2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadGWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreGWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:12 · Dustin Holder punt for 30 yds, downed at the WFrst 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q3 10:25: Timeout GARDNER-WEBB, clock 10:25 — WAKE win probability +2.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:20: John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 10 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +3.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 6:37: Beatty, L. deep out pass incomplete to Swinton, D., PENALTY WF pass interference (Noel, M) 15 yards to the WF36, 1ST DOWN GWU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST down — GWEB win probability +2.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:59: John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 14 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:16: Tyrell Maxwell run for 5 yds for a TD, (Grayson Gregory KICK) — GWEB win probability +2.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6GWEB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 9:15WAKE 4th & 7 at GWEB 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snapGo for it89.9%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call89.9%88% to makePunt89.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:15GWEB 4th & 13 at GWEB 22, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.6%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%average punt
- Q1 2:12GWEB 4th & 6 at GWEB 14, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.4%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.6%average punt
- Q2 11:08WAKE 4th & 6 at GWEB 19, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snapGo for it85.9%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call86.0%77% to makePunt84.3%−1.8average punt
- Q2 11:08GWEB 4th & 19 at GWEB 43, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it11.6%−0.911% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.5%average punt
- Q2 0:14WAKE 4th & 7 at GWEB 10, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snapGo for it85.3%−0.931% to convertField goalTheir call86.3%88% to makePunt83.3%−2.9average punt
- Q3 15:00GWEB 4th & 14 at GWEB 21, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it10.7%−1.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.4%average punt
- Q3 10:12GWEB 4th & 13 at GWEB 41, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.820% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q3 4:26GWEB 4th & 7 at WAKE 13, down 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.334% to convertField goalTheir call6.5%85% to makePunt3.3%−3.2average punt
- Q3 4:26WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 35, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snapGo for it95.1%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q4 15:00GWEB 4th & 10 at GWEB 34, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q4 14:41WAKE 4th & 1 at GWEB 16, up 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.6%71% to convertField goal94.8%−0.881% to makePunt92.4%−3.2average punt
- Q4 4:07GWEB 4th & 14 at WAKE 18, down 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.117% to convertField goalTheir call0.7%79% to makePunt0.5%−0.2average punt
- Q4 4:07WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 30, up 23Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GWEB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q3 10:20WAKE Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:59WAKE Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:16GWEB Touchdown, down 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.7%97% to makeGo for two1.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1FG14 plays · 64 yds · 5:4591% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
91.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 15 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+21
91.4%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 21 yds to the GrdWb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
91.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Orville Reynolds for 2 yds to the GrdWb 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+11
91.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 11 yds to the GrdWb 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
91.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Orville Reynolds for 4 yds to the GrdWb 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-3
91.4%
John Wolford run for 7 yds to the GrdWb 13 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the GrdWb 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+10
91.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 10 yds to the GrdWb 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-3
90.2%
Lucas Beatty sacked by Shelldon Lewinson for a loss of 3 yards to the GrdWb 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3INT4 plays · 38 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
GWEBDrive 4INT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4911% → 11%
WAKEDrive 5INT3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
89.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Isaiah Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the GrdWb 12Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 11
OPP 12
-6
89.3%
John Wolford sacked by Jebrai Regan for a loss of 6 yards to the GrdWb 18Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 17
OPP 18
0
88.9%
John Wolford pass intercepted Chad Geter return for no gain to the GrdWb 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
88.2%
Tyrell Maxwell pass incomplete to Deonte Swinton, broken up by Merrill NoelSimilar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+3
88.5%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Mike Estes for 3 yds to the GrdWb 14Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+19
88.6%
Dustin Holder punt for 53 yds , Jared Crump returns for 19 yds to the GrdWb 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7FG10 plays · 29 yds · 4:4488% → 89%
Q1 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
88.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Isaiah Robinson for 4 yds to the GrdWb 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+9
88.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 9 yds to the GrdWb 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-7
88.3%
