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SAM

Samford 14 at TCU 48

TCU
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadSAM aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreSAM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:58 · Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds to the Samf 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Pregame prior+42.0Home team on offense+11.7Score differential+8.5Garbage-time factor+3.0Blowout margin−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:09: Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 38 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:36: Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 19 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:30: Denzel Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Warren Handrahan KICK) — SAM win probability +1.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:54: Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 6:27: Jaden Oberkrom 25 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9SAM made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:00SAM 4th & 1 at SAM 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:25TCU 4th & 12 at TCU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:47SAM 4th & 27 at SAM 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:09SAM 4th & 2 at TCU 41, down 14
    Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:33TCU 4th & 28 at TCU 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:36SAM 4th & 1 at SAM 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:58TCU 4th & 1 at SAM 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:07TCU 4th & 4 at SAM 5, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:41TCU 4th & 20 at TCU 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00SAM 4th & 10 at TCU 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:21TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:48SAM 4th & 13 at SAM 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:27TCU 4th & 4 at SAM 8, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:21SAM 4th & 7 at SAM 9, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:53TCU 4th & 3 at SAM 45, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:04SAM 4th & 10 at SAM 11, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:04SAM 4th & 14 at SAM 46, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:50SAM 4th & 8 at SAM 27, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:25SAM 4th & 12 at SAM 23, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:02TCU 4th & 2 at SAM 41, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SAM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:00TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:09TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:36TCU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:30SAM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:54TCU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:50TCU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:25TCU Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:08SAM Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
98.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 23 yds Ty Slanina fumbled, recovered by TCU Ty Slanina for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
98.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to B.J. Catalon for 6 yds to the Samf 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+10
98.3%
B.J. Catalon run for 10 yds to the Samf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
98.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 15 yds to the Samf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
98.3%
Deante' Gray run for 5 yds to the Samf 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+13
98.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 13 yds to the Samf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.2%
B.J. Catalon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.1%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Robert Clark for 3 yds to the Samf 28Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
98.1%
Denzel Williams run for 4 yds to the Samf 32Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
98.1%
Denzel Williams run for 2 yds to the Samf 34Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
98.1%
Greg Peranich punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
98.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 6 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+5
98.0%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.0%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-13
98.0%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Josh Killett and Terrell Woods for a loss of 13 yards to the TCU 15Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 23
OWN 15
+11
98.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Deante' Gray for 11 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
98.0%
Ethan Perry punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Robert Clark at the Samf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
97.8%
Denzel Williams run for 4 yds to the Samf 35Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-10
97.8%
Robert Clark rush for 5 yards to the SAM40 (Kindred, D.), PENALTY SAM holding (Tony Philpot) 10 yards to the SAM25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 16
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Michael Eubank pass incomplete to Denzel Williams, broken up by Paul DawsonSimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 16
OWN 25
-9
97.9%
Michael Eubank sacked by Mike Tuaua for a loss of 9 yards to the Samf 14 Michael Eubank fumbled, recovered by Samf Michael Eubank , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 27
OWN 14
+3
97.9%
Greg Peranich punt for 47 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 3 yds to the TCU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:1998% → 98%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
97.8%
B.J. Catalon run for 7 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
97.8%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh Doctson, broken up by Calvin RuffSimilar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+10
97.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to B.J. Catalon for 10 yds to the Samf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
97.8%
B.J. Catalon run for 3 yds to the Samf 38Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+38
98.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 38 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.9%
Krondis Larry run for 3 yds to the Samf 28Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
97.8%
Michael Eubank run for 8 yds to the Samf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.8%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Jeremy Brown for no gain to the Samf 36Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
97.8%
Krondis Larry run for 5 yds to the Samf 41Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+10
97.8%
Michael Eubank run for 10 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.8%
Michael Eubank pass incomplete to Krondis LarrySimilar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
97.8%
Krondis Larry run for no gain to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+8
97.8%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Jeremy Brown for 8 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
97.8%
Greg Peranich punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.7%
B.J. Catalon run for 8 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
97.7%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
97.7%
Trevone Boykin run for 18 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.8%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to David PorterSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+13
97.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 13 yds to the Samf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
97.8%
B.J. Catalon run for a loss of 5 yards to the Samf 43Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 15
OPP 43
-15
97.8%
Boykin, Trevone pass complete to Catalon, B.J. for no gain to the SAM43 (Jaquiski Tartt), PENALTY TCU personal foul (Williams, R.) 15 yards to the TCU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 30
OWN 42
+2
97.8%
Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds to the TCU 44 TCU Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 28
OWN 44
0
97.7%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 28
OWN 44
0
97.7%
Ethan Perry punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 8INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:403% → 3%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
97.3%
Krondis Larry run for a loss of 3 yards to the Samf 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
97.3%
Michael Eubank pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+3
97.3%
Michael Eubank pass intercepted Paul Dawson return for 3 yds to the Samf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9TD
1 play · 19 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
98.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 19 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.3%
Denzel Williams run for 3 yds to the Samf 28Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
98.2%
Michael Eubank run for 6 yds to the Samf 34Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
98.2%
Denzel Williams run for no gain to the Samf 34Similar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+14
98.3%
Greg Peranich punt for 41 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 14 yds to the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 5:5198% → 99%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
98.4%
Deante' Gray run for 18 yds to the Samf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
98.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 9 yds to the Samf 34Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-5
98.4%
TCU Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Samf 39Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+7
98.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 7 yds to the Samf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
98.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 6 yds to the Samf 26Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+4
98.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Deante' Gray for 4 yds to the Samf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
98.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the Samf 17Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+4
98.4%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the Samf 13Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
98.4%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the Samf 13Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
98.3%
Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds to the Samf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
98.4%
B.J. Catalon run for 1 yd to the Samf 10Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
98.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Aaron GreenSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+5
98.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 5 yds to the Samf 5Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
98.5%
Jaden Oberkrom 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:372% → 3%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
98.3%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Devon Schmitt for 32 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
98.2%
Michael Eubank run for 10 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
98.1%
Michael Eubank run for 2 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
98.1%
Denzel Williams run for no gain to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+12
98.2%
Michael Eubank run for 12 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
98.1%
Jeremiaha Gates run for 8 yds to the TCU 11Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 2
OPP 11
-1
98.1%
Michael Eubank run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 12Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+8
98.2%
Denzel Williams run for 8 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.1%
Denzel Williams run for 2 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.6%
Denzel Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Warren Handrahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 1:4298% → 98%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
97.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to B.J. Catalon for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 19Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 13
OWN 19
0
97.5%
Cameron Echols-Luper pass incomplete to Josh Doctson, broken up by Jaquiski TarttSimilar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+15
97.4%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 15 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
97.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 8 yds to the TCU 42 TCU Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+6
97.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 6 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-9
97.4%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Josh Killett for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 20
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Ethan Perry punt for 57 yds , Robert Clark returns for no gain to the Samf 15 Robert Clark fumbled, recovered by Samf James BradberrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 14END OF HALF
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:083% → 3%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
97.1%
Denzel Williams run for no gain to the Samf 15Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
97.0%
Michael Eubank run for 3 yds to the Samf 18Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+8
96.9%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Denzel Williams for 8 yds to the Samf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
96.8%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Denzel Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Samf 23Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+2
96.9%
Jeremiaha Gates run for 2 yds to the Samf 25Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+4
96.8%
Jeremiaha Gates run for 4 yds to the Samf 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.9%
Denzel Williams run for 2 yds to the Samf 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
96.9%
Michael Eubank pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
97.0%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Tony Philpot for 14 yds to the Samf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.7%
Denzel Williams run for no gain to the Samf 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
96.8%
Michael Eubank run for 1 yd to the Samf 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+10
96.9%
Michael Eubank run for 10 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
96.5%
Malik Johns run for 4 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-2
96.5%
Michael Eubank run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-2
96.8%
Michael Eubank run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 48 SAMFORD Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
96.9%
Greg Peranich punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
97.0%
Deante' Gray run for 6 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
97.0%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Deante' Gray, broken up by Josh KimberlinSimilar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
96.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to B.J. CatalonSimilar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
96.8%
Ethan Perry punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Robert Clark at the Samf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
96.9%
Jeremiaha Gates run for 1 yd to the Samf 24Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
97.0%
Michael Eubank pass incomplete to Denzel WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-4
97.0%
Denzel Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Samf 20Similar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+9
97.1%
Greg Peranich punt for 48 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 9 yds to the TCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:2898% → 99%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
97.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 1
50
+36
97.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 36 yds to the Samf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
97.7%
Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds to the Samf 12Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+7
97.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 7 yds to the Samf 5Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+4
97.6%
B.J. Catalon run for 4 yds to the Samf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.9%
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
98.7%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Jeremy Brown for 10 yards to the SAM35 (Dawson, Paul), PENALTY SAM personal foul (Royus Amos) 12 yards to the SAM13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+3
98.7%
Denzel Williams run for 3 yds to the Samf 16Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
98.7%
Michael Eubank pass incomplete to Kelvin ClaySimilar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-7
98.8%
Michael Eubank sacked by Mike Tuaua for a loss of 7 yards to the Samf 14 Michael Eubank fumbled, recovered by TCU Paul Dawson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4399% → 100%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
98.9%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the Samf 9Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
98.9%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the Samf 8Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
98.8%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
99.8%
Jaden Oberkrom 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
99.8%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Malik Johns for 1 yd to the Samf 7Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+2
99.8%
Michael Eubank run for 2 yds to the Samf 9Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 7
OWN 9
0
99.8%
Michael Eubank run for no gain to the Samf 9Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+16
99.8%
Greg Peranich punt for 46 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 16 yds to the TCU 25 TCU Penalty, Offensive holding (25 Yards) to the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Trevone Boykin run for 4 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 8 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Deante' Gray, broken up by Jamerson BlountSimilar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.9%
Trevone Boykin run for 7 yds to the Samf 45Similar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Ethan Perry punt for 34 yds, downed at the Samf 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
99.9%
Jeremiaha Gates run for 5 yds to the Samf 16Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 16
-1
99.9%
Carson Barnett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 15Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 6
OWN 15
-4
99.9%
Carson Barnett pass complete to Denzel Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Samf 11Similar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 10
OWN 11
+7
99.9%
Greg Peranich punt for 43 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 7 yds to the 50 yard line Cameron Echols-Luper fumbled, forced by Josh Killett, recovered by Samf Jamerson Blount , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Carson Barnett pass incomplete to Denzel WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 10
50
-4
99.9%
Denzel Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Samf 46Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Carson Barnett pass incomplete to Denzel WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Greg Peranich punt for 53 yds, downed at the TCU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25TD
15 plays · 99 yds · 4:11100% → 100%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
99.9%
B.J. Catalon run for 5 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+11
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 11 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.9%
B.J. Catalon run for 3 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+2
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 2 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+6
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Deante' Gray for 6 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Deante' Gray for 16 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 17 yds to the Samf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Samf 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+14
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Jordan Moore for 14 yds to the Samf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 8 yds to the Samf 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+1
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the Samf 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+6
99.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Desmon White for 6 yds to the Samf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 7 yds to the Samf 7Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson 7 Yd Run (Jaden Oberkrom Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jake Wilks run for 2 yds to the Samf 27Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Jake Wilks run for no gain to the Samf 27Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Carson Barnett pass incomplete to Malik JohnsSimilar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-12
99.9%
Austin Barnard run for a loss of 12 yards to the Samf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:09100% → 100%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
99.9%
Joeckel, Matt pass incomplete to Listenbee, K. (Trey Wesley), PENALTY SAM pass interference (Trey Wesley) 13 yards to the SAM2, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Matt Joeckel pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 2 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.9%
Carson Barnett pass complete to Robert Clark for a loss of 3 yards to the Samf 22Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Jake Wilks run for 3 yds to the Samf 25Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Carson Barnett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Samf 23Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Greg Peranich punt for 59 yds , Deante' Gray returns for no gain to the TCU 8 Deante' Gray fumbled, recovered by TCU Deante' GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29INT TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Matt Joeckel pass incomplete to Charlie ReidSimilar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+23
99.9%
Matt Joeckel pass complete to Trevorris Johnson for 23 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Matt Joeckel pass complete to Desmon White for 2 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+10
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 10 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for no gain to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Matt Joeckel pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+10
99.9%
Matt Joeckel run for 10 yds to the Samf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Matt Joeckel pass incomplete to Charlie ReidSimilar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+55
99.9%
Matt Joeckel pass intercepted for a TD Jamerson Blount return for 55 yds for a TD, (Warren Handrahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 30END OF GAME
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 8 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+6
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 3 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 10 yds to the Samf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
99.9%
Matt Joeckel pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 8 yds to the Samf 41Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-1
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 42Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+1
99.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the Samf 41Similar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 4 yds to the Samf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the Samf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:30
Denzel Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Warren Handrahan KICK)
-1.5
TD · Q3 7:54
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q2 14:36
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 19 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
+1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com