Try the model
TOL

Toledo 30 at Iowa State 37

ISU
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Jack Trice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-7.1ISU 50.4%Jeremiah Detmer 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 6 · Q2 3:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:20 · Jeremiah Detmer 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Pregame prior+10.9Home team on offense−7.3Garbage-time factor−2.2Score differential−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:04: Martinez Syria run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +10.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:01: Terry Swanson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +15.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q4 13:38: Jeremiah Detmer 41 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +7.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:23: E.J. Bibbs 5 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick) — ISU win probability +23.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:56: Logan Woodside pass complete to Marc Remy for 4 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +8.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:32TOL 4th & 4 at ISU 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:05ISU 4th & 9 at TOL 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:57TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:48ISU 4th & 19 at ISU 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−2.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:20TOL 4th & 6 at ISU 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:13ISU 4th & 10 at TOL 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−3.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:06TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 19, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:56ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−2.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:38TOL 4th & 5 at ISU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−10.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:17TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:56TOL 4th & 4 at ISU 4, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 10:48TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:11ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:04ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:01TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:23ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:35ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:56TOL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1FG
14 plays · 81 yds · 4:2831% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+19
69.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 19 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
69.5%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
69.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+22
69.5%
Logan Woodside run for 7 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, personal foul (T.J. Mutcherson) to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
69.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon JensenSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
69.5%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+7
69.5%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
69.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
69.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the IowSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
69.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Logan WoodsideSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
69.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
69.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
68.4%
Jeremiah Detmer 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:2769% → 69%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
68.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 15 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
68.9%
Sam B. Richardson run for 6 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+18
69.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 18 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
69.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 11 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
69.1%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 5 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+5
69.1%
Richardson, Sam B. pass incomplete to Nealy, DeVondrick, PENALTY TOL offside defense (GIBBS, Keenen) 5 yards to the TOL15, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
69.1%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 1 yd to the Toled 14Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
69.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
68.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
68.5%
Cole Netten 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
67.8%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
67.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 2 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
67.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
68.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 37 yds , DeVondrick Nealy returns for no gain to the IowSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:4568% → 69%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
68.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 4 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
68.1%
Sam B. Richardson run for no gain to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+9
67.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 9 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
68.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 6 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+14
68.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 14 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
69.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 4 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
69.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 1 yd to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+15
68.8%
Richardson, Sam B. pass incomplete to Wesley, Jauan (ROGERS, DeJuan), PENALTY TOL roughing passer (HESTER, Treyvon) 15 yards to the TOL26, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+23
69.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 23 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
69.2%
Sam B. Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 6Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
69.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to E.J. BibbsSimilar
Q1 5:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-12
68.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Daniel Burton for a loss of 12 yards to the Toled 18 IOWA ST Penalty, illegal touching ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+36
68.6%
Cole Netten 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:1532% → 39%
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
68.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Toled 20Similar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
68.6%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
68.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+15
69.2%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to RUSSELL, Alonzo, PENALTY ISU pass interference (Tribune, Nigel) 15 yards to the TOL36, 1ST DOWN TOL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete, broken up by T.J. MutchersonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
68.3%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+15
67.4%
Terry Swanson run for 15 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
67.0%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
67.1%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+11
67.4%
Logan Woodside run for 11 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
66.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 1 yd to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+4
66.6%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+6
67.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
66.4%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
61.1%
Terry Swanson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
63.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Tyler Brown for 11 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
64.2%
Sam E. Richardson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+14
64.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 14 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
65.7%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 3 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-5
65.7%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 12
50
-7
64.4%
Sam E. Richardson sacked by Ray Bush for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 19
OWN 43
0
63.2%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to DeVondrick NealySimilar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
62.8%
Colin Downing punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:1639% → 50%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
60.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
61.0%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+34
60.1%
Terry Swanson run for 34 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
58.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+3
57.0%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+18
57.3%
Marc Remy run for 18 yds to the IowSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
56.5%
Marc Remy run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 20Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+1
57.0%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 19Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+7
57.5%
Logan Woodside run for 7 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
50.4%
Jeremiah Detmer 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8FG
17 plays · 55 yds · 3:0753% → 57%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Dondre Daley, broken up by Trevon MathisSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.3%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
53.2%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 9 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
54.5%
Sam E. Richardson run for 8 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
56.0%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to E.J. BibbsSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+6
55.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 6 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
56.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
56.1%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 4 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+9
