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WAKE

Wake Forest 10 at Louisville 20

LOU
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:54 · Alexander Kinal punt for 50 yds, downed at the Lvile 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+22.0Home team on offense+4.0Garbage-time factor+0.9Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. SACK · Q3 8:32: Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Tylor Harris for a loss of 9 yards Reggie Bonnafon fumbled, recovered by WFrst Tylor Harris , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +13.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:46: Orville Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Lvile 29 — WAKE win probability +6.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 15:00: Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the WFrst 33 — LOU win probability +7.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 11:41: Brandon Radcliff run for 16 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +13.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:12: John Wallace 31 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +8.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10WAKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:53WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:19LOU 4th & 25 at LOU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:40WAKE 4th & 8 at LOU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:40LOU 4th & 4 at WAKE 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    86.4%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:47LOU 4th & 11 at WAKE 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:47WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 36, up 3
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:44LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:20WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00WAKE 4th & 11 at WAKE 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:08LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:54WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:32LOU 4th & 17 at LOU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−3.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:01WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−1.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:32LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 29, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.7%−2.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:41WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−3.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:12LOU 4th & 4 at WAKE 14, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.3%−0.6
    84% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−13.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:12WAKE 4th & 27 at WAKE 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:30LOU 4th & 3 at WAKE 17, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−4.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:30WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 46, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:01LOU 4th & 2 at WAKE 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 3:55LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:41LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:3092% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
91.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 6 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
91.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 15 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
91.7%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Eli Rogers for 15 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
91.2%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Zachary Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 42Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
91.1%
Dominique Brown run for no gain to the WFrst 43 Dominique Brown fumbled, forced by Wendell Dunn, recovered by WFrst Tylor HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
90.8%
Orville Reynolds run for 1 yd to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
90.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Orville Reynolds for 3 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
90.8%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
90.9%
Alexander Kinal punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 8 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
90.4%
Michael Dyer run for 1 yd to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
90.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-5
90.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 12Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 14
OWN 12
+16
90.3%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Eli Rogers for 16 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
90.5%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+8
90.5%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 8 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
90.5%
Michael Dyer run for 5 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
90.6%
Michael Dyer run for 2 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-15
90.6%
Brown, Do. rush left for no gain to the LOU46 (Lee, M), PENALTY LOU personal foul (Mack, R.) 15 yards to the LOU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 18
OWN 31
-7
90.3%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Desmond Floyd for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 25
OWN 24
+5
90.3%
Ryan Johnson punt for 39 yds , Jared Crump returns for 5 yds to the WFrst 29 WAKE FOREST Penalty, illegal block (N/A) to the WFrst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
88.9%
John Wolford pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-2
89.0%
Orville Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
89.2%
John Wolford pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
89.3%
Alexander Kinal punt for 49 yds, downed at the Lvile 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
88.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Lvile 16Similar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+1
88.7%
Dominique Brown run for 1 yd to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+20
88.7%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 5 yds to the Lvile 22 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Johnson) to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
88.9%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 15 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the WFrst 48 Reggie Bonnafon fumbled, recovered by WFrst Tylor HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6FG
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:2912% → 13%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
88.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 24 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
88.0%
Isaiah Robinson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
88.0%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam SerigneSimilar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
88.3%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam Serigne, broken up by Gerod HollimanSimilar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
87.1%
Mike Weaver 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
87.0%
Michael Dyer run for 9 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
87.6%
Michael Dyer run for 5 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
87.6%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Eli Rogers for 5 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
87.7%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+1
87.5%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Eli Rogers for 1 yd to the WFrst 45Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
87.2%
Ryan Johnson punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:4314% → 14%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
86.1%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 7 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (Terell Floyd) to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.6%
Isaiah Robinson run for no gain to the WFrst 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-9
85.1%
John Wolford sacked by B.J. Dubose for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 33
+29
85.9%
John Wolford pass intercepted Gerod Holliman return for 29 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1886% → 84%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
86.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-5
86.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Eli Rogers) to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+3
85.8%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+1
85.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 1 yd to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+46
84.2%
John Wallace 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
84.1%
John Wolford run for 2 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
84.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Orville Reynolds for 3 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+2
84.2%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 2 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+54
84.4%
Alexander Kinal punt for 45 yds , James Quick returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 35 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal block (Trumaine Washington) to the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
82.9%
Dominique Brown run for 1 yd to the Lvile 10Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+2
83.0%
Michael Dyer run for 2 yds to the Lvile 12Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 7
OWN 12
-7
82.6%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 5 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 14
OWN 5
+12
82.1%
Ryan Johnson punt for 51 yds , Jared Crump returns for 12 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12INT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
80.6%
John Wolford pass incomplete to E.J. Scott, broken up by James BurgessSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
80.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 11 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
80.2%
Isaiah Robinson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+13
80.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 13 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
80.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Isaiah Robinson for 2 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+5
80.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense (Deiontrez Mount) to the Lvile 12Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 3
OPP 12
-5
80.0%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Lvile 17Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
80.0%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam SerigneSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
80.8%
John Wolford pass intercepted, touchback. James Burgess return for no gain James Burgess fumbled, recovered by Lvile N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:3080% → 86%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+33
79.5%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 33 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
