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BAY

Baylor 28 at Texas 7

TEX
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:26 · Spencer Roth punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense−28.1Pregame prior−11.2Score differential−12.2Garbage-time factor−6.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:02: Terrell Burt 62 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +1.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: Bryce Petty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 2 — BAY win probability +4.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:30: Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST down — BAY win probability +2.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:02: Antwan Goodley 30 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +9.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:00: Shock Linwood 1 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +4.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 9BAY made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:55BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:35BAY 4th & 27 at BAY 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:02TEX 4th & 6 at BAY 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:05TEX 4th & 6 at BAY 29, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:59BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00BAY 4th & 1 at TEX 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−1.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:51BAY 4th & 10 at TEX 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:52TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:12BAY 4th & 1 at TEX 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:40TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 41, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:16BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:26TEX 4th & 21 at TEX 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−3.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:05BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 33, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.8%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:24TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:26BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 43, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:58TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:51BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:52TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:37TEX 4th & 14 at TEX 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:37BAY 4th & 8 at TEX 30, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:38BAY 4th & 1 at TEX 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 0 of 1BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:02BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:02BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:00BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:37BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:42TEX Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · -7 yds · 3:2583% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
17.5%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
17.7%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
17.9%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 4 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
18.1%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
18.2%
Bryce Petty sacked by Steve Edmond for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+5
18.5%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-15
18.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Shock Linwood) to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 22
OWN 23
-5
19.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (Bryce Petty) to the Bayl 18Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 27
OWN 18
0
19.2%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 27
OWN 18
0
19.4%
Spencer Roth punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Bayl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3320% → 19%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
19.5%
Malcolm Brown run for 6 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
19.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Malcolm BrownSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+4
19.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 4 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
20.1%
Daje Johnson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-1
20.5%
Malcolm Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
20.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Jaxon ShipleySimilar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+62
19.2%
Terrell Burt 62 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 45 yds · 4:5719% → 20%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
19.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Johnathan Gray for 7 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-3
19.3%
Johnathan Gray run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+13
19.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 13 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
19.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (Xavien Howard) to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
19.9%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
20.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 5 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+6
20.2%
Johnathan Gray run for 6 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
20.7%
Johnathan Gray run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
20.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
20.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for no gain to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 6
OPP 29
0
20.4%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Jaxon ShipleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0680% → 80%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
19.6%
Shock Linwood run for 12 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
19.3%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
19.5%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
19.6%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Levi NorwoodSimilar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+6
20.1%
Spencer Roth punt for 41 yds , Jaxon Shipley returns for 6 yds to the Texas 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:2920% → 21%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
20.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 2 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+11
20.0%
Armanti Foreman run for 11 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
20.4%
Malcolm Brown run for 2 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
20.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Malcolm Brown for 4 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
21.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass intercepted Orion Stewart return for 1 yd to the Bayl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:3980% → 79%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
19.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
19.6%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Levi NorwoodSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+6
19.7%
Johnny Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
20.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
19.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
19.6%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-10
19.8%
Petty, Bryce rush for 9 yards to the TEXAS31, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Baker, Troy) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 16
50
+6
20.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 6 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
20.7%
Spencer Roth punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:5921% → 21%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+26
21.0%
Johnathan Gray run for 26 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
21.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
21.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
20.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Johnathan GraySimilar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
20.6%
William Russ punt for 47 yds, downed at the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8DOWNS
14 plays · 82 yds · 3:4079% → 80%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+22
21.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 22 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
20.2%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
20.2%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
20.4%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
50
0
20.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
50
+10
20.1%
Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
20.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Antwan Goodley for 11 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
19.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
19.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+11
20.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
19.8%
Bryce Petty run for 5 yds to the Texas 5Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
19.8%
Bryce Petty run for 4 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.1%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Texas 1Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.0%
Bryce Petty run for no gain to the Texas 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9FUMBLE
19 plays · 98 yds · 7:4321% → 26%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
20.8%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 1 yd to the Texas 2Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+23
20.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Alex De La Torre for 23 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.4%
Malcolm Brown run for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-6
22.2%
Tyrone Swoopes run for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
20.9%
Swoopes, Tyrone pass incomplete to Joe, Lorenzo, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Howard, Xavien) 10 yards to the TEXAS35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
22.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Geoff Swaim for 7 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-10
23.5%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Greg Daniels) to the Texas 32Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+10
21.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 10 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
23.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to M.J. McFarland for 5 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
