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NDSU

North Dakota State 34 at Iowa State 14

ISU
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadNDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreNDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-10.8ISU 43.9%Adam Keller 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 14 · Q3 5:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:52 · Adam Keller 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+8.7Home team on offense−10.2Score differential−3.0Garbage-time factor−3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:46: John Crockett run for 80 yds for a TD, (Adam Keller KICK) — NDSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:42: John Crockett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Keller KICK) — NDSU win probability +12.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:52: Adam Keller 21 yd FG GOOD — NDSU win probability +10.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:36: John Crockett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Keller KICK) — NDSU win probability +21.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:20: Chase Morlock run for 66 yds for a TD, (Adam Keller KICK) — NDSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7NDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 10:16NDSU 4th & 22 at ISU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:10ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00NDSU 4th & 3 at NDSU 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:59ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:50NDSU 4th & 1 at NDSU 42, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:51ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00NDSU 4th & 5 at NDSU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:37ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:52NDSU 4th & 4 at ISU 4, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−13.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00ISU 4th & 21 at ISU 14, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−2.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:07NDSU 4th & 6 at ISU 34, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    90.3%−0.6
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:52ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 24, down 13
    Close callPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:14ISU 4th & 7 at NDSU 35, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:31ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:03ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:46NDSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:42NDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:36NDSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:20NDSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2974% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
74.4%
Sam B. Richardson run for 16 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
74.4%
Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+8
74.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
50
+6
74.4%
Aaron Wimberly run for 6 yds to the NDkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
74.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 11 yds to the NDkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
74.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
74.4%
Richardson, SB pass incomplete to Cotton-Moya, K., PENALTY NDSU pass interference (Colten Heagle) 8 yards to the NDSU25, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
74.4%
Aaron Wimberly run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+8
74.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to E.J. Bibbs for 8 yds to the NDkSt 16Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+16
75.0%
Aaron Wimberly run for 16 yds for a TD, (Austin Fischer KICK), (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 2PUNT
16 plays · 36 yds · 1:0825% → 25%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
74.7%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Zach Vraa for 6 yds to the NDkSt 21Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
74.6%
Carson Wentz run for no gain to the NDkSt 21 Carson Wentz fumbled, recovered by NDkSt Carson WentzSimilar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+15
74.8%
Carson Wentz pass incomplete to Jeff Illies, PENALTY ISU TA (Cotton-Moya, K.) 15 yards to the NDSU36, 1ST DOWN NDSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.5%
John Crockett run for no gain to the NDkSt 36Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
74.6%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 37Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+14
74.7%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Kevin Vaadeland for 14 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
74.3%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Zach Vraa for 3 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
74.3%
John Crockett run for 2 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+7
74.3%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Zach Vraa for 7 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
74.3%
Carson Wentz pass incomplete to John CrockettSimilar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
74.3%
John Crockett run for 4 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-5
74.3%
NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, delay of game (Carson Wentz) to the IowSt 38Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 11
OPP 38
-11
74.4%
Carson Wentz sacked by Robby Garcia and Cory Morrissey for a loss of 11 yards to the IowSt 49Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 22
OPP 49
0
74.7%
Ben LeCompte punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
75.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 16Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
75.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to P.J. Harris for 5 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+8
75.3%
Sam B. Richardson run for 8 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
75.7%
Sam B. Richardson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+7
76.0%
DeVondrick Nealy run for 7 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
76.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 3 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-3
76.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 43Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
75.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to DeVondrick NealySimilar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
75.3%
Colin Downing punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDkSt 19 , Christian Dudzik returns for no gain to the NDkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0524% → 24%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
75.6%
King Frazier run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDkSt 18 NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the NDkSt 9Similar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 20
OWN 9
0
76.0%
Carson Wentz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 20
OWN 9
+17
76.0%
John Crockett run for 17 yds to the NDkSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
75.8%
Carson Wentz pass incomplete to Zach VraaSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+24
76.3%
Ben LeCompte punt for 49 yds , Jarvis West returns for 24 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 51 yds · 0:3677% → 82%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+48
76.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Allen Lazard for 48 yds to the NDkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
75.8%
John Crockett run for 80 yds for a TD, (Adam Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4776% → 75%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
76.1%
DeVondrick Nealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 24Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
76.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to P.J. Harris for 10 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
76.3%
Sam B. Richardson run for no gain to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
75.0%
Colin Downing punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Christian Dudzik at the NDkSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
75.2%
Chase Morlock run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 36Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
75.0%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Carey Woods for 5 yds to the NDkSt 41Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
74.6%
John Crockett run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 42Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
75.5%
Ben LeCompte punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
75.9%
Aaron Wimberly run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 19Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+2
75.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to P.J. Harris for 2 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
75.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete, broken up by Kyle EmanuelSimilar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+56
74.5%
Colin Downing punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IOWAST 33 NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Colten Heagle) to the NDkSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:1625% → 38%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
75.5%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Luke Albers for 10 yds to the NDkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
76.0%
King Frazier run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 25Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
76.1%
John Crockett run for 6 yds to the NDkSt 31Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
75.7%
Chase Morlock run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
74.8%
Carson Wentz pass incomplete to Luke AlbersSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
75.2%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Kevin Vaadeland for 9 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
74.2%
Carson Wentz run for 2 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+44
74.2%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Zach Vraa for 44 yds to the IowSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.8%
John Crockett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11INT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0069% → 71%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
68.5%
Sam B. Richardson run for 11 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.7%
