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CARK

Central Arkansas 35 at Texas Tech 42

TTU
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGSAFETYTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:44 · Taylor Symmank punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CArk 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Pregame prior+22.0Home team on offense+12.1Garbage-time factor+4.3Score differential+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Time remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:38: Willie Matthews run for 2 yds for a TD, (Clay Murphy failed ) — CARK win probability +3.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:58: Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 70 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK) — TTU win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:47: Blake Veasley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Denker KICK) — CARK win probability +11.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:38: Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK), (Ryan Bustin KICK) — TTU win probability +5.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:57: Ryan Howard pass complete to Damien Watts for 8 yds for a TD, (Jace Denker KICK) — CARK win probability +11.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CARK made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00CARK 4th & 5 at CARK 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:54TTU 4th & 12 at TTU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:58CARK 4th & 1 at TTU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:41CARK 4th & 11 at TTU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:41TTU 4th & 7 at CARK 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:13CARK 4th & 2 at TTU 44, down 4
    Close callPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:43CARK 4th & 1 at TTU 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:16CARK 4th & 11 at CARK 19, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:27CARK 4th & 12 at CARK 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00TTU 4th & 1 at CARK 15, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−1.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:05CARK 4th & 2 at TTU 36, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−0.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:18CARK 4th & 1 at TTU 24, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−0.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:36CARK 4th & 5 at TTU 17, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:20CARK 4th & 7 at CARK 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:44TTU 4th & 6 at CARK 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00CARK 4th & 10 at CARK 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−2.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:28CARK 4th & 1 at TTU 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−1.0
    90% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−4.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:38CARK 4th & 8 at TTU 32, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:13TTU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:43CARK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:16TTU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:34TTU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:05TTU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:58TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:47CARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:38TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:57CARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.8%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Dezmin Lewis for 9 yds to the CArk 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-4
96.8%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for a loss of 4 yards to the CArk 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
96.8%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete, broken up by Keenon WardSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+2
96.8%
Matthew Spencer punt for 45 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
96.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 24Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+1
96.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 1 yd to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jakeem GrantSimilar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Taylor Symmank punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jatavious Wilson at the CArk 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 3FG
21 plays · 58 yds · 5:114% → 5%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
96.4%
Willie Matthews run for 4 yds to the CArk 35Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+7
96.4%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Jacoby Walker for 7 yds to the CArk 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
96.4%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Jacoby WalkerSimilar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
96.4%
Jatavious Wilson run for 9 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+1
96.2%
Willie Matthews run for 1 yd to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
96.2%
Blake Veasley run for 9 yds to the TexTc 39 TEXAS TECH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+5
96.1%
Blake Veasley run for 5 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
96.1%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Dezmin Lewis, broken up by Tevin MadisonSimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
96.1%
Taylor Reed run for 9 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
96.2%
Blake Veasley run for no gain to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
95.9%
Taylor Reed run for 2 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
95.9%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Blake VeasleySimilar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
95.9%
Blake Veasley run for 1 yd to the TexTc 22Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+13
95.9%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Blake Veasley for 13 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
95.9%
Blake Veasley run for no gain to the TexTc 9Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
95.9%
Taylor Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-7
95.9%
Taylor Reed sacked by Branden Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 16Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+5
95.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the TexTc 11Similar
Q1 7:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
95.3%
Jace Denker 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 43 yds · 2:2895% → 95%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
95.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Reginald Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 44Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+4
95.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the CArk 40Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
95.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 7
OPP 40
+11
95.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 11 yds to the CArk 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
95.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 4 yds to the CArk 25Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
95.5%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+9
95.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Davis for 9 yds to the CArk 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
95.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 12 yds to the CArk 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
95.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 3 yds to the CArk 1Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.2%
Taylor Reed run for 10 yds to the CArk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
95.2%
Willie Matthews run for 13 yds to the CArk 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
95.0%
Willie Matthews run for 3 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
95.0%
Taylor Reed run for 5 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
95.0%
Taylor Reed run for no gain to the TexTc 44Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
95.1%
Matthew Spencer punt for 35 yds , Cameron Batson returns for no gain to the TexTc 8 Cameron Batson fumbled, recovered by TexTc Cameron BatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6INT
13 plays · 80 yds · 2:2195% → 95%
Q1 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+17
94.7%
Quinton White run for 17 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
94.6%
Stockton, J. rush for 4 yards to the TTU12, PENALTY TTU personal foul 2 yards to the TTU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 12
OWN 6
+7
94.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 7 yds to the TexTc 13Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+15
94.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 15 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
94.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 18Similar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+14
94.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 14 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
94.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 13 yds to the CArk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
95.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 16 yds to the CArk 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
95.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to D.J. Polite-Bray for 3 yds to the CArk 19Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
