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NWST

Northwestern State 6 at Baylor 70

BAY
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadNWST aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreNWST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG—BAY 99.9%Chris Moore 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 56 · Q3 2:32
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:32 · Chris Moore 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior+29.3Home team on offense+34.0Score differential+26.9Blowout margin+16.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.1Garbage-time factor+7.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:11: Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 81 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:19: Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 42 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 12:54: Chris Moore 25 yd FG GOOD — NWST win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: NWST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:49: Shock Linwood run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NWST made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 7:31NWST 4th & 5 at BAY 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:56NWST 4th & 8 at NWST 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:21BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:51NWST 4th & 14 at NWST 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:54NWST 4th & 8 at BAY 8, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:55BAY 4th & 3 at NWST 37, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:54NWST 4th & 6 at NWST 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:21NWST 4th & 14 at NWST 17, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:21NWST 4th & 8 at NWST 37, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:35NWST 4th & 17 at NWST 14, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:52NWST 4th & 16 at NWST 45, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:32NWST 4th & 6 at BAY 11, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:04NWST 4th & 6 at BAY 43, down 57
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:30BAY 4th & 5 at NWST 18, up 57
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:50NWST 4th & 3 at BAY 37, down 64
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 13:42BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:19BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:11BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:19BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:49BAY Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:13BAY Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:02BAY Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:57BAY Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:32BAY Touchdown, up 56 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:14BAY Touchdown, up 63 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
99.6%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+5
99.6%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+24
99.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Shock Linwood for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
50
+50
99.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 50 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 2INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:450% → 1%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
99.6%
Garrett Atzenweiler run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 26Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+7
99.6%
Zach Adkins run for 7 yds to the NWSt 33Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+25
99.5%
Zach Adkins pass intercepted Xavien Howard return for 25 yds to the NWSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.5%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the NWSt 32Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
99.5%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+29
99.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Shock Linwood for 29 yds to the NWSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
99.5%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 5Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the NWSt 3Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.5%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:341% → 1%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+31
99.5%
Zach Adkins pass complete to Bryant Mitchell for 31 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.5%
Daniel Taylor run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-1
99.5%
Daniel Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+2
99.4%
Daniel Taylor run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
99.4%
Andy Wickman punt for 36 yds, downed at the Bayl 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
2 plays · 96 yds · 0:0999% → 100%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
99.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 15 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
99.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 81 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:541% → 1%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.5%
Garrett Atzenweiler run for 3 yds to the NWSt 47Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
99.5%
Zach Adkins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 4
50
-4
99.5%
Zach Adkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the NWSt 46Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Zach Adkins punt for 36 yds, downed at the Bayl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:29100% → 99%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+3
99.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 3 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+12
99.4%
Johnny Jefferson run for 12 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Davion HallSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Davion Hall for 3 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Spencer Roth punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ed Eagan at the NWSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:241% → 1%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.5%
Zach Adkins run for 3 yds to the NWSt 16Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+5
99.5%
Zach Adkins pass complete to Cody Jones for 5 yds to the NWSt 21Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+1
99.5%
Matthew Flores run for 1 yd to the NWSt 22Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 1
OWN 22
-5
99.5%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 17Similar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 6
OWN 17
-8
99.5%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-8 Yards) to the NWSt 9Similar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 14
OWN 9
0
99.5%
Andy Wickman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cal Spangler at the NWSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.5%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the NWSt 42Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
99.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+42
99.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 42 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 10FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:060% → 1%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.7%
Zach Adkins pass complete to Ed Eagan for 23 yds to the NWSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
99.7%
Garrett Atzenweiler run for 17 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Zach Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Zach Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+28
99.7%
Zach Adkins pass complete to Ed Eagan for 28 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.7%
Zach Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
99.7%
Zach Adkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 8Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.7%
Zach Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
99.3%
Chris Moore 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
21 plays · 59 yds · 5:5199% → 100%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.4%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-10
99.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 18
OWN 33
0
99.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 18
OWN 33
-5
99.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Davion Hall) to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 23
OWN 28
-5
99.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (KD Cannon) to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 28
OWN 23
+34
99.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 34 yds to the NWSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
99.3%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the NWSt 37Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
99.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
99.3%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+8
99.3%
Seth Russell run for 8 yds to the NWSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the NWSt 26Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-1
99.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 27Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+11
99.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to Davion Hall for 11 yds to the NWSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
99.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 1 yd to the NWSt 15Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+3
99.4%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the NWSt 12Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+7
