91.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 20 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
92.0%
Terrell Newby run for 8 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+13
92.0%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (10 Yards) to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
92.0%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 12Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
92.2%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Illin 12Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 11
OPP 12
0
92.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+29
93.8%
Drew Brown 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:517% → 7%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.9%
O'Toole, Reilly pass incomplete to Ferguson, Josh, PENALTY NEBRASKA pass interference (Roach, Trevor) 0 yards to the ILLINOIS26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
92.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 9 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-2
92.2%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-7
92.7%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Randy Gregory for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+1
93.2%
Justin DuVernois punt for 42 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 1 yd to the Neb 27 NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Block (Mauro Bondi) to the Neb 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:3794% → 93%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
94.4%
Ameer Abdullah run for 20 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
93.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 20 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
94.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
93.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
93.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+54
93.4%
Drew Brown 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
92.6%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:217% → 7%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
93.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 12 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
92.7%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 3 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
92.7%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
92.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
93.1%
Justin DuVernois punt for 25 yds, downed at the Neb 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:0493% → 98%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
93.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the Neb 33Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
93.6%
Imani Cross run for 4 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+11
93.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 11 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
94.9%
Imani Cross run for 4 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
95.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
94.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 5 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
95.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 9 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+2
95.4%
Imani Cross run for 2 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
95.5%
Imani Cross run for 4 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+17
95.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 17 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
95.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Illin 4Similar
Q3 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.8%
Imani Cross run for 4 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:203% → 2%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.6%
Justin DuVernois punt for 33 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 2 yds to the Neb 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0798% → 98%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
97.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for 11 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
97.9%
Imani Cross run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 48Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
97.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 13
OPP 48
-8
97.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Kenny Nelson for a loss of 8 yards to the Neb 44Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 21
OWN 44
0
97.9%
Sam Foltz punt for 32 yds, downed at the Illin 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 2:462% → 2%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
97.8%
Donovonn Young run for 3 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
97.9%
Reilly O'Toole run for 1 yd to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+7
98.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 7 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
98.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+14
98.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Martize Barr for 14 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
98.0%
Donovonn Young run for 3 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
98.1%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Randy Gregory for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+5
98.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 5 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
98.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
98.3%
Justin DuVernois punt for 32 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:3199% → 99%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
98.6%
Imani Cross run for 7 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+6
98.7%
Imani Cross run for 6 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
98.7%
Imani Cross run for 5 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-2
98.8%
Imani Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 40Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+9
98.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 9 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
98.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 6 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
98.9%
Imani Cross run for 2 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
98.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Imani CrossSimilar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
98.9%
Sam Foltz punt for 32 yds, downed at the Illin 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
98.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Illin 12Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+4
99.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 4 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
99.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Martize BarrSimilar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
99.0%
Justin DuVernois punt for 51 yds, downed at the Neb 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:0499% → 99%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
99.0%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Neb 23Similar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 20
OWN 23
-5
99.0%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Neb 18Similar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 25
OWN 18
+5
98.9%
Imani Cross run for 5 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+11
99.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 11 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+1
99.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 1 yd to the Neb 35Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Sam Foltz punt for 49 yds, fair catch by TEAM at the Illin 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25INT
11 plays · 56 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Martize BarrSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+15
99.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 15 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
99.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Donovonn Young for 7 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+14
99.0%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
99.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+24
99.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 24 yds to the Neb 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
98.7%
Reilly O'Toole run for 1 yd to the Neb 28Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
98.7%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
98.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Donovonn YoungSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+17
98.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass intercepted Daniel Davie return for 17 yds to the Neb 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:42100% → 100%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.5%
Terrell Newby run for 11 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
99.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 22 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.6%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
99.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 6 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
99.6%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
99.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
99.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Taariq AllenSimilar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-15
99.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 22
OPP 31
0
99.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Taariq AllenSimilar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 22
OPP 31
+25
99.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 25 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.9%
Justin DuVernois punt for 40 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 9 yds to the Neb 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 28DOWNS
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Jordan Nelson run for 3 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+12
99.9%
Jordan Nelson run for 12 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
99.9%
Jordan Nelson run for 18 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
99.9%
Jordan Nelson run for 4 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-2
100.0%
Jordan Nelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-5
100.0%
Ryker Fyfe sacked by Earnest Thomas III for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+11
99.9%
Ryker Fyfe run for 11 yds to the Illin 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
100.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 14 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+28
100.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 28 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
100.0%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Zaire Anderson for a loss of 9 yards to the Neb 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:43
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 63 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q2 7:27
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 58 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)
-3.9
TD · Q2 9:52
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com