94.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Reginald DavisSimilar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+8
94.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 8 yds to the CArk 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
94.6%
Davis Webb pass intercepted, touchback. Dawson Hadnot return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 7TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:296% → 9%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
94.4%
Bobby Watkins pass complete to Dezmin Lewis for 9 yds to the CArk 29Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
94.2%
Willie Matthews run for 6 yds to the CArk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
94.3%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Willie Matthews for 1 yd to the CArk 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+13
94.3%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Dezmin Lewis for 13 yds to the CArk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
94.1%
Reed, T. pass incomplete to Lewis, D., PENALTY TTU holding (Nelson, Justis) 10 yards to the TTU41, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
94.0%
Willie Matthews run for 1 yd to the TexTc 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+26
94.0%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Courtney Whitehead for 11 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (Tevin Madison) to the TexTc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
93.8%
Taylor Reed run for 5 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+5
93.8%
Willie Matthews run for 5 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
93.8%
Willie Matthews run for 2 yds to the TexTc 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
93.8%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Courtney Whitehead, broken up by Justis NelsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
93.9%
Willie Matthews run for 1 yd to the TexTc 1Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.0%
Taylor Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Denker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.4%
DeAndre Washington run for 5 yds to the TexTc 30 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 20Similar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
91.4%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the TexTc 20Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+38
91.4%
Davis Webb pass intercepted Artez Williams return for 38 yds to the TexTc 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 9TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.8%
Willie Matthews run for 2 yds for a TD, (Clay Murphy failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 3:2289% → 90%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
89.2%
Quinton White run for 9 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
89.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Reginald Davis for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
50
+10
89.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 10 yds to the CArk 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
89.6%
Quinton White run for no gain to the CArk 40Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
89.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+14
89.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 14 yds to the CArk 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
90.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Bradley MarquezSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+17
90.0%
DeAndre Washington run for 17 yds to the CArk 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
88.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 3 yds to the CArk 6Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
88.7%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the CArk 6Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Davis for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
89.8%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Dezmin Lewis for 12 yds to the CArk 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
89.4%
Willie Matthews run for 3 yds to the CArk 23Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
89.3%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Courtney Whitehead for 1 yd to the CArk 24Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-5
89.5%
Taylor Reed sacked by Pete Robertson for a loss of 5 yards to the CArk 19Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+12
90.0%
Matthew Spencer punt for 56 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 12 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:2288% → 93%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
88.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 16 yds to the CArk 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
89.2%
Quinton White run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 49Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+32
88.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Reginald Davis for 32 yds to the CArk 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
89.8%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+11
89.8%
Quinton White run for 11 yds to the CArk 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.2%
Justin Stockton run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 2:077% → 8%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
92.9%
Blake Veasley run for 8 yds to the CArk 15Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+4
92.4%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Desmond Smith for 4 yds to the CArk 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
92.5%
Blake Veasley run for 3 yds to the CArk 22Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+9
92.5%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Courtney Whitehead for 9 yds to the CArk 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
92.4%
Blake Veasley run for 3 yds to the CArk 34Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-5
92.3%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, false start (N/A) to the CArk 29Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
92.6%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Desmond SmithSimilar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
92.7%
Courtney Whitehead run for no gain to the CArk 29Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
92.4%
Jace Denker punt for 57 yds, downed at the TexTc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 1:1291% → 90%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
90.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 20 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
90.6%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
90.5%
DeAndre Washington run for 17 yds to the CArk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
91.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to D.J. Polite-Bray for 15 yds to the CArk 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
91.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 3 yds to the CArk 31Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+13
91.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Quinton White for 13 yds to the CArk 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
91.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
91.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Reginald Davis, broken up by Prince EneSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+35
90.2%
Ryan Bustin 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
91.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 3:5591% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
90.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to DeAndre Washington for 8 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+1
91.2%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-11
90.9%
Webb, Davis pass complete to Marquez, Brad for no gain to the TTU41 (Odum, G.), PENALTY TTU holding (Davis, Reginald) 11 yards to the TTU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+14
89.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Reginald Davis for 14 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
91.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 16 yds to the CArk 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
91.4%
Washington, De. rush for 7 yards to the UCA33 (Ene, P.), PENALTY UCA offside defense declined, PENALTY UCA substitution infraction 5 yards to the UCA35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+11
91.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 11 yds to the CArk 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
91.6%
Quinton White run for 3 yds to the CArk 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+6
91.6%
Quinton White run for 6 yds to the CArk 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
91.2%
DeAndre Washington run for no gain to the CArk 15Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+1
90.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the CArk 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
91.6%
Justin Stockton run for 9 yds to the CArk 5Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
94.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Reginald Davis for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 17FG
18 plays · 52 yds · 4:297% → 9%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
93.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the CArk 36Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
93.2%
Willie Matthews run for 8 yds to the CArk 44Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+12
92.9%
Willie Matthews run for 12 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
92.8%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Desmond Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 49Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
