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ISU

Iowa State 20 at Iowa 17

IOWA
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:34 · Dillon Kidd punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jarvis West at the IowSt 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+25.0Home team on offense+2.5Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:50: Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +10.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:33: Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 27 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +35.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:27: IOWA Penalty, False Start (Riley McCarron) to the Iowa 13 — IOWA win probability +8.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 4:08: Marshall Koehn 44 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +16.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:02: Cole Netten 42 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +35.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:07IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:47ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:54IOWA 4th & 1 at ISU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    83.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:53IOWA 4th & 1 at ISU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    80.7%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:44ISU 4th & 7 at IOWA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:34IOWA 4th & 5 at ISU 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:38ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:46IOWA 4th & 8 at ISU 16, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:23ISU 4th & 10 at IOWA 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:50ISU 4th & 1 at IOWA 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:49IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−2.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:59ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.2
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:33IOWA 4th & 6 at ISU 36, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−1.6
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:08IOWA 4th & 5 at ISU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−5.6
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−18.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:02ISU 4th & 1 at IOWA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−11.7
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−27.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:53IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:52IOWA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:50ISU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:33ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3785% → 85%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.4%
Mark Weisman run for 2 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
85.2%
Mark Weisman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 25Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.0%
Jake Rudock run for 7 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+58
84.9%
Dillon Kidd punt for 48 yds IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the IowSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:0715% → 16%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
84.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 16 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
84.7%
Sam B. Richardson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
84.6%
Aaron Wimberly run for 4 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-2
84.6%
Aaron Wimberly run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+64
84.3%
Colin Downing punt for 39 yds, downed at the IOWA 30 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (25 Yards) to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3TD
17 plays · 55 yds · 7:4184% → 84%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
84.4%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Ray HamiltonSimilar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
84.2%
Tevaun Smith run for 1 yd to the Iowa 46Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+14
84.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 14 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
84.3%
Damon Bullock run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 41Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+6
84.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 6 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
84.1%
Jake Rudock run for 4 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
83.8%
Mark Weisman run for 2 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
84.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Mark Weisman for 8 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+5
84.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 5 yds to the IowSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
84.0%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 20
OPP 26
+14
83.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 14 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+2
83.9%
Mark Weisman run for 2 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+6
83.5%
Mark Weisman run for 6 yds to the IowSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
83.6%
Mark Weisman run for 1 yd to the IowSt 3Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
83.6%
Mark Weisman run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 4Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
83.4%
Damon Bullock run for 3 yds to the IowSt 1Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.4%
Mark Weisman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mick Ellis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 3:5716% → 19%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
83.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to P.J. Harris for 5 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
83.7%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 8 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
83.2%
Sam B. Richardson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
83.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to P.J. Harris for 8 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+3
82.8%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 3 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
82.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 4 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
82.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to DeVondrick NealySimilar
Q2 14:31
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+7
82.7%
Sam B. Richardson run for 7 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
82.1%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 3 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
81.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Tad EcbySimilar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
82.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to DeVondrick NealySimilar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
80.9%
Cole Netten 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:5681% → 81%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.3%
Jake Rudock run for 5 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
81.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 9 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
81.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for 5 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
81.7%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+6
81.3%
Mark Weisman run for 6 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
81.7%
Jake Rudock sacked by Cory Morrissey for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 48Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 16
OWN 48
+11
80.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 11 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
81.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
80.5%
Dillon Kidd punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jarvis West at the IowSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4620% → 20%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
79.9%
Aaron Wimberly run for 5 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 5
OWN 11
0
79.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to P.J. HarrisSimilar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 5
OWN 11
0
80.5%
Colin Downing punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Matt VandeBerg at the Iowa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:4081% → 87%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+33
80.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Ray Hamilton for 33 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
81.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 5 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+5
81.8%
Mark Weisman run for 5 yds to the IowSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
81.7%
Damon Bullock run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 19Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+3
81.5%
Damon Bullock run for 3 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
80.9%
Damon Bullock run for no gain to the IowSt 16Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+10
80.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jacob Hillyer for 10 yds to the IowSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
81.6%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
81.6%
Mark Weisman run for 1 yd to the IowSt 5Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.7%
Jake Rudock run for 5 yds for a TD IOWA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined, (Mick Ellis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8FUMBLE
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:2013% → 17%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to E.J. BibbsSimilar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
86.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 26 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
