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BAY

Baylor 48 at Texas Tech 46

TTU
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-6.1TTU 7.6%Chris Callahan 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 48 - HOME 40 · Q4 3:44
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:44 · Chris Callahan 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 208Pregame prior−3.8Home team on offense−30.1Score differential−7.7Garbage-time factor−13.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:38: Devin Lauderdale 48 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Ryan Bustin Kick) — TTU win probability +6.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:39: Bradley Marquez 40 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Ryan Bustin Kick) — TTU win probability +8.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:13: DeAndre Washington 49 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TTU win probability +21.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 3:44: Chris Callahan 36 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +6.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:42: Bradley Marquez 40 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — TTU win probability +33.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:26TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:11BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:25TTU 4th & 15 at TTU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:17BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:22TTU 4th & 2 at BAY 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:50BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:33BAY 4th & 7 at TTU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    85.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:10TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:21TTU 4th & 5 at BAY 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:34TTU 4th & 13 at BAY 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:01BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:44TTU 4th & 7 at BAY 8, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:18BAY 4th & 4 at TTU 21, up 22
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:14BAY 4th & 11 at TTU 40, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:18BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:44BAY 4th & 10 at TTU 19, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−12.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 2:44BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:12TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:50BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:58BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:32TTU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:10BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:32BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:44BAY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:38TTU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:39TTU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:13TTU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:42TTU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    30.0%−1.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 1:297% → 8%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
7.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q1 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shawn Oakman) to the TexTc 30Similar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+17
7.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 17 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
7.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
7.6%
Patrick Mahomes run for 2 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
7.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
7.8%
Taylor Symmank punt for 29 yds, downed at the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0992% → 91%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
7.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Shock Linwood for 13 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
8.0%
Bryce Petty run for 7 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
8.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 6 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
8.1%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
8.2%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-3
8.2%
Bryce Petty sacked by Pete Robertson for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
8.7%
Spencer Roth punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:439% → 9%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
8.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-3
8.8%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 7Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 13
OWN 7
-3
8.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-3 Yards) to the TexTc 4Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 16
OWN 4
+1
8.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the TexTc 5Similar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 15
OWN 5
0
9.3%
Taylor Symmank punt for 59 yds, downed at the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0391% → 90%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
9.4%
Antwan Goodley run for 3 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
9.3%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+4
9.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 4 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
9.8%
Spencer Roth punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:4310% → 11%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+47
9.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 47 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
10.4%
Patrick Mahomes run for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
10.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
10.7%
Patrick Mahomes run for no gain to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+7
10.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Kenny Williams for 7 yds Kenny Williams fumbled, forced by Terrell Burt, recovered by Bayl Collin BrenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3089% → 89%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
10.6%
Devin Chafin run for 8 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+3
10.5%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
10.5%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
10.4%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
10.4%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-1
11.2%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0912% → 12%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
12.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
12.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for 4 yds Justin Stockton fumbled, forced by Taylor Young, recovered by Bayl K.J. SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:2689% → 90%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
11.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Devin Chafin for 17 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
11.3%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+2
11.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 2 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+14
11.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 14 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
11.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 16 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
9.9%
Shock Linwood 8 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 60 yds · 0:1611% → 11%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+25
10.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 25 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
10.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Bradley MarquezSimilar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+14
10.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 14 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:0989% → 89%
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
10.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
10.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 8 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
10.6%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
10.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 4 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+12
10.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 12 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
10.7%
Bryce Petty sacked by Pete Robertson for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 47 Bryce Petty fumbled, forced by Pete Robertson, recovered by TexTc Pete Robertson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 0:0812% → 17%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
12.4%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the TexTc 47Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
12.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 8 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+8
12.6%
Patrick Mahomes run for 8 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
12.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+10
12.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
16.5%
Jakeem Grant 27 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Ryan Bustin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:0686% → 89%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+46
14.1%
Shock Linwood run for 46 yds to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
13.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+5
13.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
11.5%
Johnny Jefferson 4 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:1612% → 16%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
12.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
12.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 8 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 2
OWN 27
-2
12.1%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 25Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+11
11.9%
Taylor Symmank pass complete to Kenny Williams for 11 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
12.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 6 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+9
13.5%
Patrick Mahomes run for 9 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
13.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 21 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
14.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
14.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 5 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
14.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Quinton WhiteSimilar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
16.1%
Ryan Bustin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 0:2386% → 90%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
14.1%
Shock Linwood run for 19 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
10.5%
Corey Coleman 28 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:2611% → 18%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+24
10.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 24 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
11.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 8 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
11.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+34
11.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 34 yds to the Bayl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
12.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.1%
Bradley Marquez 5 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Ryan Bustin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:5884% → 89%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
15.7%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Rika Levi) to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
15.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Clay Fuller for 28 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
14.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 13 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Derrick Dixon) to the TexTc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
