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YSU

Youngstown State 17 at Illinois 28

ILL
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadYSU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreYSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:30 · Justin DuVernois punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Christian Bryan at the YngSt 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+28.1Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 9:18: Joey Cejudo 36 yd FG GOOD — YSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: YSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:58: Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 8 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +13.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:57: Martin Ruiz 2 Yd Run (Dante Nania Run for Two-Point Conversion) — YSU win probability +34.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: YSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:50: Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 15 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +25.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:33: Wes Lunt pass complete to Martize Barr for 29 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +6.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7YSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
  1. Q1 14:30ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:23YSU 4th & 17 at ILL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:58ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:31YSU 4th & 6 at YSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:31ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00YSU 4th & 5 at ILL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:44YSU 4th & 10 at ILL 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:22YSU 4th & 4 at YSU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:17ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:29YSU 4th & 7 at YSU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:52ILL 4th & 1 at midfield, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00YSU 4th & 10 at ILL 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:00YSU 4th & 1 at ILL 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%−2.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−10.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:18YSU 4th & 8 at ILL 19, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−8.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:29ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−3.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:24YSU 4th & 4 at ILL 44, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−4.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:44ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 38, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−3.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:14YSU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.0 ptsPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−7.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:28YSU 4th & 6 at YSU 39, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−1.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:54YSU 4th & 2 at YSU 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−0.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:24YSU 4th & 5 at ILL 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4YSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:15ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 13:58ILL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:57YSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    50.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    50.8%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:50ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:33ILL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1578% → 78%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
78.2%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
78.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 1 yd to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 14:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
78.1%
Justin DuVernois punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Christian Bryan at the YngSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:5722% → 23%
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
78.1%
Martin Ruiz run for 3 yds to the YngSt 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+10
78.1%
Martin Ruiz run for 10 yds to the YngSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
78.0%
Martin Ruiz run for 2 yds to the YngSt 39Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+10
77.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the YngSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
77.5%
Martin Ruiz run for no gain to the YngSt 49Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
77.3%
Dante Nania run for 11 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
77.1%
Martin Ruiz run for no gain to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
76.8%
Andre Stubbs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 12
OPP 42
-5
76.9%
Dante Nania sacked by Earnest Thomas III for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
77.1%
Joey Cejudo punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1077% → 77%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
77.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Martize Barr for 11 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
76.9%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
76.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+6
76.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 6 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
76.5%
Justin DuVernois punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Christian Bryan at the YngSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0924% → 24%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.3%
Dante Nania pass complete to Jody Webb for 2 yds to the YngSt 27Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
76.3%
Martin Ruiz run for 10 yds to the YngSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
75.9%
Martin Ruiz run for 2 yds to the YngSt 39Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
75.5%
Martin Ruiz run for 2 yds to the YngSt 41Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
75.4%
Dante Nania pass incomplete to Andrew WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
75.9%
Joey Cejudo punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4276% → 75%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
75.9%
Donovonn Young run for 1 yd to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
75.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Donovonn Young for no gain to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
75.4%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 9
OWN 23
+11
75.2%
Justin DuVernois punt for 36 yds , Christian Bryan returns for 11 yds to the Illin 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:1026% → 28%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
74.5%
YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, Illegal Shift (Dante Nania) to the YngSt 47Similar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
74.9%
Martin Ruiz run for no gain to the YngSt 47Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
74.8%
Martin Ruiz run for no gain to the YngSt 47Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+21
75.0%
Dante Nania pass complete to Jelani Berassa for 1 yd to the Illin 48 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jarrod Clements) to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
73.8%
Dante Nania pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
