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MINN

Minnesota 7 at TCU 30

TCU
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-0.1TCU 76.2%Jaden Oberkrom 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 9:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:19 · Jaden Oberkrom 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Home team on offense+1.3Pregame prior+23.6Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:50: Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 7 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +6.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 10:13: Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 17 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST down — TCU win probability +2.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:01: B.J. Catalon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +3.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 11:02: Jaden Oberkrom 45 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:56: Chris Streveler pass complete to Maxx Williams for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +0.9 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 20 at MINN 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:38MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:19TCU 4th & 15 at MINN 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:17TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:33MINN 4th & 3 at TCU 41, down 10
    Close callPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:37TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:14MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 46, down 17
    Close callPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:54MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:18TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 33, up 24
    Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:02TCU 4th & 27 at MINN 28, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:57MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:54TCU 4th & 10 at MINN 42, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:43TCU 4th & 9 at MINN 20, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00MINN 4th & 1 at TCU 20, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:56MINN 4th & 3 at TCU 12, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:56TCU 4th & 7 at MINN 36, up 23
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:55MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 26, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:29TCU 4th & 3 at MINN 42, up 23
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:21MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 22, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:44TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:50TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:01TCU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:56MINN Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.9%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
75.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-11
75.9%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Davion Pierson and Josh Carraway for a loss of 11 yards to the Minn 15Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+46
75.9%
Peter Mortell punt for 49 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 46 yds to the Minn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:3576% → 76%
Q1 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
75.7%
Boykin, Trevone pass complete to Slanina, Ty for 7 yards to the MINN11 (Thompson,Cedric;Myrick, Jalen), PENALTY MINN offside (Botticelli, Cam) 5 yards to the MINN13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
75.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
75.7%
Trevone Boykin run for no gain to the Minn 18Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
76.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 13 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
76.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 7 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+2
75.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
76.0%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 1
OWN 30
-3
76.0%
Peter Mortell punt for 41 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:2976% → 76%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
76.2%
Boykin, Trevone pass incomplete to Listenbee, K., PENALTY MINN pass interference (Murray, Eric) 15 yards to the TCU41, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
76.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 15 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
76.5%
Trevone Boykin run for 20 yds to the Minn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
76.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to B.J. CatalonSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
76.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to B.J. Catalon for no gain to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-5
76.4%
TCU Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 15
OPP 29
0
76.2%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+46
76.2%
Jaden Oberkrom 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
75.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
75.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
75.8%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Sam Carter return for no gain to the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
76.5%
B.J. Catalon run for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
76.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
76.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+2
76.1%
Ethan Perry punt for 46 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 2 yds to the Minn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
76.3%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+13
76.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Lincoln Plsek for 13 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
76.1%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
76.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+16
76.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 16 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
75.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx Williams, broken up by Derrick KindredSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
75.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 7 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
75.8%
Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+25
76.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 40 yds, downed at the TCU 1 MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul (Marcus Jones) to the TCU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
77.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 4 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+7
77.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 7 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
77.3%
Boykin, Trevone pass complete to Gray, Deante' for 11 yards to the TCU38, out-of-bounds (Murray, Eric), PENALTY TCU holding (Williams, R.) 10 yards to the TCU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 20
OWN 17
-4
77.2%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 13Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 24
OWN 13
0
77.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 24
OWN 13
+15
76.8%
Trevone Boykin run for 15 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
76.6%
Ethan Perry punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:1523% → 23%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
77.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to David Cobb for 16 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
76.5%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
76.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+35
76.7%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Derrick Kindred return for 35 yds to the Minn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:5578% → 85%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
78.2%
Deante' Gray run for 21 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
78.2%
B.J. Catalon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 7Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 7 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:3616% → 16%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.6%
Rodrick Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
83.3%
Rodrick Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
83.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 4 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
83.7%
Berkley Edwards run for 2 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
83.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
84.2%
Peter Mortell punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to B.J. CatalonSimilar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
86.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 10 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
86.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
86.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for 7 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+3
86.5%
Trevone Boykin pass intercepted Briean Boddy-Calhoun return for 3 yds to the Minn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
84.7%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 39 David Cobb fumbled, forced by Paul Dawson, recovered by TCU Paul DawsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:1288% → 92%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
87.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 17 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
87.7%
Aaron Green run for 10 yds to the Minn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
87.7%
Aaron Green run for 11 yds to the Minn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.7%
B.J. Catalon run for no gain to the Minn 1Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.3%
B.J. Catalon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
90.9%
Kirkwood, D. rush for no gain to the MINN26 (Tuaua, Mike), PENALTY TCU offside (Tuaua, Mike) 5 yards to the MINN31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 5
OWN 31
+4
90.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 4 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
90.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
90.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+7