85.6%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 3 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
85.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+19
86.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 19 yds to the Iowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
84.9%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 3 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+22
84.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 22 yds to the Iowa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 0
OPP 2
+1
83.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 1 yd DeVondrick Nealy fumbled, forced by Quinton Alston, recovered by Iowa Greg MabinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4087% → 87%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
86.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 17Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+13
86.6%
Jake Rudock run for 13 yds to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
86.6%
Jake Rudock sacked by Trent Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:3114% → 13%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
85.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 4 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
86.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to P.J. Harris for 3 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+14
85.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Brett Medders for 14 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
85.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 1 yd to the Iowa 47, DeVondrick Nealy fumbled, forced by Jordan Lomax, recovered by IowSt Jamison Lalk , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 12
50
0
85.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Aaron WimberlySimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 12
50
-10
86.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the IowSt 40Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 22
OWN 40
+12
86.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 12 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
86.7%
Colin Downing punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2287% → 87%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
87.0%
Damon Bullock run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 14Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+8
86.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Ray Hamilton for 8 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-5
86.5%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (Andrew Donnal) to the Iowa 17Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+8
86.5%
Jake Rudock pass intercepted T.J. Mutcherson return for 8 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:5616% → 26%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
84.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 7 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+17
83.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for 17 yds to the Iowa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
83.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for 5 yds to the Iowa 3Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
83.8%
Sam B. Richardson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 2Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
84.8%
Sam B. Richardson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 1Similar
Q3 6:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:4578% → 76%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
78.1%
Jake Rudock run for 8 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+1
79.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 1 yd to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
78.2%
Jake Rudock run for 3 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+9
78.2%
Mark Weisman run for 9 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
79.5%
Mark Weisman run for 2 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
79.8%
Jake Rudock sacked by Brandon Jensen for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
78.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Ray HamiltonSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-1
77.0%
Jake Rudock sacked by Cory Morrissey for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 43Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
75.8%
Dillon Kidd punt for 42 yds, downed at the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3925% → 23%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
75.3%
Sam B. Richardson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+6
75.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for 6 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
75.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for no gain to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 0:59
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
76.6%
Colin Downing punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Matt VandeBerg at the Iowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:1878% → 77%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
77.6%
Damon Bullock run for 5 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+8
79.2%
Damon Bullock run for 8 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
79.3%
Jake Rudock run for 7 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+1
79.9%
Damon Bullock run for 1 yd to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+6
79.1%
Mark Weisman run for 6 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
79.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to John Kenny for 2 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
79.6%
Damon Bullock run for 2 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
79.0%
Damon Bullock run for no gain to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
76.9%
Dillon Kidd punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jarvis West at the IowSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 3:5326% → 68%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
74.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 5 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+12
73.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 12 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
72.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Jarvis West for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Lomax) to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
69.7%
Aaron Wimberly run for 4 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+9
68.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 9 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
67.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Brett Medders for 6 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+12
67.3%
Sam B. Richardson run for 12 yds to the Iowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
32.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 27 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 3:1945% → 62%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
45.3%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (Riley McCarron) to the Iowa 13Similar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+15
45.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Mitchell Meyers) to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
43.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 9 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+4
47.1%
Mark Weisman run for 4 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
46.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 14 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
48.6%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
48.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 9 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+5
46.2%
Mark Weisman run for 5 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
49.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Mark WeismanSimilar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
48.7%
Damon Bullock run for 5 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
45.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jacob HillyerSimilar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+44
61.6%
Marshall Koehn 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18FUMBLE
18 plays · 51 yds · 3:5747% → 94%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.0%
Aaron Wimberly run for 7 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
49.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 9 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
48.1%
Aaron Wimberly run for 5 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
46.8%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Aaron WimberlySimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+7
47.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Brett Medders for 7 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
45.0%
Aaron Wimberly run for 4 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
43.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Brett MeddersSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+10
44.4%
Richardson, Sam B. pass incomplete to Bibbs, E.J., PENALTY IOWA holding (Jewell, Josey) 10 yards to the IOWA33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
41.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for 2 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-1
41.1%
Aaron Wimberly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 32Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+5
40.8%
Wimberly, Aaron rush for 2 yards to the IOWA30, PENALTY IOWA offside (Gair, Anthony) 5 yards to the IOWA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+3
39.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for 3 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+42
6.0%
Cole Netten 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:02
Cole Netten 42 yd FG GOOD
-35.6
TD · Q4 7:33
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 27 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
-35.2
FG · Q4 4:08
Marshall Koehn 44 yd FG GOOD
+16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com