99.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to Davion Hall for 7 yds to the NWSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.2%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the NWSt 4Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.2%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the NWSt 2Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Ronald Green run for 4 yds to the NWSt 29Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Zach Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Zach Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Andy Wickman punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 58 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
99.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 14 yds to the NWSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 6 yds to the NWSt 42Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
99.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the NWSt 39Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the NWSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
99.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 12 yds to the NWSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Lynx HawthorneSimilar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+19
99.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 19 yds to the NWSt 4 Johnny Jefferson fumbled, forced by Rico Albert, recovered by NWSt Rico AlbertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
99.8%
Garrett Atzenweiler run for 2 yds to the NWSt 6Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+15
99.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NWSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.8%
Garrett Atzenweiler run for 2 yds to the NWSt 23Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-8
99.8%
Zach Adkins sacked by Taylor Young for a loss of 8 yards to the NWSt 15Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+2
99.8%
Garrett Atzenweiler run for 2 yds to the NWSt 17Similar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 14
OWN 17
0
99.8%
Andy Wickman punt for 44 yds, downed at the Bayl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
99.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 61 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:440% → 0%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Zach Adkins pass complete to Tuff McClain for 10 yds to the NWSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
99.9%
Zach Adkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 32Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
Zach Adkins run for 5 yds to the NWSt 37Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Zach Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Andy Wickman punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cal Spangler at the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:11100% → 100%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
99.8%
Shock Linwood run for 11 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
99.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Davion Hall for 57 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Garrett Atzenweiler run for 1 yd to the NWSt 49Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+3
99.9%
Garrett Atzenweiler run for 3 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Zach Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Garrett Atzenweiler run for 3 yds to the NWSt 24Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-10
99.9%
Zach Adkins sacked by Andrew Billings for a loss of 10 yards to the NWSt 14Similar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 17
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Andy Wickman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cal Spangler at the NWSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the NWSt 47Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+12
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 12 yds to the NWSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 9 yds to the NWSt 26Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for no gain to the NWSt 26Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the NWSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 7 yds to the NWSt 16Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+2
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the NWSt 14Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+3
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the NWSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the NWSt 7Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+5
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 5 yds to the NWSt 2Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 21FUMBLE
10 plays · 17 yds · 3:530% → 0%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Daniel Taylor run for 1 yd to the NWSt 29Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+10
99.9%
Zach Adkins pass complete to Tuff McClain for 10 yds to the NWSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
Zach Adkins pass complete to Bryant Mitchell for 5 yds to the NWSt 44Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
99.9%
Daniel Taylor run for 7 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Zach Adkins run for 4 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-5
99.9%
Zach Adkins sacked by K.J. Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 11
50
0
99.9%
Zach Adkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 11
50
-5
99.9%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, False Start (Paxton Cook) to the NWSt 45Similar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 16
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Andy Wickman punt for 31 yds , Raaquan Davis returns for 5 yds to the Bayl 29 Raaquan Davis fumbled, recovered by NWStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 22FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:080% → 0%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Garrett Atzenweiler run for no gain to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
Daniel Hazlewood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+12
99.9%
Matthew Flores pass complete to Daniel Hazlewood for 12 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
99.9%
Matthew Flores run for 2 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+2
99.9%
Matthew Flores run for 2 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Daniel Hazlewood pass incomplete to Tuff McClainSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
99.9%
Chris Moore 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:53100% → 100%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
99.9%
Silas Nacita run for 4 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+8
99.9%
Silas Nacita run for 8 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
99.9%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Quan Jones for 2 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.9%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 1
50
+3
99.9%
Silas Nacita run for 3 yds to the NWSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
99.9%
Silas Nacita run for 10 yds to the NWSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
99.9%
Chris Johnson run for 11 yds to the NWSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
100.0%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 6 yds to the NWSt 20Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+9
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 9 yds to the NWSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 11 yds for a TD, (Kyle Peterson KICK)Similar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
100.0%
Ronald Green run for 2 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
100.0%
Ronald Green run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Daniel Hazlewood run for no gain to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Andy Wickman punt for a loss of 2 yards, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 5:36100% → 100%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 21 yds to the NWSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for no gain to the NWSt 34Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 11 yds to the NWSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
100.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (LaQuan McGowan) to the NWSt 28Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+1
100.0%
Baylor Black run for 1 yd to the NWSt 27Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+9
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 9 yds to the NWSt 18Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for no gain to the NWSt 18Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+6
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 6 yds to the NWSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 5 yds to the NWSt 7Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Peterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
100.0%
Ronald Green run for 4 yds to the NWSt 49Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+7
100.0%
Ronald Green run for 7 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
100.0%
Daniel Hazlewood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
Ronald Green run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+3
100.0%
Daniel Hazlewood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+4
100.0%
Daniel Hazlewood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
100.0%
Ronald Green run for 5 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:49
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+0.5
FG · Q2 12:54
Chris Moore 25 yd FG GOOD
-0.4
TD · Q1 0:19
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 42 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com