73.3%
Dante Nania pass complete to Martin Ruiz for 6 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
73.5%
Martin Ruiz run for 6 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
72.9%
Martin Ruiz run for 1 yd to the Illin 19Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+4
72.6%
Jody Webb run for 4 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
72.8%
Martin Ruiz run for no gain to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
72.2%
Joey Cejudo 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:3075% → 77%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
74.8%
YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tanner Garry) to the YngSt 28Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+4
74.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 4 yds to the YngSt 24Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 1
OPP 24
-2
74.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Jon Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the YngSt 26Similar
Q2 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
77.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Jon Davis for 8 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+18
77.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Jon Davis for 18 yds to the YngSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2124% → 24%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
75.9%
Dante Nania pass complete to Jelani Berassa for 16 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
74.9%
Martin Ruiz run for 2 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
74.8%
Dante Nania run for no gain to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-2
75.1%
Martin Ruiz run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
76.2%
Joey Cejudo punt for 41 yds, downed at the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:2475% → 77%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
75.2%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
75.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+14
74.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 14 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+42
75.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 42 yds to the YngSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
76.9%
Donovonn Young run for 2 yds to the YngSt 34Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+9
77.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 9 yds to the YngSt 28 Josh Ferguson fumbled, recovered by YngSt Nate DortchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4825% → 24%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
75.4%
Andre Stubbs run for 4 yds to the YngSt 32Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
75.1%
Martin Ruiz run for 5 yds to the YngSt 37Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-3
74.6%
Martin Ruiz run for a loss of 3 yards to the YngSt 34Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
76.3%
Joey Cejudo punt for 35 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for no gain to the Illin 34 V'Angelo Bentley fumbled, recovered by Illin V'Angelo BentleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4476% → 75%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
75.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-3
76.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Shift (Wes Lunt) to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
75.5%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
74.9%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
74.5%
Justin DuVernois punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Christian Bryan at the YngSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4225% → 22%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
75.5%
Dante Nania pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
75.6%
Martin Ruiz run for 4 yds to the YngSt 28Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
75.9%
Dante Nania pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+9
78.4%
Joey Cejudo punt for 40 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 9 yds to the Illin 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2777% → 76%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
76.8%
Josh Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
77.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
76.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 1
50
0
76.2%
Justin DuVernois punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Christian Bryan at the YngSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 14END OF HALF
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:3023% → 30%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
77.5%
Martin Ruiz run for 5 yds to the YngSt 17Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+8
77.4%
Jody Webb run for 8 yds to the YngSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.1%
Jody Webb run for 5 yds to the YngSt 30Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
76.9%
Jody Webb run for 5 yds to the YngSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
76.8%
Dante Nania sacked by Austin Teitsma and Jarrod Clements for a loss of 6 yards to the YngSt 29Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+4
77.5%
Jody Webb run for 4 yds to the YngSt 33Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+54
77.8%
Dante Nania pass complete to Jody Webb for 54 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
72.0%
YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the Illin 18Similar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+3
72.5%
Martin Ruiz run for 3 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 12
OPP 15
0
72.0%
Dante Nania pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 12
OPP 15
-5
73.9%
YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (TEAM) to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+7
75.2%
Dante Nania run for 7 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+29
70.3%
Joey Cejudo 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 15FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 5:3229% → 40%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
71.3%
Andre Stubbs run for 4 yds to the YngSt 31Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
70.7%
Martin Ruiz run for 3 yds to the YngSt 34Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+4
70.9%
Martin Ruiz run for 4 yds to the YngSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+31
70.0%
Martin Ruiz run for 31 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
66.9%
Martin Ruiz run for 4 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+4
66.5%
Ryan Moore run for 4 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+1
67.5%
Ryan Moore run for 1 yd to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+1
68.7%
Ryan Moore run for 1 yd to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
65.8%
Ryan Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+3
66.0%
Demond Hymes run for 3 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
67.1%
Dante Nania pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
60.0%
Joey Cejudo 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4462% → 59%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.1%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
61.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
60.0%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+1
59.3%
Justin DuVernois punt for 36 yds , Christian Bryan returns for 1 yd to the YngSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4642% → 43%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
57.7%
Dante Nania run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
50
+4
56.3%
Martin Ruiz run for 4 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
56.3%
