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UTSA

UTSA 13 at Oklahoma State 43

OKST
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:59 · Kristian Stern punt for 45 yds , Tyreek Hill returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+23.8Home team on offense+7.1Score differential+2.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:27: Daxx Garman pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 18 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +4.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:04: Ben Grogan 47 yd FG GOOD — OKST win probability +3.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:03: Blake Bogenschutz run for 24 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) — UTSA win probability +4.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:14: Sean Ianno 38 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +2.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:56: Desmond Roland run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UTSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:10OKST 4th & 12 at OKST 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:09UTSA 4th & 3 at OKST 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.9%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:28UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 36, down 4
    Close callPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:21UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:09UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 44, down 11
    Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:45OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:59UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:08OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:50UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:43UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 37, down 18
    Close callPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:48OKST 4th & 7 at UTSA 7, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:48UTSA 4th & 18 at UTSA 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−1.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:08OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 29, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:03OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:32UTSA 4th & 15 at UTSA 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:22OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 15, up 17
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:14UTSA 4th & 13 at OKST 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−4.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 14:14OKST 4th & 14 at OKST 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 12:23UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  22. Q4 8:56UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:41OKST 4th & 3 at UTSA 3, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:00UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 45, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:28OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:30OKST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:27OKST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:03UTSA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:56OKST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.0%
David Glasco II run for 11 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
85.0%
David Glasco II run for no gain to the TexSA 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
85.0%
David Glasco II run for 1 yd to the TexSA 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
85.0%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Marcellus Mack, broken up by Kevin PetersonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+8
85.0%
Kristian Stern punt for 51 yds , Tyreek Hill returns for 8 yds to the OKSt 45 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the OKSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
84.5%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to Tyreek HillSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-2
84.5%
Tyreek Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 8Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
84.4%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 12
OWN 8
+31
84.4%
Kip Smith punt for 50 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for 31 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:0116% → 17%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
83.9%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 28Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
84.0%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Kevin PetersonSimilar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+14
84.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 14 yds to the OKSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
83.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
83.9%
Brandon Armstrong run for 3 yds to the OKSt 9Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+2
84.0%
Tucker Carter run for 2 yds to the OKSt 7Similar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
82.9%
Sean Ianno 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:4183% → 84%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.9%
Rennie Childs run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
83.0%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
82.9%
Garman, Daxx pass incomplete to Lacy, Chris, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Starling) 15 yards to the OSU44, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
83.3%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
83.1%
Rennie Childs run for 3 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+36
83.1%
Daxx Garman pass complete to David Glidden for 36 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
83.5%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the TexSA 17Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-10
83.5%
Garman, Daxx pass incomplete to Seales, Jhajuan, PENALTY OSU holding (Koenig, Daniel) 10 yards to the UTSA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 20
OPP 27
0
83.3%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 20
OPP 27
-5
83.1%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 25
OPP 32
+18
83.1%
Tyreek Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (Jason Neill) to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
83.5%
Desmond Roland run for 1 yd to the TexSA 13Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+8
83.5%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Tyreek Hill for 8 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+4
83.3%
Desmond Roland run for 4 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.5%
Desmond Roland run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
82.9%
Tucker Carter run for 1 yd to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
82.9%
Tucker Carter run for 2 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+6
83.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Josiah Monroe for 6 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
83.0%
Kristian Stern punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyreek Hill at the OKSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:4682% → 85%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
82.3%
Desmond Roland run for 5 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+17
82.3%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 17 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
82.6%
Desmond Roland run for 8 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+15
82.9%
Garman, Daxx pass incomplete to Washington, J., PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Okotcha) 15 yards to the UTSA38, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
83.0%
Tyreek Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+33
85.0%
Daxx Garman pass complete to James Washington for 33 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0916% → 15%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
84.5%
Brandon Armstrong run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 18Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+4
84.6%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 4 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
85.3%
Tucker Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
85.5%
Kristian Stern punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyreek Hill at the OKSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0485% → 85%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
85.2%
Daxx Garman sacked by Cody Rogers and Kennedy Ubabuike for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+4
85.1%
Desmond Roland run for 4 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
85.1%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+3
84.7%
Kip Smith punt for 51 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for 3 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
85.1%
Tucker Carter sacked by Josh Furman for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 10Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+7
85.1%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Cole Hubble for 7 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+9
85.3%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 9 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
85.0%
David Glasco II run for 7 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+5
84.6%
Brandon Armstrong run for 5 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
84.7%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
84.6%
Tucker Carter run for 4 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
84.5%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Kam Jones, broken up by Larry StephensSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
85.0%
Kristian Stern punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyreek Hill at the OKSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
86.2%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the OKSt 21Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
86.1%
Rennie Childs run for 5 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-2
85.9%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 24Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 6
OWN 24
-2
85.5%
Kip Smith punt for 51 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 22 TEXASSAN Penalty, running into the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
85.8%
Kam Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
85.9%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Marcellus MackSimilar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
86.3%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 11
OWN 22
-3
86.5%
Kristian Stern punt for 45 yds , Tyreek Hill returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4786% → 86%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
86.4%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
86.4%
Tyreek Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 31Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
86.4%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to Brandon SheperdSimilar
Q2 6:08
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+7
86.0%
Kip Smith punt for 49 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for 7 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
86.7%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Jordan SternsSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
86.8%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Brandon Armstrong for 6 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
86.6%