24.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 13 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
24.6%
Malcolm Brown run for 5 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+13
25.7%
Malcolm Brown run for 13 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
26.0%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sedrick Flowers) to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+20
25.4%
Johnathan Gray run for 8 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Orion Stewart) to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
26.1%
Johnathan Gray run for 5 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+6
26.3%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.5%
Tyrone Swoopes run for no gain to the Bayl 1 Tyrone Swoopes fumbled, recovered by Bayl Beau BlackshearSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
21.4%
Bryce Petty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2023% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
23.3%
Malcolm Brown run for 2 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
23.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Malcolm Brown for 6 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
24.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to M.J. McFarland for 1 yd to the Texas 41Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
22.8%
William Russ punt for 40 yds, downed at the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2479% → 77%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
21.5%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
20.8%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-6
21.2%
Bryce Petty sacked by Caleb Bluiett for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 20 BAYLOR Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bryce Petty) to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+12
23.4%
Spencer Roth punt for 56 yds , Jaxon Shipley returns for 12 yds to the Texas 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5026% → 22%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
25.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 34 yds to the TEXAS 30 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (John Harris) to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
25.8%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 1 yd to the Bayl 44Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
25.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Lorenzo JoeSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-5
24.6%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Marcus Hutchins) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 14
OPP 49
-7
22.9%
Tyrone Swoopes sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 44Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 21
OWN 44
0
21.5%
William Russ punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 2:2478% → 91%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
22.1%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
22.4%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+8
23.1%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
21.3%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
22.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+5
22.9%
Bryce Petty run for 5 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+19
21.7%
Spencer Roth run for 19 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
19.0%
Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
19.0%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+30
9.5%
Antwan Goodley 30 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3812% → 12%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.3%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
12.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Geoff SwaimSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
11.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-4
12.0%
William Russ punt for 52 yds , Levi Norwood returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 29 BAYLOR Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Byron Bonds) to the Bayl 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:5889% → 90%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
10.7%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+9
10.4%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
10.3%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+5
10.1%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
10.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Corey ColemanSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
10.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+2
9.2%
Bryce Petty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
9.7%
Spencer Roth punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2811% → 10%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
11.0%
Johnathan Gray run for 6 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+17
10.6%
Johnathan Gray run for 17 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
11.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John HarrisSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
10.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
10.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to M.J. McFarlandSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
10.4%
William Russ punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0791% → 90%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
9.4%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
9.4%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-9
9.1%
Bryce Petty sacked by Steve Edmond for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+1
9.6%
Spencer Roth punt for 47 yds , Jaxon Shipley returns for 1 yd to the Texas 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5910% → 10%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
10.4%
Malcolm Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 33Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+4
10.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 4 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
10.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John HarrisSimilar
Q4 13:52
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
10.1%
William Russ punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5292% → 99%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.8%
Bryce Petty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
7.6%
Shock Linwood run for 13 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
6.9%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
7.1%
Johnny Jefferson run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
50
+17
6.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 17 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
6.2%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
5.9%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+7
5.9%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
5.6%
Shock Linwood run for 12 yds to the Texas 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
5.5%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
5.3%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.4%
Shock Linwood 1 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:082% → 2%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
2.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Geoff Swaim for 6 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 24
-5
1.9%
Johnathan Gray run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 19Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
1.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 9
OWN 19
-5
1.9%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 14Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 14
OWN 14
+10
1.8%
William Russ punt for 56 yds , Levi Norwood returns for 10 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:0099% → 100%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
1.3%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
1.2%
Devin Chafin run for 4 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+7
1.2%
Bryce Petty run for 7 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
1.2%
Devin Chafin run for 5 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
1.1%
Devin Chafin run for 7 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
1.0%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
1.0%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
1.0%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+30
0.2%
Corey Coleman 30 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 4:170% → 1%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
0.1%
Malcolm Brown run for 4 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+4
0.1%
Malcolm Brown run for 4 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+11
0.1%
Malcolm Brown run for 11 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+15
0.1%
Swoopes, Tyrone pass incomplete to Harris, John, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference 15 yards to the TEXAS42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
0.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 16 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
0.1%
Malcolm Brown run for 4 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
0.1%
Malcolm Brown run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+17
0.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 17 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
0.1%
Johnathan Gray run for 5 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
0.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-1
0.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Johnathan Gray for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.2%
Johnathan Gray 2 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)Similar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+13
1.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
0.5%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 32Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+3
0.4%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+8
0.4%
Devin Chafin run for 8 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
0.4%
Devin Chafin run for no gain to the Texas 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:371% → 1%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
0.7%
Johnathan Gray run for 8 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+44
0.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass intercepted Orion Stewart return for 44 yds to the Texas 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:02
Antwan Goodley 30 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)
-9.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00
Bryce Petty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 2
-4.1
TD · Q4 11:00
Shock Linwood 1 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com