Try the model
TXST

Texas State 35 at Illinois 42

ILL
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:37 · Justin DuVernois punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Pregame prior+10.7Home team on offense−2.6Garbage-time factor−1.6Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:50: Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 33 yds for a TD, (Wes Lunt failed ) — ILL win probability +18.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:18: Donovonn Young run for 3 yds for a TD, (Wes Lunt failed ) — ILL win probability +10.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:26: Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 12 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK) — TXST win probability +19.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:42: Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 7 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK) — ILL win probability +31.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:12: Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 9 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK) — TXST win probability +14.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:10TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:14ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:56ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:35TXST 4th & 3 at ILL 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:40ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 25, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00TXST 4th & 22 at TXST 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:35ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 20, down 8
    Close callPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:46TXST 4th & 4 at ILL 28, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:59ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 47, down 8
    Close callPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:01TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−2.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:12TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 32, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:31TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:37ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:49TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−2.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:45ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 42, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:48TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:55TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:08ILL 4th & 2 at TXST 2, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.8%−3.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−18.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:16TXST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:38TXST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:17TXST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:14ILL Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:26TXST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:42ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:41ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:12TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
80.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 75 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3420% → 20%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.4%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
80.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 4 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
80.3%
Will Johnson punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5480% → 80%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
80.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 1 yd to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
80.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Jon DavisSimilar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
80.1%
Justin DuVernois punt for 34 yds, downed at the TexSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:4220% → 22%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
80.0%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+18
79.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 18 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
79.7%
Tyler Jones run for 10 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
79.5%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
79.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+23
79.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 23 yds to the Illin 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.3%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the Illin 4Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1379% → 78%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.5%
Donovonn Young run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
78.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
78.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 2 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
77.7%
Justin DuVernois punt for 42 yds, downed at the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:1422% → 28%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
78.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 11 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
77.7%
Robert Lowe run for 18 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
77.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 6 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
77.1%
Terrence Franks run for 3 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-2
76.9%
Terrence Franks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+8
77.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 8 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
76.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley MillerSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
76.5%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+6
76.6%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
76.0%
Terrence Franks run for 3 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
72.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 11 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5873% → 72%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Michael Heitz) to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
73.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
72.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
72.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Justin DuVernois punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:3128% → 28%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
72.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
71.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
71.6%
Robert Lowe run for 10 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
70.8%
Tyler Jones sacked by Dawuane Smoot for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+2
71.2%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 13
OWN 46
-9
70.9%
Tyler Jones sacked by Dawuane Smoot for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 22
OWN 37
0
71.8%
Will Johnson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1970% → 69%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
70.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+5
70.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 5 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
69.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Jon DavisSimilar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
68.9%
Justin DuVernois punt for 49 yds, downed at the TexSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:3431% → 36%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
69.1%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-1
68.1%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+4
67.9%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
67.5%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
67.1%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+9
67.1%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
65.9%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+5
65.3%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
64.8%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 35Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+9
65.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 9 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-2
63.5%
Terrence Franks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
64.2%
Jason Dann 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4165% → 63%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
65.2%
Josh Ferguson run for 12 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
66.0%
Donovonn Young run for 5 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
64.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
64.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Matt LaCosse, broken up by David MayoSimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
63.4%
Justin DuVernois punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
16 plays · 90 yds · 4:3537% → 47%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
62.6%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+6
61.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 6 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
61.6%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
61.0%
C.J. Best run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+20
59.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
50
+3
57.4%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
57.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Terrence FranksSimilar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+5
57.4%
Jones, Tyler pass incomplete to Gunter, Brice, PENALTY ILLINOIS offside (Ward, Jihad) 5 yards to the ILLINOIS42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+27
56.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 27 yds to the Illin 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
56.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for no gain to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
55.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Collin Fissell) to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 15
OPP 20
-1
55.4%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 16
OPP 21
+19
63.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 15 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Earnest Thomas III) to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
62.2%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.6%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:5249% → 61%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Martize Barr for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
47.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Martize Barr for 8 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
48.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Donovonn Young for 24 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
50.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Martize Barr for 24 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
51.4%
Lunt, Wes pass incomplete to Hardee, Justin, PENALTY TEXSTATE pass interference (Mims, David) 13 yards to the TEXSTATE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:1046% → 51%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.8%
Robert Lowe run for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