13.9%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the TexTc 3Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 1
OPP 3
0
14.3%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the TexTc 3Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
11.1%
Shock Linwood 3 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 3:1511% → 12%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
11.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 9 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
11.8%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+5
11.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 5 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
11.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 20 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
12.8%
Quinton White run for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
12.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+10
12.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 10 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
13.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
13.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-3
12.9%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+50
11.7%
Ryan Bustin 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
11.2%
Bryce Petty sacked by Branden Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:4688% → 86%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
12.4%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+11
12.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
12.2%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+5
12.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-5
12.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Davion Hall) to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
13.4%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
13.8%
Spencer Roth punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
13.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass intercepted Travon Blanchard return for no gain to the TexTc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
12 plays · 32 yds · 2:5888% → 95%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
12.4%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+4
12.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 4 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
12.3%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+5
12.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Pete Robertson) to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
11.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
11.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
11.9%
Bryce Petty run for 2 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
11.4%
Bryce Petty run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
11.4%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the TexTc 9Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
5.0%
Antwan Goodley 9 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:308% → 8%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
7.7%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 24Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
7.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
7.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:5294% → 99%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
5.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 16 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
5.3%
Petty, Bryce pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXASTECH personal foul (Eguavoen, Sam) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
4.7%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+10
4.8%
Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
4.4%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds to the TexTc 27 Seth Russell fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
4.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
4.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Levi NorwoodSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+27
0.8%
Levi Norwood 27 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:001% → 3%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
0.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 9 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+6
0.7%
Jakeem Grant run for 6 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+40
0.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 40 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
0.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 7 yds Dylan Cantrell fumbled, recovered by TexTcSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+6
0.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 6 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
0.8%
Patrick Mahomes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 12Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+4
0.8%
Patrick Mahomes run for 4 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
0.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Bradley MarquezSimilar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
3.1%
Ryan Bustin 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:2699% → 100%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+36
1.5%
Shock Linwood run for 36 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
1.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
1.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 3 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+3
1.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
1.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
0.5%
Chris Callahan 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 0:221% → 6%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
0.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
0.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexTc 37Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
0.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+15
0.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
7.0%
Devin Lauderdale 48 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Ryan Bustin Kick)Similar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
6.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devin Lauderdale) to the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0698% → 98%
Q3 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
2.3%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+22
2.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Clay Fuller for 22 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-14
2.1%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 14 yards to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 24
OWN 47
+3
2.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Corey Coleman for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 21
50
+10
2.1%
Seth Russell run for 10 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
2.2%
Spencer Roth punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:356% → 13%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
5.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 10 yds to the TexTc 30 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 20Similar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
5.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 1 yd to the TexTc 21Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
4.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+28
4.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Reginald Davis for 13 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Roughing Passer (Andrew Billings) to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
4.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 11 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Bradley MarquezSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
4.5%
Patrick Mahomes run for no gain to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+40
13.4%
Bradley Marquez 40 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Ryan Bustin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:1291% → 93%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.0%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
7.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
7.4%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
7.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 9 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
6.7%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
6.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
6.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
7.0%
Spencer Roth punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 30TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 1:0510% → 34%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
10.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 14 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
10.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 18 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
11.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+49
33.6%
DeAndre Washington 49 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 31FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:2078% → 92%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.3%
Seth Russell run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
20.9%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
17.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Shock Linwood for 2 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+10
18.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Levi Norwood for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
50
+10
16.5%
Seth Russell run for 10 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
16.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 11 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
15.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 7 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
13.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+1
13.3%
Seth Russell run for 1 yd to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
12.8%
Seth Russell run for no gain to the TexTc 19Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
12.7%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
13.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Gus PenningSimilar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
7.6%
Chris Callahan 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 32TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 1:3411% → 41%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
10.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 8 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
12.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 3 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
11.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
13.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Roughing Passer (Shawn Oakman) to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-15
10.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Alfredo Morales) to the TexTc 48Similar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 25
OWN 48
-5
8.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Jakeem Grant) to the TexTc 43Similar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 30
OWN 43
0
7.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Ian SadlerSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 30
OWN 43
+17
7.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 17 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+40
40.8%
Bradley Marquez 40 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 33END OF GAME
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:2989% → 93%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
10.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-2
6.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:42
Bradley Marquez 40 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+33.4
TD · Q4 8:13
DeAndre Washington 49 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+21.7
TD · Q4 11:39
Bradley Marquez 40 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Ryan Bustin Kick)
+8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com