Try the model
OKST

Oklahoma State 28 at Baylor 49

BAY
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · McLane Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:00 · Chris Callahan 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by James Castleman
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior+34.1Home team on offense+9.9Score differential+4.5Garbage-time factor+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:18: Devin Chafin run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +3.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:01: Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +3.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:57: Shock Linwood run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:44: Rennie Childs run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +6.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:00: Bryce Petty run for 21 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:49OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:57OKST 4th & 10 at BAY 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:00BAY 4th & 3 at OKST 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:08OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:27BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:04OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:00BAY 4th & 11 at OKST 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:50OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:11OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:57BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:47OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 10, down 14
    Close callPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:46OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 31, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:51BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:56BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:00BAY 4th & 2 at OKST 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:38OKST 4th & 17 at BAY 36, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:24BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:24BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:32OKST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:19BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:18BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:01OKST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:57BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:21BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:08OKST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:44OKST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:00BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:3195% → 95%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
95.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Shock Linwood for 4 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+65
94.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 65 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:355% → 5%
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
94.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Tyreek Hill for 6 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-1
94.8%
Desmond Roland run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Kip Smith punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:2595% → 95%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
94.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 26 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
94.7%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+54
94.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 54 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:275% → 5%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
94.8%
Desmond Roland run for 11 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
94.8%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
94.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
94.7%
Kip Smith punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:3795% → 95%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
94.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 8 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+7
94.7%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.7%
Bryce Petty pass intercepted Ramon Richards return for no gain to the Bayl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:485% → 6%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
94.6%
Desmond Roland run for 2 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+3
94.5%
Desmond Roland run for 3 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+34
94.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 34 yds to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
94.4%
Desmond Roland run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 6Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
94.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Terrell Burt) to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
94.4%
Desmond Roland run for 1 yd to the Bayl 1Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.6%
Desmond Roland run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
23 plays · 79 yds · 7:1394% → 95%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
93.9%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
93.8%
Bryce Petty run for no gain to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+13
93.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Devin Chafin for 13 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
93.7%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-5
93.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Kyle Fuller) to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
93.7%
Bryce Petty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+9
93.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 9 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
93.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+17
93.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 17 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
93.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+8
93.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
93.6%
Devin Chafin run for 8 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+3
93.6%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the OKSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
93.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Spencer Drango) to the OKSt 18Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 15
OPP 18
0
93.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+1
93.4%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the OKSt 17Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 14
OPP 17
+11
93.1%
Shock Linwood run for 11 yds to the OKSt 6Similar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+3
93.0%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the OKSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
93.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Jordan Feuerbacher) to the OKSt 8Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
93.2%
Bryce Petty run for 2 yds to the OKSt 6Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
93.1%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the OKSt 2Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.5%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:526% → 6%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
93.9%
Desmond Roland run for 2 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Kip Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4194% → 94%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
94.3%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+4
94.3%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-1
94.2%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
94.0%
Spencer Roth punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:236% → 6%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
93.9%
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
93.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Tyreek HillSimilar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+4
94.2%
Tyreek Hill run for 4 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
94.2%
Kip Smith punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 2:4095% → 94%
Q2 10:40
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+3
94.7%
Antwan Goodley run for 3 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
94.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 13 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
94.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 3 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
94.7%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+8
94.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 8 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.7%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Levi NorwoodSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
94.7%
Shock Linwood run for 12 yds to the OKSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
94.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 20
OPP 26
0
94.7%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Clay FullerSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+9
94.6%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
94.2%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+34
94.0%
Chris Callahan 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by James CastlemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 2:036% → 6%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
93.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jeremy Seaton for 15 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
93.8%
Desmond Roland run for 4 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-2
93.6%
Desmond Roland run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 37Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+1
93.8%
Mason Rudolph pass intercepted Collin Brence return for 1 yd to the OKSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:3994% → 98%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
94.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 8 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+10
94.4%
Devin Chafin run for 10 yds to the OKSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
94.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 27Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+13
94.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 13 yds to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
94.3%
Devin Chafin run for 7 yds to the OKSt 7Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
97.6%
Devin Chafin run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:173% → 6%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