93.2%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+13
93.4%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Courtney Whitehead for 13 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+3
93.0%
Willie Matthews run for 3 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
92.3%
Reed, T. pass incomplete to Whitehead, C., PENALTY TTU offside defense 5 yards to the TTU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+2
92.2%
Blake Veasley run for 2 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 3
OPP 26
0
92.2%
Taylor Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+2
93.3%
Taylor Reed run for 2 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
93.5%
Taylor Reed run for 2 yds to the TexTc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
92.8%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Courtney WhiteheadSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
92.9%
Jatavious Wilson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+2
93.3%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Blake Veasley for 2 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
91.4%
Jace Denker 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18SF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
91.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete, broken up by Ricky Wyatt for a SAFETY TEXAS TECH Penalty, intentional grounding (Davis Webb) to the TexTc 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
89.2%
Willie Matthews run for 10 yds to the CArk 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
88.5%
Willie Matthews run for 4 yds to the CArk 43Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
88.0%
Dezmin Lewis run for no gain to the CArk 43Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-10
88.7%
Reed, T. rush for no gain to the UCA43 (Gaines, J.J.), PENALTY UCA holding 10 yards to the UCA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+9
90.0%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Damien Watts for 9 yds to the CArk 42Similar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
89.7%
Matthew Spencer punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
90.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 7 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
90.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Brent Mitcham for 3 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
90.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+20
90.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Davis for 20 yds to the CArk 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
91.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to D.J. Polite-Bray for 5 yds to the CArk 43Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
91.9%
Justin Stockton run for 3 yds to the CArk 40Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-5
91.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the CArk 45Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+1
91.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 1 yd to the CArk 44Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
90.6%
Taylor Symmank punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CArk 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3811% → 10%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
88.7%
Taylor Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
88.8%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to Dezmin Lewis, broken up by Tevin MadisonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+2
89.4%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Courtney Whitehead for 2 yds to the CArk 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
89.8%
Matthew Spencer punt for 64 yds, downed at the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 0:5392% → 97%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
91.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Justin Stockton for 14 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
91.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+70
96.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 70 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 23TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:114% → 16%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
95.9%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Jatavious Wilson for 13 yds to the CArk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
95.7%
Willie Matthews run for 3 yds to the CArk 41Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
95.7%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete, broken up by Sam EguavoenSimilar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+21
95.7%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Blake Veasley for 21 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
95.6%
Blake Veasley run for 1 yd to the TexTc 37Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+9
95.6%
Taylor Reed pass complete to Dezmin Lewis for 9 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
95.0%
Willie Matthews run for 8 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+3
95.0%
Willie Matthews run for 3 yds to the TexTc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
95.0%
Blake Veasley run for 2 yds to the TexTc 15Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+6
95.0%
Taylor Reed run for 6 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+1
95.9%
Taylor Reed run for 1 yd to the TexTc 8Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+4
95.9%
Willie Matthews run for 4 yds to the TexTc 4 Willie Matthews fumbled, forced by Keland McElrath, recovered by CArk Willie Matthews for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+3
94.7%
Reed, T. pass complete to Walker, J. for 2 yards to the TTU2 (Williams, Kenny), PENALTY TTU unsportsmanlike conduct (Barnes, Jalen) 3 yards to the TTU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.5%
Willie Matthews run for no gain to the TexTc 1Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.5%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 7:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.4%
Blake Veasley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Denker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:0991% → 98%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
90.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Justin Stockton for 3 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+9
90.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 9 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
90.7%
DeAndre Washington run for 1 yd to the TexTc 34Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+16
90.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
50
+9
91.9%
Justin Stockton run for 9 yds to the CArk 41Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
92.0%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the CArk 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
92.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to D.J. Polite-Bray for 12 yds to the CArk 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
97.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK), (Ryan Bustin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 25TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 2:413% → 16%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
96.9%
Taylor Reed pass incomplete, broken up by Tevin MadisonSimilar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
97.0%
Ryan Howard pass complete to Dezmin Lewis for 1 yd to the CArk 14Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+52
97.0%
Ryan Howard pass complete to Dezmin Lewis for 52 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
96.2%
Ryan Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
96.2%
Blake Veasley run for 2 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
96.5%
Ryan Howard pass incomplete to Courtney WhiteheadSimilar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+18
96.7%
Ryan Howard pass complete to Desmond Smith for 18 yds to the TexTc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
95.9%
Blake Veasley run for 6 yds to the TexTc 8Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
84.1%
Ryan Howard pass complete to Damien Watts for 8 yds for a TD, (Jace Denker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26END OF GAME
11 plays · 9 yds · 0:4695% → 96%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
94.8%
Davis Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 45 Davis Webb fumbled, recovered by TexTc N/ASimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
94.5%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to DeAndre WashingtonSimilar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+13
93.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 13 yds to the CArk 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
94.9%
Quinton White run for 1 yd to the CArk 41Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+9
95.9%
Justin Stockton run for 9 yds to the CArk 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
96.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (Jared Kaster) to the CArk 47Similar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
95.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the CArk 45Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
95.9%
DeAndre Washington run for 2 yds to the CArk 43Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 6
OPP 43
-1
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:57
Ryan Howard pass complete to Damien Watts for 8 yds for a TD, (Jace Denker KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q4 7:47
Blake Veasley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Denker KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q4 5:38
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Bustin KICK), (Ryan Bustin KICK)
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com