90.9%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Williams, Maxx, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Carter, Sam) 7 yards to the MINN40, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
90.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
90.6%
Berkley Edwards run for 1 yd to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-4
90.7%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Davion Pierson for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 37Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
91.0%
Peter Mortell punt for 41 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for no gain to the TCU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 64 yds · 0:0093% → 94%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
93.2%
Deante' Gray run for 7 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+6
93.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 6 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
93.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 21 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
93.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 5 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+11
93.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 11 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
93.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to B.J. CatalonSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
93.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 12 yds David Porter fumbled, forced by Jack Lynn, recovered by Minn De'Vondre CampbellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17END OF HALF
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
92.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx Williams, broken up by Sam CarterSimilar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+14
92.9%
David Cobb run for 14 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
92.6%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+9
92.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Goodger for 9 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
92.4%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-1
92.2%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 43Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
92.5%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Minn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4295% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Deante' Gray for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
94.6%
Trevone Boykin run for no gain to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
95.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to B.J. Catalon for 3 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 14:18
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
94.9%
Ethan Perry punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
93.5%
David Cobb run for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
93.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 31 Mitch Leidner fumbled, forced by Chucky Hunter, recovered by TCU Derrick KindredSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20FG
8 plays · 3 yds · 1:5896% → 99%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
95.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 20 yds to the Minn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
95.7%
Catalon, B.J. rush for 8 yards to the MINN3 (Wilson, Damien), PENALTY TCU holding (Foltz, Brady) 10 yards to the MINN21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 20
OPP 21
+3
95.7%
Trevone Boykin run for 3 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 17
OPP 18
-5
95.6%
TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 22
OPP 23
-15
95.6%
TCU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Trevone Boykin) to the Minn 38Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 37
OPP 38
+10
95.6%
Trevone Boykin run for 10 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 27
OPP 28
0
95.6%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 27
OPP 28
+45
99.1%
Jaden Oberkrom 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 4 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx Williams, broken up by Derrick KindredSimilar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 41 yds, downed at the TCU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.2%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
99.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 9 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+15
99.2%
B.J. Catalon run for 15 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Ja'Juan StorySimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
99.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-Luper, broken up by Briean Boddy-CalhounSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
99.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
99.2%
Ethan Perry punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Minn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23INT
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
99.3%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+6
99.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 6 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.3%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+1
99.3%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 33Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+31
99.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 31 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
99.3%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Chris Hackett return for 12 yds to the TCU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:36100% → 100%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.6%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+34
99.6%
Trevone Boykin run for 34 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
99.7%
TCU Penalty, personal foul (Trevone Boykin) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
50
+8
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 8 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+7
99.6%
Trevone Boykin run for 7 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Deante' GraySimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+14
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to B.J. Catalon for 14 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.7%
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd to the Minn 20Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Deante' Gray for no gain to the Minn 20Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
99.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Ty SlaninaSimilar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
99.8%
Jaden Oberkrom 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:410% → 1%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.8%
Berkley Edwards run for 3 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
99.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 4 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+34
99.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 34 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Donovahn Jones, broken up by Kevin WhiteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+6
99.8%
Chris Streveler run for 6 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+1
99.7%
Chris Streveler run for 1 yd to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
99.8%
Chris Streveler run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+10
99.8%
Chris Streveler run for 10 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-1
99.8%
Rodrick Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 12Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+12
98.9%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Maxx Williams for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
99.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to B.J. Catalon for 11 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.1%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+15
99.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 15 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.1%
B.J. Catalon run for 3 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
99.1%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 7
OPP 36
-4
99.1%
Trevone Boykin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 36 Trevone Boykin fumbled, forced by Jack Lynn, recovered by TCU Trevone BoykinSimilar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
99.0%
Ethan Perry punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Minn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
99.3%
Chris Streveler run for 11 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
99.3%
Donnell Kirkwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 20Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+6
99.3%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Lincoln Plsek for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 5
OWN 26
-2
99.3%
Peter Mortell punt for 51 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 6 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+6
99.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Deante' Gray for 6 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+13
99.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 13 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
99.5%
Trevorris Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to David Porter, broken up by Damarius TravisSimilar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+12
99.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 12 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Ethan Perry punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
99.6%
Chris Streveler run for 2 yds to the Minn 15Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+2
99.6%
Rodrick Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+5
99.6%
Chris Streveler run for 5 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
99.6%
Peter Mortell punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Cameron Echols-Luper at the TCU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.8%
Trevorris Johnson run for 1 yd to the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:50
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 7 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
+6.9
FG · Q3 11:02
Jaden Oberkrom 45 yd FG GOOD
+3.5
TD · Q2 9:01
B.J. Catalon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com