View as
Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:26 · Spencer Roth punt for 42 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 18 yds to the TCU 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 0:35: Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 47 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +20.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:29: Aaron Green run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +18.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:39: Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 28 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +23.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:42: Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 25 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +35.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Chris Callahan 28 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +29.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 9 of 11TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 13
- Q1 13:45BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt77.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 12:00BAY 4th & 16 at TCU 33, tiedClose callWent for it · 76.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.7%−0.116% to convertField goal76.8%49% to makePunt76.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:00BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snapGo for it70.9%−0.436% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.3%average punt
- Q1 5:35TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it31.1%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.4%average punt
- Q1 3:59BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snapGo for it68.0%−0.256% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.1%average punt
- Q1 2:30TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 29, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snapGo for it34.1%−0.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.7%average punt
- Q1 1:32TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it30.1%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.7%average punt
- Q2 10:53TCU 4th & 4 at BAY 35, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.2%48% to convertField goal30.3%−0.845% to makePunt29.9%−1.2average punt
- Q2 8:00BAY 4th & 2 at midfield, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.4%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt57.5%−0.9average punt
- Q2 5:46TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 15, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it30.9%−2.812% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.7%average punt
- Q2 5:09BAY 4th & 5 at TCU 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.1%42% to convertField goal65.4%−0.745% to makePunt64.7%−1.5average punt
- Q2 2:44TCU 4th & 9 at BAY 22, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snapGo for it36.6%−0.930% to convertField goalTheir call37.4%72% to makePunt32.1%−5.4average punt
- Q2 0:26BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snapGo for it51.1%−2.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.2%average punt
- Q2 0:01TCU 4th & 6 at BAY 48, up 7Close callWent for it · 48.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.1%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt48.6%average punt
- Q3 12:11TCU 4th & 8 at BAY 39, up 4Close callPunted · 41.4% before the snapGo for it41.6%34% to convertField goal40.7%−0.936% to makePuntTheir call40.9%−0.7average punt
- Q3 8:42TCU 4th & 3 at BAY 3, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snapGo for it45.5%44% to convertField goalTheir call43.4%−2.193% to makePunt32.1%−13.4average punt
- Q3 6:15BAY 4th & 4 at TCU 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.7%46% to convertField goal47.5%−0.281% to makePunt34.4%−13.3average punt
- Q3 5:23BAY 4th & 3 at TCU 4, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snapGo for it48.8%45% to convertField goalTheir call46.8%−2.093% to makePunt32.3%−16.5average punt
- Q3 3:04BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 28, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snapGo for it29.8%−1.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.0%average punt
- Q3 2:15TCU 4th & 3 at BAY 20, up 11Close callKicked a field goal · 68.2% before the snapGo for it68.5%51% to convertField goalTheir call67.5%−1.075% to makePunt58.2%−10.3average punt
- Q4 12:30BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt16.5%−2.8average punt
- Q4 8:02TCU 4th & 4 at BAY 48, up 14Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snapGo for it92.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.8%−0.6average punt
- Q4 5:41TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 40, up 7Close callPunted · 80.8% before the snapGo for it80.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.5%−0.2average punt
- Q4 1:11TCU 4th & 3 at BAY 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.8%52% to convertField goal41.9%−8.925% to makePunt45.4%−5.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 9:32TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.8%97% to makeGo for two24.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:40TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.8%97% to makeGo for two27.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:03BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.3%97% to makeGo for two69.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:15TCU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.1%97% to makeGo for two39.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:07BAY Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.9%97% to makeGo for two65.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:49BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.2%97% to makeGo for two66.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:38TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.5%97% to makeGo for two42.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:53TCU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.6%97% to makeGo for two67.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:35BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.4%97% to makeGo for two33.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:29TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.7%97% to makeGo for two77.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:38TCU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:39BAY Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.9%97% to makeGo for two9.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:39BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.3%97% to makeGo for two16.3%−2.045% to convert
- Q4 4:42BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.5%97% to makeGo for two50.1%−1.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBAYDrive 1DOWNS15 plays · 48 yds · 2:5080% → 79%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
79.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Tre'Von Armstead for 7 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 14:31
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+6
79.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 6 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+21
79.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 21 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 9
OPP 26
-7
79.4%
Bryce Petty sacked by Paul Dawson for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD9 plays · 67 yds · 2:1821% → 23%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
78.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Deante' Gray for 8 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+10
78.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ryan Reid) to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-6
78.1%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Beau Blackshear for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 16
OPP 35
+35
76.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 35 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3FUMBLE6 plays · 41 yds · 1:0477% → 77%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
76.9%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Corry O'Meally) to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+11
76.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+7
