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ISU

Iowa State 45 at Texas 48

TEX
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:23 · William Russ punt for 48 yds , DeVondrick Nealy returns for 2 yds to the IowSt 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 178Pregame prior+3.8Home team on offense+15.2Score differential+3.1Garbage-time factor+11.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:22: Malcolm Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK) — TEX win probability +22.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 5:24: Aaron Wimberly run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +35.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:19: Malcolm Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK) — TEX win probability +33.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:28: Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 11 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +45.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:03: Nick Rose 21 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +21.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:38ISU 4th & 18 at ISU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:44ISU 4th & 8 at TEX 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:00TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:58ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:07TEX 4th & 14 at TEX 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:47TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:06ISU 4th & 22 at ISU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−3.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:09TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:55ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:55TEX 4th & 9 at ISU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:15TEX 4th & 11 at ISU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−8.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:19ISU 4th & 3 at TEX 3, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.9%−2.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−13.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:07TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−5.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:04ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:23TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−2.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:43TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:22TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:04ISU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:53ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:45TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:50TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:03ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:22TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:24ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:19TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−1.7
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:28ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1721% → 22%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for no gain to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
78.6%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Hassan Ridgeway for a loss of 8 yards to the IowSt 17Similar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+15
78.4%
Colin Downing punt for 50 yds , Jaxon Shipley returns for 15 yds to the Texas 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:3278% → 79%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
78.3%
Malcolm Brown run for 12 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
78.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 12 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
78.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 28 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:5921% → 21%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.6%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (NA) to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+5
78.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for no gain to the IowSt 35Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
78.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 17 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
78.3%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 4 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
78.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-2
78.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
78.6%
Colin Downing punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:5879% → 81%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+33
78.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 33 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
79.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 6 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+9
79.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 9 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
79.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Johnathan Gray for 14 yds to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
79.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 4 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+16
79.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 12 yds to the IowSt 8 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (NA) to the IowSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
79.3%
Malcolm Brown run for 2 yds to the IowSt 2Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.4%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:1419% → 23%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.7%
Martinez Syria run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
80.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 10 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
80.7%
Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
80.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 9 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
80.5%
Aaron Wimberly run for 18 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
80.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
80.3%
Sam B. Richardson run for 12 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
80.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+8
80.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for 8 yds to the Texas 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
80.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6INT
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:2579% → 79%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
78.7%
Malcolm Brown run for 4 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+5
78.7%
Malcolm Brown run for 5 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+3
78.5%
Johnathan Gray run for 3 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
78.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 4 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+17
78.6%
Malcolm Brown run for 17 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+45
79.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 45 yds to the IowSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3022% → 21%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
78.4%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 3 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
78.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+2
78.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 2 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8FUMBLE TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+51
75.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for no gain for a TD John Harris fumbled, recovered by IowSt Jevohn Miller , return for 51 yds, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1074% → 73%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
74.3%
Malcolm Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 16Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 16
-8
74.1%
Swoopes, Tyrone pass complete to Harris, John for 12 yards to the TEXAS28, PENALTY TEXAS holding 8 yards to the TEXAS8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 21
OWN 8
0
74.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 21
OWN 8
+15
73.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 15 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+43
73.0%
William Russ punt for 43 yds , Jarvis West returns for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:0227% → 35%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
72.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+18
72.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 18 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
71.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for 1 yd to the Texas 48Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+33
71.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 33 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
70.7%
Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd to the Texas 14Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+6
70.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 6 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
64.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:4566% → 75%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
66.4%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to M.J. McFarland for 10 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
66.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 6 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+10
67.5%
Johnathan Gray run for 10 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
67.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
66.8%
Johnathan Gray run for 7 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+14
66.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 14 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
67.5%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+10
66.4%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 10 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
74.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 9 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3231% → 29%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.5%
Martinez Syria run for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
68.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
69.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
70.6%
Colin Downing punt for 47 yds , Jaxon Shipley returns for no gain to the Texas 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4672% → 70%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
71.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
71.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-4
70.6%
Tyrone Swoopes sacked by Cory Morrissey for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 20Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 14
OWN 20
0
69.9%
William Russ punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Aaron Wimberly at the IowSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14INT TD
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:1032% → 24%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
67.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 8 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
66.5%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
50
-15
66.3%
Richardson, Sam B. pass complete to Montgomery, D'Vario for 50 yards to the TEXAS0, PENALTY IOWAST clipping 15 yards to the IOWAST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+15
68.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
50
+15
66.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 15 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
65.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 6 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
64.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+74
76.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted for a TD Dylan Haines return for 74 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 2:3422% → 37%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
