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WAKE

Wake Forest 10 at UL Monroe 17

ULM
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2014 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:12 · Alexander Kinal punt for 32 yds, downed at the LaMon 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior−4.2Home team on offense−1.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 4:50: Justin Manton 30 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +6.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:02: John Wolford pass intercepted for a TD Mitch Lane return for 31 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK) — ULM win probability +18.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:40: Orville Reynolds run for 9 yds to the WFrst 29 — WAKE win probability +5.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:33: WAKE FOREST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the WFrst 33 — ULM win probability +6.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:37: Pete Thomas run for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK) — ULM win probability +29.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 8 of 11WAKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:57WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:10ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:02ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:49ULM 4th & 12 at WAKE 34, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    38.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:01WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:44ULM 4th & 12 at WAKE 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    37.1%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:18WAKE 4th & 20 at WAKE 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:24ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:53WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:41ULM 4th & 19 at WAKE 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:23WAKE 4th & 30 at WAKE 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−3.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:43WAKE 4th & 4 at ULM 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−4.9
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:02ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:24ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:51WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 37, up 10
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:50ULM 4th & 3 at WAKE 13, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%−0.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−9.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:12WAKE 4th & 11 at WAKE 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−4.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:47ULM 4th & 2 at WAKE 48, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%−2.2
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:19WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:19ULM 4th & 12 at WAKE 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:24WAKE 4th & 13 at WAKE 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−7.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:06WAKE 4th & 21 at WAKE 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:10WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:02ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:37ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:5864% → 63%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
36.2%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 10Similar
Q1 14:49
1ST & 15
OWN 10
0
36.3%
Orville Reynolds run for no gain to the WFrst 10Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+9
36.5%
John Wolford run for 9 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+2
36.9%
John Wolford run for 2 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
37.1%
Alexander Kinal punt for 50 yds, downed at the LaMon 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3537% → 36%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
37.1%
Centarius Donald run for 6 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
37.4%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
37.2%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+25
36.2%
Kevin Johnson 0 Yd Punt Return (Mike Weaver Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3DOWNS
16 plays · 35 yds · 5:0936% → 36%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
36.4%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
36.3%
Centarius Donald run for 9 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
36.6%
Centarius Donald run for no gain to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+1
36.4%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
36.6%
Centarius Donald run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 1
50
0
36.9%
Tyler Cain run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 1
50
+4
36.9%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
37.0%
Centarius Donald run for 6 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
37.1%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+5
36.8%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
37.3%
Tyler Cain run for 1 yd to the WFrst 31Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+2
37.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tony Cook for 2 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-5
37.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 12
OPP 34
0
36.7%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 12
OPP 34
0
36.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3364% → 64%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
35.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 4 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
35.4%
Orville Reynolds run for no gain to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+2
35.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 2 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
35.9%
Alexander Kinal punt for 41 yds, downed at the LaMon 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:0836% → 36%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
36.2%
Tyler Cain run for 2 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+29
36.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
50
+7
37.4%
Pete Thomas run for 7 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
37.6%
Tyler Cain run for 3 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
37.6%
Tyler Cain run for 2 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-5
37.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+6
36.6%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 6 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
37.1%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee Jackson, broken up by Kevin JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-5
36.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 42Similar
Q1 1:44
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
36.1%
Justin Manton punt for 38 yds, downed at the WFrst 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 3:1963% → 63%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
36.6%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+6
36.6%
Orville Reynolds run for 6 yds to the WFrst 10Similar
Q1 0:46
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+10
36.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 10 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
36.2%
Orville Reynolds run for 1 yd to the WFrst 21Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-10
36.2%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Personal Foul (Dylan Intemann) to the WFrst 11Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 19
OWN 10
-9
36.3%
John Wolford sacked by Ray Stovall for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 1Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 28
OWN 1
+8
37.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 8 yds to the WFrst 9Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 20
OWN 9
0
37.5%
Alexander Kinal punt for 51 yds, downed at the LaMon 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4837% → 36%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
37.4%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Rashon CeaserSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
36.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 4 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
37.0%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
36.3%
Justin Manton punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jared Crump at the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:2764% → 63%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
36.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (A'Lique Terry) to the WFrst 5Similar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+4
36.8%
Orville Reynolds run for 4 yds to the WFrst 9Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+9
36.8%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 9 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 2
OWN 18
-6
36.5%
John Wolford sacked by Michael Johnson and Cody Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 12Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
37.0%
Alexander Kinal punt for 34 yds, downed at the WFrst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:4938% → 35%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
38.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 9 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+2
38.4%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
39.3%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
39.3%
Centarius Donald run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 15
OPP 40
-4
35.6%
Brayle Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 44 Brayle Brown fumbled, recovered by LaMonSimilar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 19
OPP 44
+39
34.6%
Justin Manton punt for 44 yds for a touchback UL MONROE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -20 yds · 2:1266% → 64%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
34.3%
John Wolford sacked by Jacob Tyson for a loss of 15 yards to the WFrst 10Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 25
OWN 10
-1
34.9%
Orville Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 9Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 26
OWN 9
-4
35.9%
John Wolford sacked by Jacob Tyson for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 5Similar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 30
OWN 5
0
36.5%
Alexander Kinal punt for 47 yds, downed at the LaMon 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:0337% → 38%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
37.0%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 8
50
0
37.4%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 8
50
+13
36.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Centarius Donald for 13 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