76.8%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the TCU 34 Shock Linwood fumbled, forced by Paul Dawson, recovered by TCU Mike TuauaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD3 plays · 66 yds · 0:3424% → 27%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+51
75.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 51 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3074% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1828% → 29%
BAYDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2672% → 70%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
71.7%
Bryce Petty sacked by Mike Tuaua for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+10
71.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 10 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
70.3%
Spencer Roth punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Cameron Echols-Luper at the TCU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2031% → 32%
Q1 2:30
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
68.1%
Ethan Perry punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD3 plays · 77 yds · 0:2068% → 72%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
72.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 66 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2129% → 28%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11FG TD22 plays · 57 yds · 6:0828% → 39%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+47
71.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 47 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+5
73.0%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 5 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
73.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Deante' Gray for no gain to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+10
73.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 10 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
73.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 11 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+5
71.5%
B.J. Catalon run for 5 yds to the TCU 45 B.J. Catalon fumbled, recovered by TCU B.J. Catalon for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
70.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 14 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+4
70.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 4 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+26
70.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 26 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD12 plays · 69 yds · 3:0364% → 71%
Q2 9:30
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+10
61.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 10 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
60.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 8 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
71.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 29 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0433% → 31%
BAYDrive 14DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3070% → 68%
TCUDrive 15FG8 plays · 45 yds · 2:1834% → 43%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
64.7%
B.J. Catalon run for 3 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (Terrell Burt) to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD5 plays · 78 yds · 0:4559% → 71%
BAYDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 0:5958% → 57%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
58.0%
Bryce Petty sacked by Paul Dawson for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
57.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+18
56.6%
Spencer Roth punt for 42 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 18 yds to the TCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18FUMBLE5 plays · -36 yds · 0:1847% → 46%
Q2 0:01
4TH & 6
OPP 48
-40
54.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 40 yards to the TCU 12 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Bayl Shawn OakmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 2:4439% → 40%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
61.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 10 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+15
59.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 15 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
58.2%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Josh Doctson) to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 25
OWN 44
+5
59.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 5 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 20
OWN 49
+12
59.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to B.J. Catalon for 12 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21INT4 plays · 11 yds · 1:0961% → 60%
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
60.0%
Bryce Petty pass intercepted Kevin White return for 6 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22FG8 plays · 20 yds · 2:0646% → 53%
BAYDrive 23FG14 plays · 65 yds · 3:0751% → 57%
Q3 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+18
50.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 18 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD5 plays · 70 yds · 1:2247% → 71%
BAYDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4133% → 30%
Q3 3:04
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+10
30.0%
Spencer Roth punt for 54 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 10 yds to the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26FG5 plays · 52 yds · 0:4068% → 80%
BAYDrive 27TD8 plays · 70 yds · 1:2523% → 45%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
22.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 9 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
24.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+47
44.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 47 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28TD4 plays · 68 yds · 0:4664% → 87%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+59
35.8%
Cameron Echols-Luper pass complete to B.J. Catalon for 59 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29INT TD10 plays · 20 yds · 2:4220% → 4%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
19.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 10 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
20.3%
Bryce Petty sacked by Marcus Mallet for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 29 Bryce Petty fumbled, recovered by Bayl Tre'Von Armstead , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+49
4.2%
Bryce Petty pass intercepted for a TD Marcus Mallet return for 49 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30TD5 plays · 45 yds · 0:515% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 31PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3090% → 92%
BAYDrive 32TD6 plays · 92 yds · 1:119% → 34%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
8.5%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
8.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 17 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
9.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 9 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+28
33.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 28 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 33PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4979% → 81%
Q4 5:41
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
19.3%
Ethan Perry punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 34TD5 plays · 91 yds · 0:4824% → 67%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+41
23.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 26 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Chucky Hunter) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
66.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 25 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 35DOWNS12 plays · 29 yds · 3:0948% → 52%
BAYDrive 36END OF HALF14 plays · 44 yds · 1:0463% → 96%
Q4 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+15
62.8%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Corry O'Meally) to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:42
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 25 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+35.5
FG · Q4 0:00
Chris Callahan 28 yd FG GOOD
+29.4
TD · Q4 6:39
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 28 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+23.6