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TTU

Texas Tech 34 at Iowa State 31

ISU
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:43 · Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Bradley Marquez
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Home team on offense+1.7Pregame prior+0.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:57: Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +11.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:30: Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin PAT MISSED) — TTU win probability +15.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 4:17: Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 82 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK) — TTU win probability +20.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:44: Aaron Wimberly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +23.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:07: Kenny Williams 44 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (David Brenner Kick) — TTU win probability +41.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 8TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:30TTU 4th & 4 at ISU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.3%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:49ISU 4th & 8 at TTU 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    54.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:44TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:16ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:30ISU 4th & 5 at TTU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:30TTU 4th & 25 at TTU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−2.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:38ISU 4th & 4 at TTU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−5.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00TTU 4th & 9 at ISU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:52TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:30ISU 4th & 13 at TTU 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−1.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%−2.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:17ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 45, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:43TTU 4th & 4 at ISU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    30.8%−3.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−3.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:40ISU 4th & 4 at TTU 24, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.4%−1.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−14.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:38ISU 4th & 7 at TTU 36, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.3 ptsWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.2%−3.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    33.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−9.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:57TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:47TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:38ISU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:29ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:57ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:30TTU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:17TTU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:44ISU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:07TTU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
55.2%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Sam Eguavoen for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+22
55.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 22 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
55.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd to the IowSt 47 Aaron Wimberly fumbled, forced by Jackson Richards, recovered by TexTc Sam EguavoenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:3345% → 47%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
55.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 4 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+8
55.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 8 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
55.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
55.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for 6 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
55.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+5
55.3%
Patrick Mahomes run for 5 yds to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
55.1%
DeAndre Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+26
53.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 26 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
54.3%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 16 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
54.5%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 2 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
54.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
54.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
54.0%
Colin Downing punt for 27 yds, downed at the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
53.7%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Cantrell, Dylan (Mills, Brian), PENALTY TTU ineligible downfield on pass (Cantrell, Dylan) 5 yards to the TTU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+13
53.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 13 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
53.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Bradley Marquez, broken up by Jared BrackensSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+3
53.7%
Patrick Mahomes run for 3 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
53.6%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
53.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
53.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
53.8%
Taylor Symmank punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
53.1%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 8 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+2
53.5%
Tyler Brown run for 2 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
53.2%
Tyler Brown run for 1 yd to the IowSt 35Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+5
53.2%
Sam E. Richardson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
53.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen Lazard, broken up by Branden JacksonSimilar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
53.0%
Colin Downing punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 84 yds · 0:3148% → 52%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
52.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Brad Pearson for 12 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
48.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 72 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0949% → 53%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
49.1%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 7 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
49.4%
Aaron Wimberly run for 6 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
49.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 14 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
49.9%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 4 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-1
49.9%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+9
49.8%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 9 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
49.9%
Aaron Wimberly run for 3 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
50.2%
Sam E. Richardson run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+4
50.0%
Aaron Wimberly run for 4 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
50.2%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
50.2%
Sam E. Richardson run for 12 yds to the TexTc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
52.5%
E.J. Bibbs 13 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:3050% → 49%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
49.8%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 17Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 11
OWN 17
-8
50.0%
Mahomes, P. rush for 6 yards to the TTU23 (Pierson, Dale), PENALTY TTU holding (Brown, Baylen) 8 yards to the TTU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 19
OWN 9
+9
50.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 9 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
50.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem Grant, broken up by T.J. MutchersonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
50.7%
Taylor Symmank punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jarvis West at the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:1550% → 50%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
50.1%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 22 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
51.7%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Jarvis WestSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
51.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 6 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+9
51.5%
D'Vario Montgomery run for 9 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
52.3%
Sam E. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
52.3%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 5 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
51.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to DeVondrick NealySimilar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
49.9%
Cole Netten 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
48.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 21Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
48.9%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Bradley MarquezSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 12
OWN 21
-13
49.5%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Dale Pierson for a loss of 13 yards to the TexTc 8Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 25
OWN 8
0
50.2%
Taylor Symmank punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jarvis West at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:4051% → 60%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
50
-7
50.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+51
48.9%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Tad Ecby for 51 yds to the TexTc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
51.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 11Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
59.7%
Tyler Brown 11 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12INT
14 plays · 68 yds · 4:4145% → 51%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
55.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 12 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
54.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 5 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
53.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 6 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
53.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Bradley Marquez for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 46Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+4
54.1%
Patrick Mahomes run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 8
50
-10
53.7%
Mahomes, P. pass complete to Grant, Jakeem for 8 yards to the ISU42 (Lynn, Kenneth), PENALTY TTU holding (Brown, Baylen) 10 yards to the TTU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 18
OWN 40
+26
55.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 26 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
