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UCLA

UCLA 20 at Texas 17

TEX
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:24 · Matt Mengel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the TEXAS 43 TEXAS Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Texas 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior−11.8Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−1.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:26: Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Nate Iese for 3 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +13.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 9:13: Ka'imi Fairbairn 25 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +12.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:13: Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK) — TEX win probability +40.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:02: Malcolm Brown run for 5 yds to the Texas 30 — TEX win probability +24.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:00: Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Jordan Payton for 33 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +66.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 12:01UCLA 4th & 7 at TEX 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:34TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:37UCLA 4th & 12 at TEX 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:32TEX 4th & 8 at UCLA 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:24UCLA 4th & 21 at UCLA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−2.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:33TEX 4th & 8 at UCLA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.4%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:05UCLA 4th & 10 at TEX 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−2.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:37TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:13UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 33, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:00TEX 4th & 4 at UCLA 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:42UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 32, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:40TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:11UCLA 4th & 16 at TEX 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−3.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    49.9%−2.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:10TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:48UCLA 4th & 1 at TEX 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.4%−6.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−19.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:13UCLA 4th & 3 at TEX 7, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.0%−3.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−24.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:06TEX 4th & 15 at TEX 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−6.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:02UCLA 4th & 1 at TEX 31, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.0 ptsWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.4%−5.0
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−8.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 2:01TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:26UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:13TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:00UCLA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−2.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:3568% → 66%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
32.5%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Nate Iese for 12 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
32.6%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-14
32.6%
UCLA Penalty, Face Mask (14 yards) (-14 Yards) to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+22
32.8%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Paul Perkins for 22 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
32.9%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-8
33.0%
Brett Hundley sacked by Malcom Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+6
33.5%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Tyler Scott for 6 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
33.6%
Matt Mengel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:2234% → 35%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
33.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 5 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+4
33.8%
Malcolm Brown run for 4 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+4
34.0%
Malcolm Brown run for 4 yds to the Texas 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
34.4%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Malcolm Brown for 5 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+13
34.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 13 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
35.3%
Tyrone Swoopes sacked by Eddie Vanderdoes for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+10
34.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 10 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
35.4%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Malcolm Brown for no gain to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
35.2%
William Russ punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 6:3565% → 63%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
35.4%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 9Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+8
35.8%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 8 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+6
36.1%
Brett Hundley run for 6 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
35.9%
Myles Jack run for 3 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-2
36.0%
Myles Jack run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 24Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+11
36.9%
Brett Hundley run for 11 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
36.3%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
35.9%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Devin Fuller for 2 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
36.0%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
36.0%
Jordon James run for 6 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+20
35.5%
Jordon James run for 20 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
35.4%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Mossi Johnson for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 9
OPP 26
-9
35.6%
Jerry Neuheisel sacked by Hassan Ridgeway and Duke Thomas for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 18
OPP 35
+6
37.1%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Jordon James for 6 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+47
36.7%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:4337% → 42%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
36.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 8 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+15
37.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 15 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
38.2%
Malcolm Brown run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 5
50
+22
38.7%
Malcolm Brown run for 22 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
39.8%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 2 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+8
40.0%
Malcolm Brown run for 8 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
40.2%
Malcolm Brown run for 3 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
40.4%
Malcolm Brown run for 1 yd to the UCLA 14Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-2
39.8%
Tyrone Swoopes sacked by Deon Hollins for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
41.5%
Nick Rose 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 1:4260% → 58%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
40.0%
Nate Starks run for 1 yd to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
39.9%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incomplete to Nate IeseSimilar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+14
40.7%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Paul Perkins for 14 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
39.6%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 13
OWN 20
-1
40.1%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 19Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 14
OWN 19
-7
41.1%
Jerry Neuheisel sacked by Jason Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 12Similar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 21
OWN 12
+50
41.8%
Matt Mengel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the TEXAS 43 TEXAS Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Texas 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6TD
17 plays · 62 yds · 6:1543% → 58%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
43.1%
Johnathan Gray run for 3 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
43.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 6 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
43.8%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 1 yd to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
44.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 1 yd to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-12
45.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 3 yds to the TEXAS 48 TEXAS Penalty, Clipping (15 Yards) to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 21
OWN 37
+15
43.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 15 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+8
45.4%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 8 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
46.6%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
46.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Johnathan GraySimilar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
46.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Jaxon ShipleySimilar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+33
44.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 33 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-10
48.7%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sedrick Flowers) to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+3
47.4%
Johnathan Gray run for 3 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
47.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 10 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to M.J. McFarland for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 1:4344% → 43%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.1%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Devin Fuller for 2 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
56.4%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Devin Fuller for 5 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
56.9%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
56.8%
TEXAS Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
