2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:33 · Trevor Knight pass complete to K.J. Young for 12 yds to the LaTch 21 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:22: Keith Ford run for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK) — OU win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 6:18: Trevor Knight pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK) — OU win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:33: Keith Ford run for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK) — OU win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 12:24: Michael Hunnicutt 39 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:19: Alex Ross run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK) — OU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 13:58LT 4th & 5 at LT 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 10:40OU 4th & 2 at LT 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.9%57% to convertField goal97.8%−0.156% to makePunt97.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:38LT 4th & 14 at LT 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q1 3:04LT 4th & 8 at OU 34, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.4%34% to convertField goalTheir call2.4%−<0.147% to makePunt2.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:24OU 4th & 4 at LT 22, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.3%47% to convertField goalTheir call98.3%−<0.172% to makePunt97.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 10:53LT 4th & 10 at LT 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 8:58OU 4th & 2 at LT 33, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.6%57% to convertField goal98.5%−0.149% to makePunt98.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:14LT 4th & 5 at LT 37, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q3 11:43LT 4th & 13 at LT 16, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 10:39OU 4th & 3 at LT 36, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%53% to convertField goal99.7%−0.142% to makePunt99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:41OU 4th & 12 at LT 20, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.122% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%75% to makePunt99.3%−0.4average punt
- Q3 4:49LT 4th & 4 at OU 45, down 38Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%48% to convertField goal0.0%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:50OU 4th & 8 at OU 16, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 12:17LT 4th & 2 at LT 31, down 38Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 8:33OU 4th & 5 at LT 33, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%42% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.149% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:45LT 4th & 5 at OU 29, down 38Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goal0.0%58% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:22OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:18OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:33OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:19OU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:31OU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:49LT Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:00OU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:521% → 1%
OUDrive 2TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:2199% → 98%
LTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:372% → 2%
OUDrive 4TD6 plays · 54 yds · 2:1498% → 98%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
98.3%
Knight, Trevor pass incomplete to Shepard, Sterling, PENALTY LATECH pass interference (Barnes, Adairius) 15 yards to the LATECH39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
98.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Keith Ford for 5 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+14
98.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Keith Ford for 14 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
98.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5MISSED FG9 plays · 41 yds · 2:562% → 2%
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+17
98.1%
Cody Sokol run for 2 yds to the Okla 36 Cody Sokol fumbled, forced by Jordan Evans, recovered by LaTch Cody Sokol for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Evans) to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
98.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaTchSimilar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 13
OPP 39
0
98.1%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Kenneth Dixon, broken up by Caleb GastelumSimilar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+5
98.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 5 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
98.1%
Jonathan Barnes 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Zack Sanchez Eric Striker return for 20 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD7 plays · 42 yds · 2:1498% → 99%
Q1 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+24
98.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 18 yds to the LaTch 11 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (6 yards) (Adairius Barnes) to the LaTch 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:261% → 1%
OUDrive 8FG6 plays · 24 yds · 2:1499% → 99%
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+16
98.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Alex Ross for 16 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:171% → 1%
OUDrive 10FUMBLE8 plays · 30 yds · 2:0299% → 99%
Q2 10:23
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+21
98.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to K.J. Young for 21 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+8
98.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to K.J. Young for 8 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
99.0%
Trevor Knight run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 32 Trevor Knight fumbled, recovered by LaTch Vontarrius DoraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:111% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12TD12 plays · 72 yds · 4:4899% → 100%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
98.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 9 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+12
98.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Durron Neal for 12 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 0
OPP 2
+1
99.0%
Knight, Trevor pass incomplete to Bell, Blake (Grogan, Lloyd), PENALTY LATECH pass interference (Grogan, Lloyd) 1 yards to the LATECH1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13DOWNS13 plays · 56 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q2 0:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+23
99.7%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 23 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.7%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 6 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+7
99.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 7 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.7%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Hunter Lee, broken up by Ahmad ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+18
99.7%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 18 yds to the Okla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-6
99.7%
Cody Sokol sacked by Eric Striker and Matt Dimon for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 3 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+28
99.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Keith Ford for 28 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+30
99.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Durron Neal for 30 yds to the LaTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
99.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 6 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:320% → 0%
OUDrive 17FG10 plays · 23 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q3 10:56
4TH & 8
OPP 41
+5
99.8%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the LaTch 36Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+18
99.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Keith Ford for 18 yds to the LaTch 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 2
OPP 10
-10
99.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Daryl Williams) to the LaTch 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 31 yds · 4:520% → 0%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.8%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (Josh Gaston) to the LaTch 20Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
99.8%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Blake Martin for 6 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
99.8%
Sokol, Cody pass incomplete to Griffin, Sterling, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Sanchez, Zack) 10 yards to the LATECH36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LATECH. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q3 3:50
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Jed Barnett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20TD11 plays · 59 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+15
99.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 15 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
99.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 22 yds to the Okla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+10
99.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 10 yds to the Okla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD3 plays · 14 yds · 0:23100% → 100%
LTDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:580% → 0%
OUDrive 23FUMBLE13 plays · 49 yds · 4:51100% → 100%
Q4 10:23
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+13
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 13 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Jordan Smallwood for 1 yd to the LaTch 37Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+12
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to K.J. Young for 12 yds to the LaTch 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+19
100.0%
Trevor Knight pass intercepted Houston Bates return for 19 yds to the LaTch 34 Houston Bates fumbled, recovered by LaTch Le'Vander LigginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24TD14 plays · 66 yds · 6:340% → 0%
Q4 6:17
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
100.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 7 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
100.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 1 yd to the LaTch 47Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+9
100.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Sterling Griffin for 9 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
100.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Conner Smith for 6 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
100.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Blake Martin for 2 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+3
100.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Blake Martin for 3 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+7
100.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 7 yds to the Okla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
100.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 22 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25END OF GAME2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:19
Alex Ross run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q1 0:33
Keith Ford run for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 6:18
Trevor Knight pass complete to Sterling Shepard for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)
+0.3