78.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 22 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
76.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 6 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+6
75.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 6 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
75.8%
Aaron Wimberly run for 3 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
76.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+11
77.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 11 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
75.6%
Sam B. Richardson run for 10 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
75.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
75.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 9 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
77.6%
Sam B. Richardson run for 2 yds to the Texas 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
76.6%
Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd to the Texas 5Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
63.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0870% → 68%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
71.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John HarrisSimilar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
69.2%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
68.3%
William Russ punt for 57 yds , Aaron Wimberly returns for 8 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:3434% → 33%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
65.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 11 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
65.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 5 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
64.6%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 1 yd to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+7
65.7%
Sam B. Richardson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
63.6%
Richardson, Sam B. rush for 1 yard to the IOWAST42, PENALTY IOWAST holding 10 yards to the IOWAST31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 20
OWN 31
0
65.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 20
OWN 31
-7
65.8%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Malcom Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 24Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 27
OWN 24
+5
67.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 5 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 22
OWN 29
0
67.3%
Colin Downing punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5168% → 65%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
67.6%
Malcolm Brown run for 3 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
67.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
66.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+7
65.1%
William Russ punt for 53 yds , Aaron Wimberly returns for 7 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1036% → 35%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
64.1%
Martinez Syria run for 4 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
63.4%
Martinez Syria run for 3 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
63.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
64.7%
Colin Downing punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 3:3567% → 71%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
67.1%
Malcolm Brown run for 1 yd to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+23
67.0%
Malcolm Brown run for 8 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (NA) to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
70.4%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 7 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+3
70.4%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
70.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Geoff Swaim for 5 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-4
71.2%
Malcolm Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
69.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+10
66.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 10 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
71.0%
Malcolm Brown run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+3
70.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 3 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-5
69.2%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Marcus Hutchins) to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
68.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John HarrisSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+45
70.5%
Nick Rose 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 3:4630% → 44%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.4%
Sam B. Richardson run for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
68.9%
Sam B. Richardson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
69.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 11 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
66.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
68.6%
Sam B. Richardson run for 6 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+30
67.3%
Aaron Wimberly run for 30 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
64.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 10 yds to the Texas 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
64.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 3 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
64.1%
Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd to the Texas 3Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
64.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to E.J. BibbsSimilar
Q3 0:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
55.9%
Cole Netten 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5363% → 59%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
62.7%
Johnathan Gray run for 4 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
63.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-5
60.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Johnathan Gray for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 21Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 11
OWN 21
+27
58.9%
William Russ punt for 63 yds , Aaron Wimberly returns for 27 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24INT
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:5846% → 40%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
54.0%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Jordan Hicks for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 17
OWN 36
-1
58.3%
Sam B. Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 18
OWN 35
0
59.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted Duke Thomas return for no gain to the Texas 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:3366% → 89%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
66.4%
Swoopes, Tyrone pass incomplete to Shipley, Jaxon, PENALTY IOWAST pass interference 15 yards to the IOWAST37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
67.2%
Malcolm Brown run for 1 yd to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+24
66.9%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 24 yds to the IowSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
68.2%
Malcolm Brown run for 2 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
68.0%
Malcolm Brown run for 6 yds to the IowSt 4Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
66.0%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the IowSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.8%
Malcolm Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0118% → 17%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
81.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to E.J. BibbsSimilar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
83.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for 5 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
82.7%
Colin Downing punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2787% → 86%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
87.1%
Johnathan Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+1
86.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to M.J. McFarland for 1 yd to the Texas 35Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
86.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John HarrisSimilar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+2
85.9%
William Russ punt for 48 yds , DeVondrick Nealy returns for 2 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 28TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:4715% → 58%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
85.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 7 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
83.3%
Aaron Wimberly run for no gain to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+18
84.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 18 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+34
82.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 34 yds to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
78.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for 14 yds to the Texas 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
42.3%
Aaron Wimberly run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 29TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5058% → 96%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
58.2%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 17 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
62.4%
Malcolm Brown run for 3 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
62.9%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 2
50
+9
62.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 9 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
64.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 7 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+6
65.3%
Malcolm Brown run for 6 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
64.9%
Malcolm Brown run for 3 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-1
65.4%
Tyrone Swoopes run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+22
62.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 22 yds to the IowSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.4%
Malcolm Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 30TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:4710% → 61%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
90.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 10 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Cedric Reed) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
50
+5
86.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 5 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+12
86.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 12 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
83.6%
Aaron Wimberly run for 21 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
81.9%
Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd to the Texas 11Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
38.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 11 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 31FG
5 plays · 68 yds · 0:1159% → 97%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+39
59.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 39 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
96.7%
Nick Rose 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 32FUMBLE
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
89.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds to the IowSt 4 lat. to Aaron Wimberly for no gain to the IowSt 4 lat. to Allen Lazard for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 4 lat. to Daniel Burton for a loss of 8 yards Daniel Burton fumbled, recovered by Texas Malcom BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:28
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 11 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
-45.2
TD · Q4 5:24
Aaron Wimberly run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
-35.8
TD · Q4 1:19
Malcolm Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)
+33.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com