55.1%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Jordon James for 3 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+13
54.6%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 13 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
52.5%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
53.1%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
54.7%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incomplete to Jordon JamesSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
56.7%
Adam Searl punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
56.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2143% → 61%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+58
56.9%
Paul Perkins run for 58 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
52.1%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Devin Fuller for 6 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+3
52.3%
Jordon James run for 3 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
54.5%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the Texas 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
52.8%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds to the Texas 3Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
53.2%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q3 12:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.3%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Nate Iese for 3 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:4346% → 44%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Jaxon ShipleySimilar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
45.8%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 7 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
45.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Jaxon ShipleySimilar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
44.3%
William Russ punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0957% → 57%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
42.6%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Paul Perkins for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 22Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+6
43.5%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+5
43.5%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Devin Lucien for 5 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
43.4%
Matt Mengel punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0247% → 49%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
47.0%
Malcolm Brown run for 4 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+8
49.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 8 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
50.6%
Malcolm Brown run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 7
50
0
51.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Jaxon ShipleySimilar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 7
50
+3
49.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Malcolm Brown for 3 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
48.5%
William Russ punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:1156% → 55%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
43.9%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Jordan Payton for 11 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
43.7%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
42.8%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
42.8%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incomplete to Nate IeseSimilar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
44.6%
Adam Searl punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5748% → 47%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
48.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John HarrisSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
47.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Johnathan Gray for 4 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+2
47.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Johnathan Gray for 2 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+6
47.1%
William Russ punt for 58 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 6 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:5555% → 54%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
44.8%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Jordan Payton for 6 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+5
44.2%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Paul Perkins for 5 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
44.2%
Jordon James run for 9 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+2
41.8%
Jordon James run for 2 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
43.1%
Jordon James run for 18 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
39.9%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Devin Lucien for 6 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+4
39.1%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-16
39.7%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Devin Lucien for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 39 UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 26
OWN 46
+10
43.9%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Devin Fuller for 10 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 16
OPP 44
0
44.0%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incomplete to Devin FullerSimilar
Q3 2:11
4TH & 16
OPP 44
0
46.1%
Adam Searl punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:4048% → 47%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+16
48.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 16 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
49.4%
Malcolm Brown run for 6 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
50.1%
Malcolm Brown run for 1 yd to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
48.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John HarrisSimilar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+11
47.1%
William Russ punt for 62 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 11 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17FG
17 plays · 71 yds · 5:4954% → 72%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
45.6%
Jordon James run for 5 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
44.6%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
44.5%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+9
42.2%
Paul Perkins run for 9 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
41.3%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+14
41.3%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Jordan Payton for 14 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
40.6%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 2 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+7
39.1%
Nate Starks run for 7 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 1
OPP 28
0
40.3%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+9
42.8%
Myles Jack run for 9 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
38.3%
Eddie Vanderdoes run for 2 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-1
38.3%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 18Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+4
41.4%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jordan Hicks) to the Texas 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
38.4%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the Texas 10Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
38.5%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
40.5%
Myles Jack run for no gain to the Texas 7Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+25
28.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:5035% → 85%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
35.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 3 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
34.9%
Johnathan Gray run for 2 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
34.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 6 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
36.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 7 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+7
39.6%
Johnathan Gray run for 7 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
38.7%
Johnathan Gray run for 1 yd to the Texas 46Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+13
38.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 13 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+31
40.5%
Johnathan Gray run for 31 yds to the UCLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
42.8%
Malcolm Brown run for 8 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-6
44.3%
TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-6 Yards) to the UCLA 8Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
85.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:4034% → 40%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
65.6%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Paul Perkins for 30 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
60.5%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Devin Lucien for 4 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+6
59.6%
Jordon James run for 6 yds to the Texas 25 Jordon James fumbled, forced by Steve Edmond, recovered by Texas Paul Boyette Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5684% → 81%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.6%
Malcolm Brown run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
84.2%
Malcolm Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John HarrisSimilar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
81.3%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Josh Turner) to the Texas 20Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+45
81.4%
William Russ punt for 58 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 45 yds to the Texas 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
15.4%
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Jordan Payton for 33 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4233% → 28%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
32.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John HarrisSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
28.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 3 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
27.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for no gain to the Texas 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2391% → 94%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
9.2%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+2
5.9%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
6.2%
Myles Jack run for 4 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
6.0%
Eddie Vanderdoes run for 2 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:00
Jerry Neuheisel pass complete to Jordan Payton for 33 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
-66
TD · Q4 5:13
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)
+40.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:02
Malcolm Brown run for 5 yds to the Texas 30
+24.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com