Tucker Carter run for no gain to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
87.0%
Kristian Stern punt for 29 yds, downed at the OKSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:4987% → 92%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
87.2%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 32 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
87.6%
Desmond Roland run for 13 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
87.6%
Desmond Roland run for 5 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-6
87.6%
Daxx Garman sacked by Drew Douglas for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 18Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+18
91.7%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 18 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:449% → 8%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
90.8%
Tucker Carter run for 1 yd to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
91.0%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Aaron GrubbSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+5
94.1%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Josiah Monroe for 5 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+2
92.3%
Kristian Stern punt for 43 yds , Tyreek Hill returns for 2 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 1:2992% → 97%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
91.9%
Rennie Childs run for 12 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
91.9%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to Marcell AtemanSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
91.9%
Daxx Garman sacked by Jason Neill for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+15
91.7%
Rennie Childs run for 15 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
92.2%
Daxx Garman run for 3 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
93.3%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+19
93.1%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Chris Lacy for 19 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+47
96.6%
Ben Grogan 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:1296% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.7%
Rennie Childs run for 7 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
95.8%
Tyreek Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
95.7%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Tyreek Hill for 4 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+43
95.9%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 43 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.0%
Desmond Roland run for no gain to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+12
96.0%
Desmond Roland run for 12 yds to the TexSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-14
96.0%
Desmond Roland run for 1 yd to the TexSA 7 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, personal foul (Zachary Crabtree) to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 0
OPP 22
+13
96.1%
Tyreek Hill run for 13 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
95.9%
Tyreek Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSA 2Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 0
OPP 2
-5
95.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 7Similar
Q3 10:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
96.5%
Ben Grogan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
96.5%
David Glasco II run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 16
OWN 20
-2
96.6%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 18Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 18
OWN 18
0
96.6%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Cole Hubble, broken up by Jimmy BeanSimilar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 18
OWN 18
0
96.6%
Kristian Stern punt for 53 yds, downed at the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.9%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to Austin Hays, broken up by Duke WheelerSimilar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
96.9%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
96.9%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 10
OWN 29
-3
96.7%
Kip Smith punt for 41 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:403% → 8%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
96.8%
Brandon Armstrong run for 2 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+21
96.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
50
+2
96.7%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 2 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+13
96.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 13 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
96.4%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 11 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
92.3%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 24 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.4%
Desmond Roland run for 8 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
94.6%
Daxx Garman run for 1 yd to the OKSt 34Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
94.5%
Desmond Roland run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 31Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
94.1%
Kip Smith punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
94.1%
Brandon Armstrong run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-15
94.0%
Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Williams, PENALTY UTSA personal foul (Leonard) 15 yards to the UTSA18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 22
OWN 18
+4
94.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 18
OWN 22
+3
94.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Miles Lerch for 3 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
94.6%
Kristian Stern punt for 69 yds, downed at the OKSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
95.1%
Desmond Roland run for 4 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+4
95.1%
Desmond Roland run for 4 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+1
95.0%
Desmond Roland run for 1 yd to the OKSt 15Similar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
94.6%
Kip Smith punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25FG
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:266% → 8%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
94.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 13 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
94.1%
Blake Bogenschutz run for no gain to the OKSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-3
94.4%
Blake Bogenschutz run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 21
0
94.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Josiah MonroeSimilar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+38
92.3%
Sean Ianno 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.5%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the OKSt 25Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
Desmond Roland run for no gain to the OKSt 25Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
94.2%
Daxx Garman sacked by Robert Singletary and Jason Neill for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 21Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
93.7%
Kip Smith punt for 48 yds, downed at the TexSA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
92.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kam Jones for 4 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+1
92.1%
David Glasco II run for 1 yd to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-2
92.2%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Josh Furman for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
93.0%
Kristian Stern punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyreek Hill at the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:2795% → 99%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+43
95.2%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 43 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
95.7%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+11
95.7%
Desmond Roland run for 11 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
95.7%
Daxx Garman pass complete to David Glidden for 22 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Desmond Roland run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
99.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 9 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
98.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Marcellus MackSimilar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+4
98.9%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.9%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 1 yd to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
98.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-9
98.9%
Blake Bogenschutz sacked by Jerel Morrow for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 17
OWN 30
+5
99.0%
Kristian Stern punt for 48 yds , Tyreek Hill returns for 5 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 30FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:5499% → 100%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
99.3%
Desmond Roland run for 12 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.3%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Austin Hays for 8 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
99.3%
Desmond Roland run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.3%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Austin Hays for 5 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
99.3%
Rennie Childs run for 4 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+7
99.3%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 7 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
99.3%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+14
99.3%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 14 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+6
99.3%
Daxx Garman pass complete to Marcell Ateman for 6 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
99.3%
Garman, Daxx pass incomplete to Ateman, Marcell, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Starling) 15 yards to the UTSA5, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.3%
Daxx Garman pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.3%
Vincent Taylor run for 1 yd to the TexSA 4Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.3%
Vincent Taylor run for 1 yd to the TexSA 3Similar
Q4 0:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
99.6%
Ben Grogan 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 31INT TD
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:411% → 0%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
99.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 8 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+13
99.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 13 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.5%
David Glasco II run for 7 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Kam Jones, broken up by Josh FurmanSimilar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incomplete to Cole Hubble, broken up by Ashton LampkinSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+50
100.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass intercepted for a TD Ashton Lampkin return for 50 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:27
Daxx Garman pass complete to Brandon Sheperd for 18 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q3 6:03
Blake Bogenschutz run for 24 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)
-4.1
FG · Q2 0:04
Ben Grogan 47 yd FG GOOD
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com