81.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 14 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
82.0%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 36Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 13
OPP 36
-5
80.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 41Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+12
80.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 12 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+29
85.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 29 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:3516% → 16%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Orville Reynolds for 5 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
83.1%
Orville Reynolds run for 3 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
83.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Jaboree Williams for 8 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
82.4%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 4 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-7
82.1%
John Wolford sacked by James Burgess for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 38Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+6
84.5%
Orville Reynolds run for 6 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
84.1%
Alexander Kinal punt for 24 yds, downed at the Lvile 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 1:0384% → 85%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
84.1%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
84.0%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Michaelee HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+22
83.2%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to James Quick for 22 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.7%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Eli Rogers, broken up by Jalen LatterSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
85.5%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 12 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
85.9%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
85.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+45
85.0%
John Wallace 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
83.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.0%
John Wolford sacked by Lorenzo Mauldin for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
84.3%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 4 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
84.8%
Orville Reynolds run for no gain to the WFrst 24Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+6
85.2%
Alexander Kinal punt for 50 yds , James Quick returns for 6 yds to the Lvile 30 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
83.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+1
83.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+12
83.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 12 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
84.3%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Brandon RadcliffSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
83.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to L.J. Scott for 6 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
84.2%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Michaelee Harris, broken up by Brad WatsonSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
83.4%
Ryan Johnson punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
82.7%
John Wolford pass incomplete to E.J. ScottSimilar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
83.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Isaiah Robinson for 1 yd to the WFrst 43Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-5
83.4%
John Wolford sacked by Lorenzo Mauldin for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 38 John Wolford fumbled, recovered by WFrst Dylan Intemann , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
84.8%
Alexander Kinal punt for 50 yds, downed at the Lvile 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:4383% → 70%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
83.3%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 9Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 13
OWN 9
0
69.5%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Tylor Harris for a loss of 9 yards Reggie Bonnafon fumbled, recovered by WFrst Tylor Harris , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
70.2%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to James Quick for 20 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
72.9%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the Lvile 45 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 17
OWN 35
0
70.2%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Brandon RadcliffSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 17
OWN 35
0
70.1%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to James Quick, broken up by Brad WatsonSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 17
OWN 35
0
68.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
68.5%
Ryan Johnson punt for 51 yds, downed at the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
66.7%
Orville Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 13Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+10
66.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 10 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
66.7%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 2 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.4%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Jaboree WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.6%
John Wolford run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
67.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 4 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
68.0%
Alexander Kinal punt for 41 yds, downed at the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
65.6%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Michaelee Harris for 1 yd to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
65.5%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
63.3%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+1
62.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
56.0%
Orville Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+5
56.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 5 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+3
57.6%
John Wolford pass intercepted Sheldon Rankins return for 3 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:4664% → 83%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
63.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 21 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
67.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-5
67.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (John Miller) to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
64.6%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to James Quick, broken up by Steve DonatellSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+16
61.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 16 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
68.9%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+5
69.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+5
66.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
69.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+3
69.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+16
82.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 16 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
78.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Jared Crump, broken up by Andrew JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
79.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 3 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-7
79.7%
John Wolford sacked by Keith Kelsey for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 18 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
81.0%
Alexander Kinal punt for 47 yds, fair catch by James Quick at the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27FG
5 plays · 51 yds · 2:0280% → 91%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+45
80.1%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Gerald Christian for 45 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
83.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the WFrst 19Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
83.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Eli Rogers, broken up by Anthony Wooding Jr.Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+5
82.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Eli Rogers for 5 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
91.1%
John Wallace 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 0:0013% → 11%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.7%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
86.8%
John Wolford sacked by Lorenzo Mauldin for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 17Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-9
87.9%
John Wolford sacked by Deiontrez Mount for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 8Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 27
OWN 8
+5
88.9%
Alexander Kinal punt for 36 yds , Eli Rogers returns for 5 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:5793% → 95%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
92.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 15 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
93.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
93.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+3
92.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
94.6%
John Wallace 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 30DOWNS
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
93.8%
Isaiah Robinson run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
50
-15
92.9%
Wolford, J deep pass incomplete to Crump, J (Sample,J.), PENALTY WF pass interference (Crump, J) 15 yards to the WF35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+7
94.5%
Isaiah Robinson run for 7 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 18
OWN 42
-7
94.3%
John Wolford sacked by Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 35 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 25
OWN 35
+11
94.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Jaboree Williams for 11 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
94.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to E.J. Scott, broken up by Terell FloydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 31END OF GAME
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:5697% → 97%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
96.5%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 47Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+6
96.4%
Michael Dyer run for 6 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+3
96.5%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+3
96.6%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
SACK · Q3 8:32
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Tylor Harris for a loss of 9 yards Reggie Bonnafon fumbled, recovered by WFrst Tylor Harris , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q4 11:41
Brandon Radcliff run for 16 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
+13.8
FG · Q4 8:12
John Wallace 31 yd FG GOOD
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com