52.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 3 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+25
52.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 25 yds to the IowSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
52.2%
Washington, De. rush for 1 yard to the ISU5 (White, Darius;Mills, Brian), PENALTY TTU illegal formation 5 yards to the ISU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
52.2%
Patrick Mahomes run for 4 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
49.2%
Patrick Mahomes pass intercepted Nigel Tribune return for 5 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13FG
19 plays · 91 yds · 4:0456% → 62%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
55.9%
Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd to the IowSt 6Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+5
55.7%
Sam E. Richardson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+18
55.1%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 18 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
56.9%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
56.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 3 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+19
55.9%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for 19 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
59.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Aaron WimberlySimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
59.1%
Aaron Wimberly run for 10 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
59.6%
Sam E. Richardson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
61.0%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete, broken up by Branden JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+10
59.7%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 10 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
61.0%
Richardson, Sam B. pass incomplete to Montgomery, D'Vario, PENALTY TTU pass interference (Bethel, Nigel) 15 yards to the TTU8, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
61.0%
Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
60.8%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
59.5%
Sam E. Richardson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
62.4%
Cole Netten 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:1937% → 36%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
62.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 7 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
64.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Justin Stockton for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
59.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 7 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
57.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
57.0%
Patrick Mahomes run for 5 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
57.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+1
57.4%
Patrick Mahomes run for 1 yd to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 44
-5
58.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, delay of game (Patrick Mahomes) to the IowSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
60.5%
Taylor Symmank punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:0762% → 78%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+49
62.2%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 49 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
65.9%
Aaron Wimberly run for 6 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+19
65.9%
Aaron Wimberly run for 19 yds to the TexTc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
65.9%
Aaron Wimberly run for 4 yds to the TexTc 2Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.7%
Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 2:2225% → 41%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+25
75.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 25 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
74.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 9 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
74.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Bradley MarquezSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+8
75.8%
Patrick Mahomes run for 8 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+44
75.0%
Kenny Williams run for 44 yds to the IowSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
59.1%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.5%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
67.0%
Aaron Wimberly run for 10 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
68.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
67.4%
Tyler Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 39Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+18
65.8%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 18 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
69.6%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 4 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-4
69.6%
Sam E. Richardson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-3
68.2%
Sam E. Richardson sacked by Branden Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 46Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
64.8%
Colin Downing punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 87 yds · 0:3035% → 55%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
65.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 5 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+82
44.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 82 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0047% → 48%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
47.1%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 8 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
50.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for 4 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
48.5%
Sam E. Richardson sacked by Pete Robertson for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+11
46.8%
Sam E. Richardson run for 11 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+4
49.3%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for 4 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
48.2%
Colin Downing punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:1656% → 60%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
44.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 10 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
43.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 10 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
41.4%
Kenny Williams run for 7 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+4
40.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
39.8%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 3 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-2
39.6%
Patrick Mahomes sacked by Cory Morrissey for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 48 Patrick Mahomes fumbled, recovered by IowSt Dale Pierson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:3051% → 75%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+49
50.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Tad Ecby for 49 yds to the TexTc 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.5%
Aaron Wimberly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 40 yds · 2:5633% → 38%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
66.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 6 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+4
65.4%
Kenny Williams run for 4 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
65.8%
DeAndre Washington run for 13 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
63.1%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
64.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Ian Sadler for 11 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
61.4%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
60.8%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+6
63.6%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 6 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
62.5%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Bradley MarquezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24MISSED FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:5874% → 81%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
73.8%
Sam E. Richardson run for 8 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+5
75.1%
Aaron Wimberly run for 5 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
75.5%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 5 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
75.5%
Jarvis West run for 4 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+9
74.5%
Aaron Wimberly run for 9 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
76.0%
Aaron Wimberly run for 8 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+8
75.8%
Tyler Brown run for 8 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
74.7%
DeVondrick Nealy run for no gain to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
80.8%
Cole Netten 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3333% → 81%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
67.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Baylen Brown) to the TexTc 20Similar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
67.4%
Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Lauderdale, D., PENALTY ISU holding (Lynn, Kenneth) 10 yards to the TTU30, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
65.6%
DeAndre Washington run for 6 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
62.7%
Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete to Bradley MarquezSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
65.0%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 4 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
63.4%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Cameron Batson for 6 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+10
61.3%
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 10 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
19.4%
Kenny Williams 44 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (David Brenner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 1:2335% → 33%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
34.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 22 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
39.9%
Sam E. Richardson run for 12 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
41.4%
Aaron Wimberly run for 3 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
41.3%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Jarvis West, broken up by Tevin MadisonSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
40.3%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen Lazard, broken up by Nigel Bethel IISimilar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+5
33.0%
Sam E. Richardson run for 5 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0582% → 82%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
18.3%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
18.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+9
19.0%
Patrick Mahomes run for 9 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
16.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 42Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 13
OWN 42
-2
17.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:07
Kenny Williams 44 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (David Brenner Kick)
-41.9
TD · Q4 13:44
Aaron Wimberly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+23.9
TD · Q3 4:17
Patrick Mahomes pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 82 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)
-20.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com