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BAY

Baylor 48 at Oklahoma 14

OU
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:59 · Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Okla 19 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Home team on offense−52.4Score differential−36.5Garbage-time factor−19.3Pregame prior+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:56: Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 33 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +7.5 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 10:50: Devin Chafin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +8.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:38: Devin Chafin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +9.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:10: Corey Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +12.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:18: Shock Linwood run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +10.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:37OU 4th & 5 at OU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:51BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:08OU 4th & 9 at OU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:20BAY 4th & 15 at OU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:39BAY 4th & 21 at BAY 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:23BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.1%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:18OU 4th & 11 at BAY 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:38BAY 4th & 4 at OU 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%−1.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:14OU 4th & 9 at OU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:23OU 4th & 3 at OU 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:40OU 4th & 2 at BAY 3, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%−1.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−8.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:12BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 49, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:32OU 4th & 20 at OU 11, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:38BAY 4th & 2 at OU 7, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:11OU 4th & 2 at OU 47, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:59BAY 4th & 1 at OU 24, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:53OU 4th & 7 at BAY 47, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:22BAY 4th & 2 at OU 49, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 5:07OU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:37OU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:56BAY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:50BAY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:38BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:10BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:18BAY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:37BAY Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1857% → 57%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.5%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Blake BellSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.5%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
56.5%
Trevor Knight run for 3 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
56.5%
Jed Barnett punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:4244% → 43%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
56.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
56.5%
Bryce Petty run for 7 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-12
56.5%
Bryce Petty sacked by Jordan Phillips for a loss of 12 yards to the OKLAHOMA 39 BAYLOR Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bryce Petty) to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 15
OWN 39
+6
56.8%
Spencer Roth punt for 51 yds , Zack Sanchez returns for 6 yds to the Okla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:3757% → 57%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
56.7%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+14
56.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Michiah Quick for 14 yds to the Okla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
56.8%
Michiah Quick run for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 24Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+7
56.7%
Trevor Knight run for 7 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
56.6%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to K.J. Young, broken up by Collin BrenceSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
56.5%
Jed Barnett punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4FG
16 plays · 63 yds · 3:4143% → 43%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
56.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 11 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
56.7%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
56.4%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
56.5%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
56.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 16 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
56.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 15 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
56.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Pat Colbert) to the Okla 31Similar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 15
OPP 31
-2
56.2%
Bryce Petty run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 33 Bryce Petty fumbled, recovered by Bayl Shock LinwoodSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 17
OPP 33
+13
56.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 13 yds to the Okla 20Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
56.3%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Okla 17Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+5
56.7%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the Okla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
56.1%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Okla 10Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
56.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Jay Lee, broken up by Steven ParkerSimilar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-7
56.2%
Bryce Petty sacked by Dominique Alexander and Chuka Ndulue for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 17Similar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 15
OPP 17
+34
56.8%
Chris Callahan 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 2:4757% → 60%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
56.6%
Trevor Knight run for 6 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
57.1%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
57.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Durron Neal for 8 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+4
57.3%
Keith Ford run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
57.3%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Michiah QuickSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+18
57.3%
Trevor Knight run for 18 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
57.7%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+7
57.5%
Samaje Perine run for 7 yds to the Bayl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
57.6%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Durron Neal, broken up by Ryan ReidSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
57.6%
Trevor Knight run for 2 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
59.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Michiah Quick for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 2:2141% → 38%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
59.5%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd to the Bayl 16Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+10
59.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 10 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
59.5%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-1
59.3%
Devin Chafin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-15
60.0%
Petty, Bryce pass complete to Cannon, KD for 12 yards to the BAYLOR42, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Goodley, Antwan) 15 yards to the BAYLOR15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 21
OWN 15
0
61.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Clay FullerSimilar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 21
OWN 15
0
61.9%
Spencer Roth punt for 31 yds, downed at the Bayl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:5361% → 66%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
60.7%
Keith Ford run for 18 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
61.3%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+14
61.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Durron Neal for 14 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
61.6%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Blake BellSimilar
Q1 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
61.6%
Trevor Knight run for no gain to the Bayl 9Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
65.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Durron Neal for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3134% → 40%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.3%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.6%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
66.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 9 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
66.3%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
65.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
66.3%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 13:23
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+3
67.3%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.9%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD Cannon, broken up by Quentin HayesSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+18
67.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 18 yds to the Okla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
59.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 33 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9INT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5361% → 61%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.6%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
60.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Michiah Quick for 11 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
61.5%
Perine, Samaje rush for no gain to the OKLAHOMA38, PENALTY OKLAHOMA illegal formation 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-3
60.9%
Trevor Knight run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 30Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+36
60.8%
Trevor Knight pass intercepted Bryce Hager return for 36 yds to the Okla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.6%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:1756% → 56%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
56.0%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Keith Ford for 1 yd to the Okla 33Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+54
56.0%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Michiah Quick for 54 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
58.8%
Ford, Keith rush for 6 yards to the BAYLOR7, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Williams, Daryl) 10 yards to the BAYLOR23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+4
58.6%