John Wolford sacked by Jebrai Regan for a loss of 7 yards to the GrdWb 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
87.9%
Lucas Beatty pass complete to Kalay Jones for 3 yds to the GrdWb 38Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+14
87.7%
Lucas Beatty pass complete to Deonte Swinton for 14 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-7
87.4%
Lucas Beatty sacked by Thomas Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the GrdWb 45Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
88.6%
Dustin Holder punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jared Crump at the WFrst 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9FG19 plays · 78 yds · 7:2988% → 88%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
88.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 11 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+17
88.7%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 17 yds to the GrdWb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
89.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 12 yds to the GrdWb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
89.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 5 yds to the GrdWb 29Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+7
89.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Orville Reynolds for 7 yds to the GrdWb 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
WAKEDrive 11TD10 plays · 65 yds · 2:3488% → 94%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
87.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 8 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+11
88.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Devin Pike for 11 yds to the GrdWb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
88.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 13 yds to the GrdWb 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
88.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 6 yds to the GrdWb 27Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+6
88.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Jaboree Williams for 6 yds to the GrdWb 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
88.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Devin Pike for 7 yds to the GrdWb 14Similar
Q3 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
94.3%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 10 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 10:12
3RD & 13
OWN 41
0
93.1%
Lucas Beatty pass complete to J.J. Hubbard for no gain to the GrdWb 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13INT5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
95.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 15 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+5
95.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 5 yds to the GrdWb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
95.3%
John Wolford pass intercepted Azziz Higgins return for 4 yds to the GrdWb 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 14MISSED FG6 plays · 38 yds · 2:117% → 6%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
92.6%
Beatty, L. deep out pass incomplete to Swinton, D., PENALTY WF pass interference (Noel, M) 15 yards to the WF36, 1ST DOWN GWU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
92.4%
Lucas Beatty pass complete to Mike Estes for 20 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-4
91.8%
Lucas Beatty sacked by Brandon Chubb for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 19 Lucas Beatty fumbled, recovered by GrdWb Lucas Beatty , return for 0 yards GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+6
92.9%
Lucas Beatty pass complete to J.J. Hubbard for 6 yds to the WFrst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
GWEBDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:125% → 5%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+17
95.2%
Dustin Holder punt for 37 yds , Jared Crump returns for 17 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17TD8 plays · 54 yds · 2:4296% → 99%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
96.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Devin Pike for 5 yds to the GrdWb 49Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+9
96.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 9 yds to the GrdWb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
96.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 15 yds to the GrdWb 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
96.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Devin Pike for 3 yds Devin Pike fumbled, forced by Bradley Taylor, recovered by WFrst Devin PikeSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.3%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 14 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 18MISSED FG20 plays · 63 yds · 7:461% → 0%
Q4 11:53
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
99.0%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Deonte Swinton for 4 yds to the GrdWb 38Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+15
99.0%
Maxwell, T. deep out pass incomplete to Jones, K., PENALTY WF pass interference (Watson, B) 15 yards to the WF47, 1ST DOWN GWU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-9
99.2%
Tyrell Maxwell sacked by Josh Banks for a loss of 9 yards to the GrdWb 46Similar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+15
99.2%
Maxwell, T. right pass incomplete to Swinton, D., PENALTY WF roughing passer (Banks, J) 15 yards to the WF14, 1ST DOWN GWU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
GWEBDrive 20TD7 plays · 47 yds · 2:150% → 3%
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
99.5%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Jordan Jones for 2 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+6
99.5%
Maxwell, T. left pass incomplete to Swinton, D. (Watson, B), PENALTY WF roughing passer (Dawson, G) 6 yards to the WF5, 1ST DOWN GWU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21Uncategorized2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:20
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 10 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+3.6
TD · Q4 11:59
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 14 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+2.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:37
Beatty, L. deep out pass incomplete to Swinton, D., PENALTY WF pass interference (Noel, M) 15 yards to the WF36, 1ST DOWN GWU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST down
-2.7