52.5%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
51.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 13 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
49.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
49.2%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:5348% → 47%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.8%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
51.4%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
51.7%
Tyler Jones sacked by Jihad Ward and Austin Teitsma for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+40
53.4%
Will Johnson punt for 54 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 40 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
71.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 33 yds for a TD, (Wes Lunt failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2237% → 36%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.1%
Terrence Franks run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
62.9%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
63.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 3 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
64.0%
Will Johnson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Darius Mosely at the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 1:4765% → 80%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
64.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Donovonn Young for 8 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+1
67.3%
Donovonn Young run for 1 yd to the Illin 40Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+4
66.1%
Donovonn Young run for 4 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
66.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 11 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+30
67.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 30 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
68.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+12
68.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 12 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.6%
Donovonn Young run for 3 yds for a TD, (Wes Lunt failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3524% → 23%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
75.9%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
76.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+5
77.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 5 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
77.4%
Will Johnson punt for 46 yds , Darius Mosely returns for no gain to the Illin 33 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:2878% → 79%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
77.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 2 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
77.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 3 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+48
78.5%
Wes Lunt pass intercepted Colby Targun return for 48 yds to the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:2429% → 49%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
70.6%
Terrence Franks run for 1 yd to the Illin 12Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
50.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 12 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:4558% → 57%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.5%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
57.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Martize BarrSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
55.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 11 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
58.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-3
60.3%
Donovonn Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+7
55.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Donovonn Young for 7 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
56.8%
Justin DuVernois punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:4146% → 46%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
54.3%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+8
53.9%
Robert Lowe run for 8 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
53.3%
Robert Lowe run for 22 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
49.3%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 45 Tyler Jones fumbled, recovered by TexSt Collin FissellSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+5
51.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 7
50
-4
49.3%
Tyler Jones sacked by DeJazz Woods and Mason Monheim for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
54.2%
Will Johnson punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5953% → 53%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.2%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
53.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
51.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 10 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
53.1%
Wes Lunt sacked by Kris Petersen for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+12
51.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 12 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
55.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
53.0%
Justin DuVernois punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:4650% → 53%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
50.1%
Tyler Jones run for 9 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
47.6%
Terrence Franks run for 2 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
48.4%
Franks, Terrence rush for 2 yards to the TEXSTATE33, PENALTY TEXSTATE holding (Sarabia, Brandon) 10 yards to the TEXSTATE21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 20
OWN 21
-1
49.5%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 20Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 21
OWN 20
+9
49.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 9 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 12
OWN 29
-5
50.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+12
48.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 12 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
47.3%
Will Johnson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Darius Mosely at the Illin 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:5948% → 81%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
47.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 8 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+23
50.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 23 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
53.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 4 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+22
50.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 22 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
52.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the TexSt 20Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+4
52.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Donovonn Young for 4 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
49.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Mike Dudek, broken up by Colby TargunSimilar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+5
46.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Running Into Kicker (David Mims) to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
52.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 5 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
51.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-5
48.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Matt LaCosse) to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
80.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 7 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:3128% → 24%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
72.0%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+18
74.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 18 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
67.7%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
68.9%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
71.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 10
OPP 48
-5
73.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
75.7%
Will Johnson punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28FG
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:3981% → 93%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
80.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 10 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+48
82.2%
Josh Ferguson run for 48 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
88.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 8 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+3
88.3%
Donovonn Young run for 3 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
88.6%
Donovonn Young run for no gain to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
88.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
88.5%
Donovonn Young run for 3 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
93.1%
David Reisner 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29INT TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:1911% → 3%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
89.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 14 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+45
97.2%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted for a TD V'Angelo Bentley return for 45 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 30TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:183% → 18%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
97.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 16 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben Ijah, broken up by Darius MoselySimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
97.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley Miller, broken up by Zepheniah GrimesSimilar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+38
97.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 38 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
96.6%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
96.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+17
97.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 17 yds to the Illin 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
96.1%
Jones, Tyler pass complete to Ijah, Ben for 4 yards to the ILLINOIS0, PENALTY TEXSTATE illegal formation 5 yards to the ILLINOIS9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
96.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. Best, broken up by Zane PettySimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
81.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 9 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 31END OF GAME
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:4796% → 97%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
96.3%
Jon Davis run for 5 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+6
96.9%
Jon Davis run for 6 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
97.1%
Jon Davis run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:42
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 7 yds for a TD, (David Reisner KICK)
+31.7
TD · Q3 6:26
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 12 yds for a TD, (Jason Dann KICK)
-19.9
TD · Q3 12:50
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 33 yds for a TD, (Wes Lunt failed )
+18
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com