Martin Ruiz run for 2 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
56.8%
Dante Nania pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
56.8%
Joey Cejudo punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Darius Mosely at the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:1760% → 56%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
59.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 8 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+8
60.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 8 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
60.3%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+5
58.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 5 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+11
57.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 11 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
60.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 3 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
62.6%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
59.2%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:52
4TH & 7
OWN 42
-4
57.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) to the Illin 38Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
56.2%
Ryan Frain punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Christian Bryan at the YngSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:2345% → 50%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
54.9%
Dante Nania pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
55.4%
Martin Ruiz run for 1 yd to the YngSt 29Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+12
56.2%
Dante Nania run for 12 yds to the YngSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
51.5%
Dante Nania run for 8 yds to the YngSt 49Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
48.1%
Martin Ruiz run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 1
50
0
48.1%
Martin Ruiz run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:14
4TH & 1
50
0
50.2%
Joey Cejudo punt blocked by Joe Fotu blocked by Joe FotuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:1063% → 81%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
63.4%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
63.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Donovonn Young for 3 yds to the YngSt 32Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+11
61.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 11 yds to the YngSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
63.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 13 yds to the YngSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
63.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Matt LaCosseSimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
81.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 8 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5622% → 63%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.7%
Dante Nania pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
77.9%
Dante Nania run for 9 yds to the YngSt 34Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
76.5%
Martin Ruiz run for 6 yds to the YngSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
75.6%
Dante Nania sacked by Carroll Phillips for a loss of 6 yards to the YngSt 34Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+61
78.0%
Dante Nania pass complete to Andrew Williams for 61 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
71.4%
Martin Ruiz run for 3 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.8%
Martin Ruiz 2 Yd Run (Dante Nania Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 1:4047% → 83%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
47.4%
Donovonn Young run for 4 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+49
48.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 49 yds to the YngSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
55.9%
Donovonn Young run for 1 yd to the YngSt 25Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+6
55.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Donovonn Young for 6 yds to the YngSt 19Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
52.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 4 yds to the YngSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
82.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 15 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1721% → 19%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
78.9%
Ryan Moore run for 1 yd to the YngSt 36Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
78.8%
Dante Nania run for no gain to the YngSt 36Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+3
80.2%
Dante Nania pass complete to Nate Adams for 3 yds to the YngSt 39Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+5
81.1%
Joey Cejudo punt for 33 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 5 yds to the Illin 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 3:4982% → 97%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
82.4%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
82.3%
Donovonn Young run for 9 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+20
84.8%
Donovonn Young run for 20 yds to the YngSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
86.5%
Donovonn Young run for no gain to the YngSt 38Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-10
89.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jon Davis) to the YngSt 48Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 20
OPP 48
-4
89.3%
Wes Lunt sacked by Derek Rivers for a loss of 4 yards to the YngSt 46 Wes Lunt fumbled, recovered by Illin Ted Karras , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 18
OPP 46
+20
88.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 20 yds to the YngSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
91.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the YngSt 23Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-1
92.0%
Donovonn Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the YngSt 24Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-5
90.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the YngSt 29Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+29
97.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Martize Barr for 29 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:093% → 3%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.5%
YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the YngSt 20Similar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
97.6%
Dante Nania pass complete to Andre Stubbs for 9 yds to the YngSt 29Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
97.1%
Dante Nania pass complete to Jelani Berassa for 13 yds to the YngSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
97.1%
Dante Nania pass complete to Andre Stubbs for 3 yds to the YngSt 45Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
97.3%
Dante Nania pass complete to Jelani Berassa for 4 yds to the YngSt 49Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+5
97.4%
Martin Ruiz run for 5 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.9%
Dante Nania pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
97.0%
Dante Nania run for 5 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
97.0%
Dante Nania pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
97.2%
Dante Nania pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:57
Martin Ruiz 2 Yd Run (Dante Nania Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-34.5
TD · Q4 8:50
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 15 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
+25.6
TD · Q4 13:58
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 8 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
+13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com