Trevor Knight run for 4 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 16
OPP 19
0
58.3%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 16
OPP 19
+5
56.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offside Defense (Andrew Billings) to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
57.5%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
56.0%
Michael Hunnicutt 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
18 plays · 80 yds · 4:2046% → 61%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
53.7%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
52.8%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
52.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 5 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
52.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 3 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
52.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
53.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Levi Norwood, broken up by Chuka NdulueSimilar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+15
54.0%
Roth, Spencer punt 28 yards to the OKLAHOMA37, downed, PENALTY OKLAHOMA roughing the kicker (Phillips, Jordan) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
50
+11
50.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 11 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
50.5%
Devin Chafin run for no gain to the Okla 39Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
50.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+6
50.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+10
52.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 10 yds to the Okla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
49.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 11 yds to the Okla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
49.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 7 yds to the Okla 5Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 3
OPP 5
-1
49.6%
Bryce Petty run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 6Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+4
49.2%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Okla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.3%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:4643% → 37%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
42.5%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-2
42.1%
Trevor Knight run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+16
40.6%
Trevor Knight run for 16 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
40.4%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-9
40.6%
Knight, Trevor pass complete to Ford, Keith for 13 yards to the BAYLOR35, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Williams, Daryl) 9 yards to the OKLAHOMA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+6
38.5%
Trevor Knight run for 6 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
38.4%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Michiah QuickSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
37.4%
Jed Barnett punt for 35 yds, downed at the Bayl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
37.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3262% → 80%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
37.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 10 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
36.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 5 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
35.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 2 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+11
36.2%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 11 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
34.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 13 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
33.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 5 yds to the Okla 23Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+7
33.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 7 yds to the Okla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
33.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 11 yds to the Okla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.5%
Corey Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2224% → 22%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Michiah Quick for 5 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
23.8%
Keith Ford run for 4 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
23.9%
Keith Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 32Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
22.0%
Jed Barnett punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:4480% → 93%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
20.3%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+48
20.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 48 yds to the Okla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
17.9%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Okla 18Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
17.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 6 yds to the Okla 12Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+7
18.0%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Okla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
17.5%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Okla 3Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.7%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:269% → 9%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+50
9.0%
Alex Ross run for 50 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
9.7%
Alex Ross run for 4 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+5
9.3%
Alex Ross run for 5 yds to the Bayl 2Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-1
8.9%
Alex Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 3Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 2
OPP 3
0
8.6%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to K.J. YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:0895% → 96%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
5.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 5 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 5
OWN 8
0
5.2%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Bayl 8Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+41
5.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 41 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
4.5%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 9
50
+4
4.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 4 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
4.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 5
OPP 46
-5
4.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
4.3%
Spencer Roth punt for 45 yds, downed at the Okla 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:285% → 5%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
5.4%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the Okla 9Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+5
5.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Keith Ford for 5 yds to the Okla 14Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+7
5.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to K.J. Young for 7 yds to the Okla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
5.5%
Knight, Trevor pass complete to Neal, Durron for 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA31, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Williams, Daryl) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 20
OWN 11
0
5.0%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Keith FordSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 20
OWN 11
0
5.0%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Michiah Quick, broken up by Grant CampbellSimilar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 20
OWN 11
0
4.9%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 20
OWN 11
0
4.9%
Jed Barnett punt for 55 yds , Levi Norwood returns for no gain to the Bayl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:3197% → 99%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
3.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-5
3.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Jarell Broxton) to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+29
3.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 29 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
3.0%
Corey Coleman run for 2 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
2.9%
Bryce Petty run for 7 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+15
2.8%
Devin Chafin run for 15 yds to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
2.7%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the Okla 13Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+7
2.6%
Devin Chafin run for 7 yds to the Okla 6Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 1
OPP 6
-1
2.6%
Devin Chafin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 7Similar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+24
0.8%
Chris Callahan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
1.2%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Durron NealSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
0.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Okla 34Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+10
0.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Durron Neal for 10 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+3
0.8%
Trevor Knight run for 3 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 2
OWN 47
-14
0.5%
Trevor Knight sacked by Grant Campbell for a loss of 14 yards to the Okla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
0.5%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
0.4%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
0.4%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+5
0.4%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Okla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
0.3%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Okla 15Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
0.2%
Shock Linwood 15 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
0.2%
Alex Ross run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
50
+2
0.2%
Cody Thomas pass complete to Michiah Quick for 2 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
0.2%
Alex Ross run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Cody Thomas pass incomplete to Alex RossSimilar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Jed Barnett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25END OF GAME
10 plays · 38 yds · 5:27100% → 100%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
0.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+5
0.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.2%
Seth Russell run for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
0.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Quan Jones for 9 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
0.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
0.1%
Seth Russell run for no gain to the Bayl 46 Seth Russell fumbled, recovered by Bayl Seth RussellSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+5
0.1%
Seth Russell run for 5 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+2
0.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 49Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:10
Corey Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q3 8:18
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q2 3:38
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com