97.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 37 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
96.8%
Desmond Roland run for 6 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+2
96.5%
Desmond Roland run for 2 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+2
96.8%
Teddy Johnson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
96.6%
Mason Rudolph run for 5 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+10
96.5%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Lacy, Chris, PENALTY BAYLOR holding 10 yards to the BAYLOR13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
96.5%
Rennie Childs run for 7 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+3
96.5%
Rennie Childs run for 3 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.6%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.6%
Mason Rudolph run for no gain to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
96.7%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 8Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:207% → 7%
Q3 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+1
93.3%
Mason Rudolph run for 1 yd to the OKSt 40Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+6
93.3%
Desmond Roland run for 6 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
93.3%
Kip Smith punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16INT
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:2894% → 94%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
93.9%
Shock Linwood run for 15 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
93.9%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+5
94.3%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
94.3%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
94.2%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.3%
Bryce Petty pass intercepted Larry Stephens return for no gain to the OKSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:116% → 6%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
93.6%
Tyreek Hill run for 4 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-7
93.5%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Collin Brence for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 7Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 13
OWN 7
+4
93.9%
Tyreek Hill run for 4 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
93.8%
Kip Smith punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1494% → 94%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
94.4%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+3
94.4%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
94.1%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Levi NorwoodSimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
93.7%
Spencer Roth punt for 54 yds, downed at the OKSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:106% → 6%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
93.7%
Desmond Roland run for 4 yds to the OKSt 6Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+5
93.8%
Desmond Roland run for 5 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 1
OWN 11
-1
93.5%
Teddy Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 10Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 2
OWN 10
+18
93.7%
Kip Smith punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the OKSt 43 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the OKSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:5095% → 98%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
94.9%
Devin Chafin run for 6 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
94.9%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+8
94.8%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
95.0%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 15Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+4
95.1%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
98.0%
Shock Linwood run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:112% → 2%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
98.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 9 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
98.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
98.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for no gain to the OKSt 31Similar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
98.2%
Kip Smith punt for 39 yds, downed at the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:2599% → 100%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
98.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Pat Colbert) to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+9
98.5%
Antwan Goodley run for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+14
98.5%
Antwan Goodley run for 14 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
98.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 5 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+12
98.9%
Corey Coleman run for 12 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
98.9%
Corey Coleman run for 6 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+6
98.9%
Corey Coleman run for 6 yds to the OKSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
98.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Kyle Fuller) to the OKSt 28Similar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+9
98.9%
Devin Chafin run for 9 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+10
99.0%
Devin Chafin run for 10 yds to the OKSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
99.0%
Devin Chafin run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
99.0%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the OKSt 1 Shock Linwood fumbled, recovered by Bayl Spencer DrangoSimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
98.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 68 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:1799% → 99%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Kyle Fuller) to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
99.0%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
99.0%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
99.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Devin ChafinSimilar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-2
99.0%
Spencer Roth punt for 45 yds , Tyreek Hill returns for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:071% → 7%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
99.0%
Tyreek Hill run for 17 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.0%
Tyreek Hill run for 4 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+37
99.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 37 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
98.9%
Tyreek Hill run for 6 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+4
98.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Xavien Howard) to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.7%
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4896% → 96%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.1%
Devin Chafin run for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
96.3%
Devin Chafin run for 7 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
96.7%
Bryce Petty run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+4
96.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+5
96.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 5 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 2
OWN 49
-5
96.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Jimmy Landes) to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
96.4%
Spencer Roth punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyreek Hill at the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 27INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:545% → 6%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
94.7%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 17Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+4
95.1%
Tyreek Hill run for 4 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+15
95.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 15 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
94.8%
Tyreek Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
94.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jeremy SeatonSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-10
95.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jesse Robinson) to the OKSt 27Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+32
95.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 32 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
94.5%
Mason Rudolph pass intercepted Orion Stewart return for 23 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:0297% → 100%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
97.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 13 yds to the OKSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
97.4%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
97.4%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the OKSt 21Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 21
0
97.7%
Devin Chafin run for no gain to the OKSt 21Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+21
99.6%
Bryce Petty run for 21 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 29FUMBLE
11 plays · 22 yds · 2:221% → 1%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
99.4%
Rennie Childs run for 15 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.4%
Rennie Childs run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-11
99.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 4 yds to the OKSt 45 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Sheperd) to the OKSt 40Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 16
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+16
99.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 16 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
99.4%
Tyreek Hill run for 15 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-7
99.2%
Tyreek Hill run for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 17
OPP 36
0
99.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 17
OPP 36
0
99.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to David GliddenSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 17
OPP 36
-7
99.5%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 47 Mason Rudolph fumbled, forced by Shawn Oakman, recovered by OKSt Teddy Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:44
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
-6.2
TD · Q2 4:18
Devin Chafin run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q2 0:01
Mason Rudolph pass complete to David Glidden for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
-3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com