53.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 9 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
55.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 15 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
55.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
55.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to E.J. BibbsSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
53.7%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
57.3%
Cole Netten 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
55.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4957% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
56.8%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 16 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
59.1%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 2 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-4
59.1%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+15
56.1%
Richardson, Sam B. pass incomplete to Lazard, Allen, PENALTY TOL pass interference (MARTIN, Jordan) 15 yards to the TOL46, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
60.3%
DeVondrick Nealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+14
58.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 14 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
61.8%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 6 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+8
61.9%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 8 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
61.9%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 5 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-8
61.9%
Sam E. Richardson sacked by Junior Sylvestre for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+23
69.5%
Tad Ecby 23 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
67.4%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+4
67.4%
Logan Woodside run for 4 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
68.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey Jones, broken up by Kamari Cotton-MoyaSimilar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 4
OWN 19
-2
69.4%
Nick Ellis punt for 44 yds , DeVondrick Nealy returns for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:2769% → 83%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
68.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 16 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
71.0%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 10 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
71.2%
Tyler Brown run for 4 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
72.0%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 2 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+22
70.8%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 22 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
72.0%
Sam E. Richardson run for 8 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
72.0%
Sam E. Richardson run for 2 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.9%
Martinez Syria run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:5719% → 39%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
80.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
81.0%
Logan Woodside run for 5 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+12
81.5%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete, PENALTY ISU pass interference (Tribune, Nigel) 12 yards to the TOL34, 1ST DOWN TOL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
80.2%
Corey Jones run for 24 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
78.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 19 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
77.1%
Logan Woodside run for 5 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+7
77.1%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
77.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 10 yds to the IowSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.1%
Logan Woodside run for no gain to the IowSt 1Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.2%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
68.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Tyler Brown for 1 yd to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
68.3%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Tad EcbySimilar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
66.9%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 9
OWN 32
-4
65.8%
Colin Downing punt for 36 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 28 TOLEDO Penalty, running into the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:3332% → 45%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
67.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 9 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+4
65.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 4 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
65.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 1
50
+9
63.2%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
63.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 42Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+8
64.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 8 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+5
63.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 5 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
61.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-2
61.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
62.7%
Logan Woodside run for no gain to the IowSt 24Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
54.8%
Jeremiah Detmer 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1561% → 88%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Sam E. Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.1%
Sam E. Richardson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
58.2%
Richardson, Sam B. pass incomplete to Daley, Dondre, PENALTY TOL pass interference (SYLVESTRE, J.) 7 yards to the ISU33, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
61.1%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for no gain to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+13
60.8%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 13 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
64.4%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 12 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
65.5%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 15 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
66.7%
DeVondrick Nealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+10
66.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 10 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+13
65.0%
Sam E. Richardson run for 13 yds to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.4%
E.J. Bibbs 5 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.0%
Corey Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
82.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 14 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
80.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-1
81.0%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
82.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
83.4%
Nick Ellis punt for 47 yds, fair catch by DeVondrick Nealy at the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
17 plays · 85 yds · 4:2087% → 98%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
87.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 10 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.2%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
87.2%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to D'Vario MontgomerySimilar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
86.2%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 13 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
88.6%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 9 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
88.9%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+6
88.1%
Sam E. Richardson run for 6 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
89.1%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 6 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
92.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 3 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+1
91.6%
Martinez Syria run for 1 yd to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
92.2%
Sam E. Richardson pass incomplete to E.J. BibbsSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
92.2%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 7 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+8
91.8%
Sam E. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 8 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
92.4%
Sam E. Richardson run for 3 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
92.4%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 3 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
97.9%
Allen Lazard 14 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 2:343% → 11%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
97.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 9 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+7
97.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 7 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
97.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 50 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
96.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Marc Remy for 6 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
96.5%
Marc Remy run for 5 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
96.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+8
96.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 8 yds to the IowSt 6Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+3
96.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, roughing passer (T.J. Mutcherson) to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
96.6%
Marc Remy run for 1 yd to the IowSt 2Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
96.5%
Marc Remy run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 4Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
96.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Dwight MaconSimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey Jones, broken up by Kamari Cotton-MoyaSimilar
Q4 0:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Marc Remy for 4 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-3
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:23
E.J. Bibbs 5 Yd pass from Sam B. Richardson (Cole Netten Kick)
+23.5
TD · Q3 4:01
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q3 8:04
Martinez Syria run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com