37.7%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the WFrst 36 Centarius Donald fumbled, recovered by WFrst Ryan JanvionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:1767% → 71%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
33.3%
Orville Reynolds run for 3 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
31.5%
Orville Reynolds run for 3 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+22
31.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 22 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
30.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 8 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+3
29.2%
Orville Reynolds run for 3 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
29.0%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 6 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
28.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam SerigneSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
29.2%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+38
29.1%
Mike Weaver 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2229% → 28%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
29.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Rashon Ceaser for 6 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
29.7%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
28.6%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
28.4%
Justin Manton punt for 67 yds, downed at the WFrst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0270% → 70%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
30.5%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Cory Helms) to the WFrst 1Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
30.5%
John Wolford run for no gain to the WFrst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2328% → 26%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
28.2%
Tyler Cain run for 1 yd to the LaMon 29Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
27.0%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
25.9%
Justin Manton punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2972% → 72%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
28.1%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
27.9%
John Wolford run for 4 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+4
27.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 4 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
27.7%
Alexander Kinal punt for 59 yds, downed at the LaMon 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17FG
19 plays · 83 yds · 6:5226% → 31%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
26.2%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+1
26.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Centarius Donald for 1 yd to the LaMon 9Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+6
25.0%
Pete Thomas run for 6 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
26.0%
Centarius Donald run for no gain to the LaMon 15Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
25.8%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the LaMon 16Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
24.6%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Tony CookSimilar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 9
OWN 16
+15
24.0%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Kevin Johnson) to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
26.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 12 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
27.2%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
27.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 3 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+23
26.1%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 23 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
29.5%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 5
OPP 26
0
29.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Alec Osborne for no gain to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
29.5%
Tyler Cain run for 6 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
26.9%
Tyler Cain run for 4 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+2
26.8%
Tyler Cain run for 2 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+1
25.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 1 yd to the WFrst 13Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
31.4%
Justin Manton 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18INT TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4173% → 54%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.8%
Orville Reynolds run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+31
45.7%
John Wolford pass intercepted for a TD Mitch Lane return for 31 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:5054% → 50%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
46.1%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
46.4%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
47.0%
Orville Reynolds run for 4 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
48.3%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
49.7%
Alexander Kinal punt for 32 yds, downed at the LaMon 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2054% → 52%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
54.2%
Pete Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
52.9%
Centarius Donald run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 4
50
+2
54.3%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tony Cook for 2 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
52.4%
Justin Manton punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jared Crump at the WFrst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:2153% → 50%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
46.7%
Orville Reynolds run for 9 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
43.9%
Orville Reynolds run for 1 yd to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
45.9%
Orville Reynolds run for no gain to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
47.1%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
48.5%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
50.3%
Alexander Kinal punt for 57 yds, downed at the LaMon 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:5251% → 51%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
50.9%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tyler Cain for 10 yds to the LaMon 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
51.7%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
51.5%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Centarius Donald for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+31
51.2%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Tony Cook for 31 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
57.6%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 5
OPP 33
0
59.0%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-7
59.1%
Pete Thomas sacked by Zachary Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
54.2%
Pete Thomas pass incomplete to Kenzee JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
51.2%
Justin Manton punt for 39 yds, downed at the WFrst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4351% → 48%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
48.6%
Orville Reynolds run for 2 yds to the WFrst 3Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
49.1%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Matt JamesSimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+17
50.7%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 17 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
47.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 8 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
45.5%
Orville Reynolds run for no gain to the WFrst 28Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-11
47.7%
John Wolford sacked by Malcolm Edmond for a loss of 11 yards to the WFrst 17Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
52.4%
Alexander Kinal punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Junior Williams at the LaMon 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:4154% → 93%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
53.7%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 10 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
57.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Kenzee Jackson for 5 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
58.7%
Centarius Donald run for 4 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
58.6%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
59.8%
UL MONROE Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 47Similar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+16
57.2%
Tyler Cain run for 16 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
61.4%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Alec Osborne for 15 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
61.7%
Centarius Donald run for 5 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+3
61.9%
Centarius Donald run for 3 yds to the WFrst 8Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+2
60.0%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Alec Osborne for 2 yds to the WFrst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
62.5%
Centarius Donald run for 1 yd to the WFrst 5Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
62.8%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Centarius Donald for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 9Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.5%
Pete Thomas run for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:2114% → 11%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Orville Reynolds for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 24Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-10
86.2%
John Wolford sacked by Gerrand Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the WFrst 14Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
87.5%
John Wolford sacked by Ray Stovall and Cody Robinson for 0 yards to the WFrst 14Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
88.8%
Alexander Kinal punt for 51 yds, downed at the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26END OF HALF
9 plays · 41 yds · 1:3193% → 97%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
92.9%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+39
94.5%
Centarius Donald run for 39 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
96.3%
Tyler Cain run for 9 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+2
96.9%
Centarius Donald run for 2 yds to the WFrst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-6
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 19Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 16
OPP 19
-5
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:37
Pete Thomas run for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)
+29.7
TD · Q3 4:02
John Wolford pass intercepted for a TD Mitch Lane return for 31 yds for a TD, (Justin Manton KICK)
+18.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:33
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the WFrst 33
+6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com