Sam B. Richardson run for no gain to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
68.4%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Dondre Daley) to the IowSt 25Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+14
68.2%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 14 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
69.7%
Sam B. Richardson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
70.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to E.J. Bibbs, broken up by Christian DudzikSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
69.4%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Aaron WimberlySimilar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+14
68.5%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 14 yds to the NDkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+28
71.0%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted Christian Dudzik return for 28 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 12FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:1240% → 44%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
60.3%
Carson Wentz pass complete to John Crockett for 26 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
59.0%
John Crockett run for 11 yds to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
59.0%
Carson Wentz pass incomplete to John Crockett, broken up by Kenneth LynnSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
58.0%
NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the IowSt 8Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
59.0%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Rj Urzendowski for 6 yds to the IowSt 2Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 0
OPP 2
0
59.1%
IOWA ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
55.8%
Adam Keller 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
58.6%
Chase Morlock run for 5 yds to the NDkSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
57.3%
John Crockett run for no gain to the NDkSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
57.9%
Carson Wentz pass incomplete to John CrockettSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
60.0%
Ben LeCompte punt for 40 yds , Jarvis West returns for no gain to the IowSt 20 Jarvis West fumbled, recovered by IowSt Jarvis WestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
59.9%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Kyle Emanuel for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 18Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+12
59.6%
Sam B. Richardson run for 12 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
60.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
59.9%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to P.J. Harris for 5 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
59.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Aaron Wimberly for no gain to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+1
58.9%
Colin Downing punt for 51 yds , Cj Smith returns for 1 yd to the NDkSt 36 NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, illegal block (Mj Stumpf) to the NDkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 15FG
16 plays · 88 yds · 5:1042% → 56%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
58.2%
John Crockett run for 5 yds to the NDkSt 13Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+4
57.9%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Zach Vraa for 4 yds to the NDkSt 17Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+3
58.8%
King Frazier run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
57.6%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Kevin Vaadeland for 9 yds to the NDkSt 29Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+7
56.2%
Carson Wentz run for 7 yds to the NDkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
56.5%
Chase Morlock run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 39Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+14
55.4%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Carey Woods for 14 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
54.7%
IOWA ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
54.7%
John Crockett run for 2 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+20
54.7%
Carson Wentz run for 20 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
53.2%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Kevin Vaadeland for 16 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
53.2%
Carson Wentz pass incomplete, broken up by Jevohn MillerSimilar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 0
OPP 9
+5
52.4%
IOWA ST Penalty, offside defense (Jevohn Miller) to the IowSt 4Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
53.2%
Carson Wentz pass incomplete to Rj UrzendowskiSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
54.6%
Carson Wentz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
43.9%
Adam Keller 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0048% → 49%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.3%
Aaron Wimberly run for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
48.8%
Sam B. Richardson run for 8 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
49.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass intercepted Colten Heagle return for 2 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:1561% → 83%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
39.5%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Zach Vraa for 3 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
39.5%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+15
39.7%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Zach Vraa for 15 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
38.8%
Carson Wentz run for 6 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+10
38.8%
Carson Wentz run for 6 yds to the IowSt 7 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, personal foul (Vernell Trent) to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
38.8%
John Crockett run for no gain to the IowSt 3Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
17.2%
John Crockett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:3626% → 23%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.8%
Aaron Wimberly run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-6
26.3%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 24Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-10
24.3%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Carlton Littlejohn for a loss of 10 yards to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
22.7%
Colin Downing punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Christian Dudzik at the NDkSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:4583% → 89%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
17.4%
King Frazier run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 37Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+2
17.5%
John Crockett run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 39Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
17.3%
Carson Wentz run for 8 yds to the NDkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
16.6%
King Frazier run for 7 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+8
16.0%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Andrew Bonnet for 8 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
16.4%
Carson Wentz pass complete to Eric Perkins for 5 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-1
15.8%
John Crockett run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
9.6%
Carson Wentz pass incomplete to Luke Albers, broken up by Kamari SyrieSimilar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
10.7%
Ben LeCompte punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
17.2%
Aaron Wimberly run for 3 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-4
16.9%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Kyle Emanuel for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 19 Sam B. Richardson fumbled, recovered by IowSt Sam B. Richardson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+5
16.1%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Dondre Daley for 5 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
16.2%
Colin Downing punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:4092% → 99%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
8.3%
Chase Morlock run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 21Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-7
8.3%
John Crockett rush for 3 yards to the NDSU24, PENALTY NDSU holding (Jesse Hinz) 7 yards to the NDSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+15
8.4%
King Frazier run for 15 yds to the NDkSt 29Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
8.8%
John Crockett run for 5 yds to the NDkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
1.2%
Chase Morlock run for 66 yds for a TD, (Adam Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
1.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 8 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
1.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 4 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
1.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to DeVondrick NealySimilar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
1.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 6 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
1.6%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to Jarvis West for 5 yds to the NDkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
1.7%
Sam B. Richardson run for 11 yds to the NDkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
1.7%
Sam B. Richardson sacked by Alex Hahn for a loss of 1 yard to the NDkSt 39Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
1.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Allen Lazard, broken up by Esley ThortonSimilar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+4
1.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass complete to DeVondrick Nealy for 4 yds to the NDkSt 35Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
1.7%
Sam B. Richardson pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
0.8%
King Frazier run for 4 yds to the NDkSt 39Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
0.8%
King Frazier run for 5 yds to the NDkSt 44Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
0.8%
King Frazier run for 4 yds to the NDkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
0.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:36
John Crockett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Keller KICK)
-21.6
TD · Q2 4:42
John Crockett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Keller KICK)
-12.4
FG · Q3 5:52
Adam Keller 21 yd FG GOOD
-10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com